The emergence of a "pro-American" president in Iran has brought a sense of crisis to China and Russia, and Iran is obviously not qualified to "play with the heart" of the United States! Has the camp against US hegemony loosened? What will be the impact on China and Russia?
Grassroots counterattack! Iran has elected a new president
and the master of strategic deception - the United States to play with the eyes, Iran is simply not qualified.
On July 6, local time, Iran elected a new leader, 69-year-old Pezeshkian, a former member of parliament for the health system. When it comes to Iran's election, it feels a little incredible.
First, Pezeshkian does not have a strong political background, but is more like a grassroots counterattack; Second, there does not seem to be much skepticism in Iranian society about the emergence of a "pro-American" president, which is inconsistent with Iran's national conditions; Thirdly, Pezeshkian called for improved relations between the United States and Iran, but the United States refused to buy it.
As the U.S. side has said, the U.S. hardline policy toward Iran will not change, nor will sanctions be lifted, and this election does not reflect "fairness and freedom" and cannot represent the Iranian people. The U.S. side stressed that Iran's elections will not bring any changes to Iran's human rights and political issues, but if Iran can meet U.S. interests, the U.S. will make corresponding diplomatic efforts to ease relations.
The mentality of Iranian nationals and the top brass is not quite the same.
Having enjoyed the prosperity brought by the Pahlavi dynasty, Iran's post-60s and post-70s generations generally have expectations for the "constitutionalism" propagated by the United States, believing that Iran should not "isolate itself from the world" and should find ways to integrate into the mainstream and establish good relations with the United States and the West. However, the "theocracy" represented by Khamenei is very afraid of this, believing that the intervention of the United States and Europe will affect its own rule.
As a result, the civil and official divisions in Iran are intensifying, and in this case, Pezeshkian, who has no power and is more like a political novice, seems to be the president of Iran. But let's not forget that Iran's security can only depend on itself, and if it is repeatedly flattered, it will fear a major crisis in the country.
If memory serves, Iran is still working on nuclear weapons and has the capacity to purify industrial-grade uranium. It is impossible for the United States to relent, as this will give its opponents a chance to breathe, and will not only pose a major threat to Israel's survival, but will also affect the overall layout of the United States in the Middle East.
Iran should think that when it engages with the United States, it pays attention to the equality of strength, and asks itself what kind of bargaining chips it can come up with. If there is only a "pro-American" president without thinking about fundamentally changing himself, then such contacts can only be wishful thinking, or even redundant, and will arouse strong resentment in the United States.
In addition, anti-American forces, including the Houthis, Hamas, Allah in Lebanon and Iraqi militias, are still fighting Israel and forcing the United States to save the country. When asked how easily the Biden administration can trust the sincerity of the new Iranian government, Khamenei will never think that the United States is a three-year-old child, and only likes to listen to people's boasting and let others slip around.
Iran is "tossing and turning" and it is risky to engage with it
A few points.
First, there are great political risks associated with the relationship with Iran.
The international community is taboo against certain countries jumping sideways, because political speculation often brings people a sense of insecurity and forces everyone to re-examine their policies toward Iraq. After all, Russia is one of the few major powers that dares to go head-to-head with Western proxies, and Iran, as a friend of Russia, must not drop the chain at a critical moment in any case.
Just ask Iran if it is not empty in its heart! It must be known that Iran is to some extent regarded by everyone as the heroic embodiment of resistance to the United States and the West, and when Iran is no longer tough on the United States, then the pressure can only be given to Russia and China. The situation between China and Russia is well known to everyone, and they are currently undergoing rounds of Western sanctions and suppression.
Second, Iran wants to stop losses, but the method is obviously abnormal.
The premise of being friends with the United States is that you can contain the United States and prevent the other side from acting rashly. The reason why China has achieved "fighting and peace" with the United States and "fighting without breaking" is that China and the United States are equal in strength, China is on the defensive, the United States is on the offensive, and the game between China and the United States has reached a certain balance.
Just ask what Iran has? It is to voluntarily abandon nuclear weapons research and development and accept the supervision of international atomic energy; Or make a change now and abandon the "theocratic system" similar to the parents' word. Iran does not want to lose anything, and it wants to gain everything, so the United States will naturally not give positive feedback to Iran for its unwillful actions.
Third, Iran has begun to toss around again.
Lacey's death actually reminded everyone that in confrontation with the United States, we must pay attention to strategy, and we cannot use our own shortcomings to fight for the strengths of the United States. The United States has the advantage of maintaining scientific, technological, financial, and military superiority, and when it is powerless to confront the United States, it must think of ways to coexist with the United States.
Perhaps this is a bit rude, but the fact is that even if Russia is as powerful as Russia, it still chooses to have limited contacts with the United States to avoid direct conflict between the United States and Russia. Since Iran has chosen to support Hamas, Houthi, and Iraqi militias, it must stick to its "Shiite arc" and not use a hammer to end up with nothing.
Iran is also a big country in the Middle East, so why bother tossing and turning repeatedly to find yourself unhappy. It can only prove that Iran is deeply divided internally, the country is pregnant with a major social crisis, and in order to ease the class antagonism and ensure the continuation of the theocratic system, Khamenei has made adjustments.
It's a pity that the United States refuses to accept it, so that Iran doesn't know why for a while. In short, the emergence of a "pro-American" president in Iran must not be a good sign, indicating a loosening of the anti-American and anti-hegemonic camp. As for China and Russia, it may be necessary to be prepared to deal with some crises at the moment, after all, Iran has "lost" its position.