Cotton market: At the end of the second quarter, in the domestic textile industry, the market fell into a trough, the number of enterprises suspending work and production increased, the demand follow-up sentiment was sluggish, and all links fell into a deserted situation! Up to now, the price of Zhengzhou cotton 2409 hovers around 14500~14900 yuan/ton, and the price is at a low level!
On the supply side, the summary data of the agency shows that as of the end of the second quarter, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.862 million tons, an increase of 25.6% over the same period last year.
In terms of new crops, the scale of cotton planting in the main producing areas has decreased slightly, but due to the relatively suitable weather, cotton yields are expected to increase, and the overall bumper yield is expected to be higher. In terms of external disk, U.S. cotton planting expanded by nearly 14%, and the U.S. USDA report showed that in the global 24/25 year, cotton production capacity was 25.94 million tons, an increase of 1.16 million tons year-on-year, and the supply pattern was relatively loose!
Due to the expansion of global cotton production capacity, ginning enterprises in Xinjiang are under pressure, the operating rate of enterprises has dropped sharply, and the fundamentals of loose production capacity have a strong impact on the cotton market!
On the demand side, in the first half of the year, the domestic textile industry was sluggish, spinning enterprises had fewer orders, the operating rate was low, some enterprises had greater inventory pressure, and the downstream demand was mainly cautious.
Oil price adjustment, today is the weekend, according to the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the domestic crude oil rate of change is implemented at Friday's level, and the reference crude oil price is the price of Thursday's closing! According to the agency data, in the 10 working days of this round of pricing cycle, in the first 6 working days of the end, the rate of change of crude oil was 2.54%, and the oil price rose by 135 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the price increase of 92/95 gasoline at 0.1~0.12 yuan/liter!
However, on Friday, international oil prices rose and fell, with U.S. oil and cloth oil falling by $0.72 and $0.8 respectively, of which, WTI crude oil was quoted at $83.16 and Brent crude oil was $86.54 per barrel, and U.S. oil rose 0.4% and 2.1% during the week.
According to the analysis of the agency, due to the domestic oil price to the three crude oil as a reference, oil prices fell on Friday, which also means that on July 8, the 7th working day of the current round of pricing cycle, the domestic crude oil rate of change may have signs of rising and falling, however, whether the decline in oil prices can be sustained, the market view is relatively clear, the mainstream institutions believe that the decline in oil prices is difficult to sustain, and international oil prices will still rise next week!
On the one hand, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed that the unemployment rate was as high as 4.1%, the U.S. manufacturing data was poor, the Fed cut interest rates or the general trend has been set, next week, Fed Chairman Powell's speech or will further fulfill the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is bound to restrain the strength of the dollar, good for crude oil prices!
On the other hand, due to the market's optimism about the outlook for seasonal energy consumption, and OPEC+'s plan to continue to cut production, superimposed, concerns about geopolitical risk spillover!
Therefore, the decline in international oil prices is difficult to sustain, next week, the crude oil market or will maintain a strong trend, and the current round of pricing cycle into the end, domestic oil prices are still expected to expand, the author will continue to pay attention to the development of the market, timely update the news of oil price adjustment! Tell each other!
Attached: On July 8, the price of 92/95 gasoline at gas stations in various provinces and cities across the country!
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