In the 2024 U.S. election, if Trump is re-elected, his political strategy and decisions will have a profound impact on the global political and economic landscape. This article will analyze 10 possible policies for Trump and explore their potential impact on international relations, the economy, and China and the Chinese stock market.
1. Social media policy: Trump's attitude toward TikTok may undergo a 180-degree shift. Although he has opposed the ban on TikTok, if he is re-elected, he may revisit the issue for national security reasons. Trump may use TikTok to counterbalance other social media giants, such as Facebook, but may eventually choose to ban it in order to protect U.S. data security.
2. Russia-Ukraine conflict: Trump is likely to adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy, seeking to repair relations with Russia and reduce aid to Ukraine. Such a strategy may ease the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term, but it may also raise concerns among European allies.
3. U.S. military spending in South Korea: Trump may ask South Korea to increase cost support for U.S. military in South Korea, or else there could be economic pressure on South Korea to move key industries to the U.S. to create jobs.
4. U.S. military spending in Japan: While Japan has increased its military spending, Trump is likely to demand more, which could increase tensions between the U.S. and Japan.
5. Reduce wars: As a businessman-turned-politician, Trump may be inclined to avoid unnecessary military conflicts, which could reduce wars and conflicts around the globe to some extent.
6. Israeli-Palestinian issue: Trump is likely to continue to support Israel, which could increase tensions in the Middle East.
7. Border wall construction: Trump is likely to continue funding for the construction of a border wall to deter illegal immigration, which could spark criticism from human rights groups.
8. Withdrawing from international organizations: Trump is likely to continue withdrawing from some international organizations, which could weaken the international influence of the United States.
9. The return of manufacturing: Trump may take steps to attract large companies back to the United States and improve the level of manufacturing in the United States. This could include banning the import of electric vehicles containing Chinese-made components.
10. Tariffs and sanctions: Trump is likely to continue to raise tariffs and impose high-tech sanctions on countries like China, which could exacerbate global trade tensions.
Trump's re-election could bring about a series of policy changes that will not only affect the domestic political and economic environment in the United States, but also have a significant impact on the global political and economic landscape. Trump's policies are likely to pose some challenges for China and the Chinese stock market in particular. However, these challenges may also serve as a driving force for China's further reform, opening-up, and technological innovation.
In today's globalized world, the policies of the leaders of any country will have an impact on the world. Trump's return will undoubtedly bring more uncertainty to the world. But in any case, countries need to be prepared for possible policy changes and fluctuations in the global economy.