laitimes

Why is the flood more intense this year? What does the future hold? Expert analysis

author:Nanyang Demonstration Zone Politics and Law

Since the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River entered the plum rainy season, heavy rainfall has come one after another in the south, and the amount of rainfall and the number of rainy days are obviously high. The cumulative rainfall of more than 80 national meteorological stations such as Changsha in Hunan, Hangzhou in Zhejiang and Anshun in Guizhou broke the highest record in the same period.

Under the heavy rainfall for several days, the flood control situation in Hunan is grim. The third largest river, Zijiang, has received two numbered floods within 24 hours, the largest river, the Xiangjiang River, has experienced two numbered floods, and Dongting Lake also ushered in the No. 1 flood of this year on June 30, and many hydrological stations have exceeded the alarm or even exceeded the water level.

A red warning was issued, and heavy rain continued in many places in Hunan today

The Hunan Provincial Meteorological Observatory issued a red warning for heavy rain on July 1, with heavy rain in Changsha, Xiangtan, Shaoyang, Yueyang, Yiyang, Huaihua and other areas, heavy rain in some areas, and local heavy rain accompanied by strong convective weather.

Accurate prediction to ensure the safety of the reservoir during the flood

Hunan is the province with the largest number of reservoirs in the country, with more than 13,300 large, medium and small reservoirs. In the face of the grim situation, how can these reservoirs survive the flood safely?

There are more than 1,300 reservoirs in Changde, Hunan, of which 260 are dangerous reservoirs. The local government not only sent additional manpower to carry out 24-hour inspections of the sick and dangerous reservoirs, but also combined the monitoring and reporting data of the city's rainfall stations, hydrological water level stations, and reservoir stations with the monitoring data of rain measurement radars and meteorological satellites to improve the ability of early warning, forecasting and prediction of rainfall and floods, and realize the scientific scheduling of water projects such as rivers and reservoirs in the city. Up to now, Changde City has not collapsed a single embankment, and there has been no major danger.

Compared with previous years, this year's flood situation is early and strong

Not only Hunan, but since the beginning of the flood season this year, there have been more than 10 numbered floods in major rivers across the country. According to experts from the Ministry of Water Resources, compared with previous years, this year's flood situation came earlier and stronger. Why?

First of all, the Beijiang, Hanjiang and Dongjiang rivers in the Pearl River basin have formed six numbered floods in April, two months earlier than usual. Among them, the No. 1 and No. 2 floods of the Beijiang River are the earliest numbered floods and catastrophic floods respectively since the statistics of the major rivers in the country were available in 1998.

The strength is reflected in the concurrent flooding of major rivers this year, and some sections of the main stream of the Xijiang River and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin in the Pearl River basin have been overalerted in the past few days. Since the beginning of the flood season, a total of 471 small and medium-sized rivers in 21 provinces across the country have experienced floods above the warning level, which is 1 times more than the same period in normal years.

Major flooding is expected in several river basins on the mainland in July

It is predicted that this round of rainfall will continue until July 2, and the heavy rainfall area will remain stable in the Yangtze River, Taihu Lake and Xijiang River basin of the Pearl River Basin. After that, the main rain area may lift northward in stages. According to experts from the Ministry of Water Resources, it is expected that in July, major floods may occur in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the Huai River, the Haihe River Basin, the Songhua River and the Liao River.

Why are the floods more intense this year? The rain belt is moving northward, what is the future rainfall situation, and which areas should be focused on prevention? Poke the video ↓↓↓ to listen to the introduction of Zhou Lixian, a meteorological analyst at the China Meteorological Administration.

Zhou Lixian, meteorological analyst of the China Meteorological Administration: In June this year, there was a lot of rain in the south, especially since June 17, in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, as well as Guangxi, Guizhou and other places. Some stations such as Huangshan in Anhui, Hangzhou in Zhejiang, Guilin in Guangxi, and Liuzhou all received more than 900 mm of rainfall.

Why is the flood more intense this year? What does the future hold? Expert analysis

The rainfall is mainly due to the fact that they are on the edge of the subtropical high, and the strong warm and humid air flow transports water vapor from the tropical ocean along the edge of the subtropical high.

Why is the flood more intense this year? What does the future hold? Expert analysis

It is expected that from the evening of July 1 to 2, the main rain belt of the mainland will remain in Guangxi, Guizhou and other places from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and will also be accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.

Why is the flood more intense this year? What does the future hold? Expert analysis

It is expected that from July 1 to 3, some areas in Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Guizhou and other places will have a high meteorological risk of flash floods, urban waterlogging and small and medium-sized river floods.

Why is the flood more intense this year? What does the future hold? Expert analysis

It is expected that from the 3rd, in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, as well as Guangxi, Guizhou and other places, the weather will turn around, and the rain will weaken, and from the 4th to the 8th, the rain center will shift to the north, and the rain in the north will increase and intensify. There will be moderate to heavy rain in the eastern part of Northwest China, North China, Huanghuai, and the central and southern parts of Northeast China, with localized heavy rain, and will also be accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms, strong winds, hail and short-term heavy precipitation.