#长文创作激励计划#
Continue connecting to the previous issue.
Stage 5:
The 9/11 attacks on the United States by Muslim extremists – some linked to Saudi Arabia and jihadists who prevented the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan – and the invasion of Indian territory from Pakistan have once again changed global politics. From India's point of view, the United States is now embroiled in its "global war on terror", which New Delhi has expressed general support. But India is concerned about the catastrophe suffered by the invasion of Iraq under President Bush to overthrow Saddam Hussein and withdraw Iraq from nuclear, chemical and biological weapons that are fundamentally non-existent. All of a sudden, India is back in the business of having a triangular relationship with China, or as Minister Jashankar put it, India "sees the benefits of working with different countries on different issues." "Doing so means engaging with Russia as well as China, both of which are making a comeback on the world stage, both economically and politically (with Russia as an emerging oil power).
President Bush came to the White House in 2001 to pay tribute to the entrepreneurial achievements of the Indian diaspora in his native state of Texas and elsewhere, especially in the high-tech sector. In an effort to improve relations with New Delhi, he negotiated a historic nuclear deal in 2005 that abandoned long-standing U.S. opposition to India's nuclear ambitions. In return for the commitment of the United States to cooperate fully with the United States in the field of civilian nuclear energy, India has taken the extraordinary step of separating its civilian and military nuclear facilities and placing all its civilian nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards and inspections. President Bush made a successful visit to India in 2006. In the first decade of the 21st century, India achieved an annual economic growth rate of 6 to 8 percent and is known for providing credit technology services to the United States and the world. These factors have boosted India's confidence, enabled deeper relations with the United States, and reignited hope in Washington that India could eventually become a regional counterweight to China in its era of higher economic growth.
President Ma Obama made two very successful visits to India. He welcomed India's diplomacy on climate change and its pressure on Iran to limit its nuclear program. Hundreds of people were killed in the 2008 attack on the Taj Mahal Palace hotel in Mumbai, which refocused India's attention on Pakistan's ability to support India's dangerous Muslim extremists. In order to improve relations with India, President Ma held a "strategic dialogue" with Indian leaders and supported India's proposal to join the UN Security Council. Washington has strengthened its military ties with India and reached an agreement on cybersecurity cooperation. In terms of economic openness, India has disappointed its trading partners, including the United States, in easing trade barriers, even though Indian companies are going global for the first time. In 2001, the Bush administration helped organize the lowering of barriers to trade and investment, and the impetus began with the Doha Round, hence the name Doha Development Round. In the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, there were fears of global instability, so the Doha Round was designed (perhaps over-hyped) to help the poorest countries through trade rather than aid.
But the negotiations failed after 10 years, in part because India and other developing countries feared that the market would be overwhelmed with imports from China and the poorest developing countries, which could produce goods at a lower cost than India. During this period, India reduced some tariffs, albeit less than in many other countries. Chad Bowen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics said the Indian government's attitude towards the WTO "oscillates between reluctant players and full-blown deliberate obstructionists." Europe and the United States have also blocked the success of the Doha Round because they oppose lowering barriers to agricultural imports, which could help developing countries increase their exports. The Doha Round is a follow-up to the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. The Uruguay Round of trade negotiations resulted in the establishment of the World Trade Organization in 1995, which marked a major effort by the United States to win the reciprocity of trading partners in developing countries, and to some extent, this effort was successful.
However, the Doha Round, which sought to give this process a step further, was stymied in the second decade of the 21st century, especially after the election of Trump in 2016, who had a completely different worldview of international trade. Mr. Trump has been hostile to trade and has imposed steep tariffs on imports in order to pressure China, India, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and the European Union to lower tariff barriers. In the case of India, Trump's strategy has so far not worked.
Stage 6: The Modi Era
During his tenure as chief minister from 2001 to 2014, Modi relied on his track record in fighting corruption and boosting business to win a historic victory in the 2014 general election. He was re-elected in 2019. During Modi's first term, the achievements were remarkable. Modi has simplified India's tax system with a unified goods and services tax aimed at encouraging business activity, although its implementation may affect some economic activities. Modi reformed bankruptcy regulations and adopted other measures to attract foreign investment. He also invested in roads, airports, public transport systems and sanitation (most notably more than 100 million toilets). In an effort to reduce black market activity, Modi withdrew most of India's hard currency from circulation through a "demonetization" program that was poorly implemented to undermine the economy but still earned him an anti-corruption reputation. In his second term after landslide re-election, Modi shocked many Indians by trying to delegitimize Muslims, who make up one-seventh of India's population. He unilaterally revoked a special provision in the Indian Constitution granting Jammu and Kashmir special autonomy status.
Jammu and Kashmir, India's only Muslim-majority state, sits on the border with Pakistan, where protests have sparked three wars and decades of mistrust. To suppress dissent from this policy, he arrested Muslim government officials, intellectuals, and business leaders, and held them without charge. In 2019, he established a fast-track path to citizenship for refugees from neighbouring countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan), but limited the benefits to six religions (Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Christian and Parsi) but not Muslims who predominate in these countries. The move has raised concerns about a national register of citizens, which could make it impossible for Muslims to "prove" their citizenship with official birth certificates and be vulnerable to deportation. Overall, Modi promotes a Hindu-dominated nationalism that has long enjoyed the support of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its radical fringe groups.
These radical fringe groups interpret India's history as a centuries-long struggle against Muslim invaders against foreign domination. This pattern may have been established in Modi's early career. As the chief minister of Gujarat, he was blatantly accused of taking the opposite attitude during the anti-Muslim riots in his state. Hundreds of people were killed in a few days in that riot. Suspicions of Modi's involvement, or at least of an indifferent attitude, led the US State Department to refuse to grant him a visit visa until he became prime minister. U.S. President Basil Obama received Modi after his election President Ma him and worked with India to develop low-carbon energy. In his last meeting in 2016, he elevated India to a "major defense partner." However, in the larger foreign policy context, India under Modi has not always kept pace with the United States. In addition to its desire to play the role of a global leader, its main focus is on its unstable neighbors, including China's relations with Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal and other South Asian countries.
India helped establish the so-called BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as leaders of the group of "emerging economies". As a member of the group, India has been blamed for helping to undermine the chances of success in global trade negotiations under the Doha Round. Trump's election as president of the United States has upset India and many countries. But under President Ma, the United States has lost some of its status in New Delhi's eyes. The global financial crisis that began in the United States in 2007-08 weakened the ability of the United States to educate the world about nuclear proliferation, not to mention the superiority of its so-called free-market economic model. For years, India has viewed the United States as an arbitrary "hegemon" in Asia and has complained about its presence in Afghanistan, which has led to fears that the Trump administration's determination to withdraw troops from Afghanistan will strengthen the forces of Taliban-aligned Muslim jihadists. President Trump's capricious and unsuccessful attempts to stop North Korea's nuclear program, as well as his trade wars with China, Japan and South Korea, have failed to inspire confidence in New Delhi.
According to some reports, neither did President Trump himself. When Modi expressed concern about Trump at a meeting in Manila in 2017, Trump replied: "There is no China on your borders. Modi is said to have been shocked by his ignorance. The Trump administration's ability to work with India in a geostrategic or regional context has been hampered by its determination to confront New Delhi on economic issues, particularly trade. Since the beginning of 2018, the Trump administration has raised 14% tariffs on India's exports to the United States. In retaliation, India has imposed new tariffs on about 6 percent of US exports to India. Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum, citing national security threats, have hurt India, the world's third-largest steel producer after China and Japan. The Trump administration also revoked India's eligibility for trade preferences under the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences, which India enjoyed for 45 years.
As of mid-2020, there has been no progress in resolving these disputes. But India is also a cautious trading partner with other countries. It refused to join the Comprehensive Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a partnership established by the United States under President Obama President Ma but withdrew under President Trump. India has also refused to join the 15-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement. In both cases, India has been concerned that joining such a trading bloc would trigger an influx of Chinese imports that threaten Indian manufacturers. In this way, the minister described the attitude of India: on the one hand, we should not return to the old dogmas of economic self-sufficiency and import substitution. At the same time, however, it is equally dangerous to embrace the new dogma of globalization without a cost-benefit analysis. "In another example of suspected dominance by foreign powers, including China, India has announced plans to impose restrictions on the ways in which high-tech companies collect, store and use information about Indian citizens.
Analysts say the case builds on similar measures in Europe and is designed to guard against the excessive influence and power of Google, Amazon, Facebook and other American tech giants. However, the Modi government's insistence on "data localization" could lead to a breakdown in data collection, hindering progress and efficiency. Another concern is that India, like China, could enter the database for political purposes. India decided in June 2020 to cut off nearly 60 Chinese mobile apps, including TikTok, which is used by many young people in India. This decision is a further demonstration of India's determination to achieve greater self-sufficiency in science and technology and telecommunications. Like many countries, India has re-emphasized self-sufficiency in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak due to sudden concerns about dependence on foreign supply chains for imported medical products. In May, Modi announced an economic bailout package of more than $260 billion, reminiscent of Gandhi's Swades campaign during the freedom movement, explaining that India needed to support the program to emphasize economic independence.
"Be outspoken about the situation on the ground!" Prime Minister Modi said. "Who can stop us from becoming a self-reliant India?" 【To be continued】Please stay tuned for the next issue.