The National Alliance has achieved an unprecedented victory in the first round of voting in the French legislative election. In order to prevent the far-right from gaining an absolute majority in parliament in the second round of voting on July 7, both the pan-syriza and the ruling party camp have embarked on a strategy of "abandoning the guarantee", and although the process has not been smooth, both sides may even consider building a "grand coalition" against the far-right.
Agence France-Presse reported that candidates who advance to the second round must make a decision by 6 p.m. on July 2 if they want to withdraw from the election. Some parties are considering abstaining from voting in the "three-legged" constituencies in order to prevent as much as possible the eventual victory of far-right candidates.
According to the report, due to the high turnout in the first round, which reached 66.7% of registered voters, the number of constituencies in which the top vote share of the far-right, pan-left coalition and the ruling party camp formed a "three-way competition" may exceed 300.
On June 30, the far right came in full swing, garnering more than 10.6 million votes and 33.1% support. This is the highest number of votes ever cast by the National Alliance in national elections (except for the second round of the 2022 presidential election).
The major victory for the National Alliance also came in the fact that 39 candidates were directly elected to parliament in the first round with a large number of votes, including the party's spiritual leader, Marine Le Pen, who ran in Pas-de-Calais. The National Alliance, in alliance with Republican "rebel" Theotti, qualified for 443 out of 577 constituencies, leading the way in 296 of them.
The pan-left coalition New Popular Front, which received 27.99 per cent of the votes, has won 32 seats in the first round. But Roussel, the national secretary of the French Communist Party in the Nord department, was defeated by his far-right opponent, and another left-wing representative, Lüfen, had a difficult path to the Sommes despite the withdrawal of the ruling candidate.
The ruling party, which lost the election at a loss (20.8% of the vote), is still assessing its gains and losses. The incumbent Prime Minister Attar is likely to be one of a dozen cabinet members to win the first round, with four ministerial-level officials in a bad situation. Three other people (State Secretary Aglesdi-Lubashi, Ministerial Representative Gaffnu and Ministerial Representative Kadabi) have announced their withdrawal from the election.
Macron had already called for a "broad coalition of democratic and republican positions" on the night of the polling day, and convened a cabinet meeting at the Élysée Palace at noon on July 1 to discuss the withdrawal.
Some of the Baath candidates, who received the third largest number of votes in the first round, have already announced their abstention. Cassenave Perret, who ran in the Sarthe department, is in third place behind Marie-Caroline Le Pen, the eldest sister of the spiritual leader of the National Alliance, Marie-Caroline Le Pen, and has decided to withdraw from the race.
However, there are also ruling candidates who intend to continue running on the grounds that they have more potential votes than pan-left candidates, or that they believe that withdrawing from the election will only benefit the far right. As a leading figure, Baath spokesman Signon, who ran in Val-de-Marne, is determined to stay the course.
On the question of whether to support a far-left candidate, it seems difficult to reach a consensus within the ruling party's camp. Former Prime Minister Philippe and current Economy Minister Le Maire both take a position of "neither supporting the far left nor the far right", the current speaker of the National Assembly, Brown Pivet, advocates a "case-by-case" approach, and the leftists in the ruling party believe that they should unconditionally support the far-left candidates.
In an effort to counter the far-right, Le Maire called on voters to support a "social democrat" candidate in the second round of voting, but the Indomitable France party was not included in his list.
Attar plans to hold a video conference with his party's candidates on the afternoon of July 1. His attitude is that anything is fine as long as he does not support the "disastrous approach" of the far right. He has also previously said that the ruling camp is the "best option" to "avoid an absolute majority for the National Alliance".
The parties within the "New Popular Front" have instructed their third-ranked candidate to withdraw from the election, but for the indomitable French party, this rule only applies if the National Alliance is ahead. The far-left candidate running in Calvados abandoned the election to make way for former Prime Minister Borne, who lagged behind his far-right rival in terms of support.
However, with Interior Minister Darmanin narrowly ahead of his far-right rival's constituency, the indomitable French candidate continues to run. In contrast, a Green candidate withdrew from the Haute-Loire in favor of Vauquier, who was only two percentage points ahead of the National Rassemblement candidate.
Where possible, traditional right-wing Republican candidates tend to fight until the last minute, such as Mino, a member of the National Assembly seeking re-election, who is in third place in Oise, behind the pan-left and the National Alliance candidates, but has no intention of giving up.
Opinion polls conducted before other parties adopted the "waiver" strategy showed that the far-right bloc led by Bardra would have a relative majority of at least 240 seats, and could even grab an absolute majority of 295 seats.
Tanturiel, head of pollster Ipsos, commented: "Even if voters do not blindly follow the instructions of the leaders of the political parties, it is likely that there will still be an effect that is not conducive to the National Alliance." Therefore, the starting point (of the far right) is more likely to be a relative majority than an absolute majority. ”
To counter the threat of the far-right prospecting to come to power, ruling politicians such as the current speaker of the National Assembly, Brown Pivet, have begun to call for a "broad coalition" from the French Communist Party to the (traditionally right) Republican Party after the second round of voting on July 7.
But the first secretary of the Socialist Party, For, sternly rejected the proposal of such a "ruling coalition", saying that he would not act as a "spare tire" for a "collapsing majority". At the same time, in response to Attar's suggestion that the "republican forces" should form a "statecraft majority", Faure also presupposed.
Barderra, the leader of the National Alliance, said before the first round of voting that he would not be in the prime minister if he did not achieve an absolute majority, but the party's deputy chairman, Chenu, appeared to be trying to correct that position.
"It depends on how the National Assembly is formed," he said. If we do need to seek support, we will take responsibility for dealing with the French people. ”
In a social media post, Mr. Baldera said he was "willing to debate with Mélenchon" but rejected a "war of words" against Attar on the grounds that the French had "two options" of either putting "the far left in power" or establishing a government of "national unity."
Mélenchon has agreed to hold a debate between the two camps, but he will not participate in it himself. If necessary, other members of the indomitable French leadership will "fight".
(Editor: Dong Yu)