In this parliamentary election in France, did Macron win or lose? The media have different opinions, some say they lost, some say they won; It is also said that Mei Langxiong won big, Le Pen won small, and Macron lost! And said that he didn't lose, what is the situation?
Who is the winner in this parliamentary election in France?
On the stage of the parliamentary elections in France, the New Popular Front of the Left Alliance was like a dark horse, with Mélenchon as the leader, and unexpectedly became the biggest winner of this election, successfully winning 182 seats, firmly occupying the throne of the largest party.
The centrist United Party led by President Macron, which had been in the spotlight, struggled to save face, but it failed to resist the strong momentum of the left, winning only 163 seats, ranking second. Its former aura has been slightly dimmed in this round of elections, which makes people sweat for President Macron's path to power.
As for the far-right National Alliance led by Le Pen, although it won nearly a third of the vote in the first round of the election, it failed to continue the momentum in the second round of voting, and finally fell to third place with only 143 seats. This is undoubtedly a major blow to its far-right political philosophy, and it also reflects the cautious attitude of the French people towards extreme political positions.
As a result, none of the three major parties has a majority of seats.
However, the outcome of this election has brought unprecedented uncertainty and complexity to the political landscape in France. None of the three major parties has an absolute majority, which means that there will be fierce competition and compromise in future policy decisions. This will undoubtedly exacerbate the division and turmoil of French politics and add more challenges and difficulties to President Macron's path to power. However, in the face of this situation, President Macron has shown firm determination and confidence, and he has repeatedly stressed that he will not resign and will lead France to a brighter future.
Macron has entered "garbage time"
Macron, the leader of French politics, finally managed to snipe at the last minute the attack of the far-right National Alliance. However, behind this victory, there is a deep regret. The National Rally suffered a heavy blow in the fierce competition, failing to become the dominant force in parliament, let alone holding a decisive majority.
Macron, however, did not have the last laugh. His centrist coalition, despite its fierce resistance, ultimately lost its position as the number one party, which was undoubtedly a heavy blow. While this outcome will not directly shake his presidency, his once-high-profile policy reforms, such as raising the retirement age and raising taxes, are in danger of being overturned. The left-wing forces have made it clear that they want to overturn his pension reform, which undoubtedly casts a shadow over his political career.
At the same time, Macron's political ecology has also suffered serious damage. His appointee, Prime Minister Attar Atar, a former right-hand man, also announced his resignation. This has made the already turbulent French politics even more volatile, and the situation has been further complicated by the fact that the situation is divided into three worlds. Macron, the once high-spirited young president, is now discredited and scolded.
For the ambitious Macron, the next three years will undoubtedly be a political "garbage time". He, a political lame duck, will struggle on this stage. However, the most affected are undoubtedly the French people. Without a stable and powerful government, there can be no talk of national construction and development. And the struggle and game between several forces have made the people feel confused and uneasy. They expect a government that will truly benefit them, not an endless political game.
France will enter the era of "co-governance".
Macron has a clear antipathy to the far-right Le Pen and the far-left Mélenchon at both ends of the political spectrum. Le Pen and Mélenchon, two political rivals, have a relationship that seems to be natural enemies, and it has always been difficult to reconcile.
When the dust settles on the election, the balance of power in France begins to tilt. Traditionally, the president would choose the prime minister from among the parties that won the most seats, but this time, the president's faction is different from the prime minister's, creating a delicate state of "coexistence". The election results on the 7th undoubtedly pushed Macron's centrist camp to the edge of power-sharing, and he had to appoint a prime minister from the left-wing coalition, indicating that France is about to enter a new era of "co-governance". This has undoubtedly weakened Macron's position politically.
While Macron retains real power in key areas such as foreign affairs, the military and defense, he has a much less say in domestic affairs. If there is a disagreement between the prime minister and the president, both have the opportunity to put the other in a difficult situation. For example, when Macron decides to provide arms aid to Ukraine, the prime minister may try to delay; And when the prime minister proposes certain bills, Macron also has the power to veto. In this situation, every step forward in France can be extremely difficult, especially on controversial issues such as taxation and immigration.
To complicate matters further, since no party won an absolute majority in this election, the French National Assembly presented a "suspended parliament" situation, divided into three camps: left, centrist, and far-right. Their political platforms are very different and lack a tradition of cooperation, but each faction has the ability to veto resolutions. As a result, how to form a unified governing program has become a major problem facing the new government. Some analysts are even worried about how France's future will play out in such a political landscape.
Le Pen lost too flamboyantly?
In the current whirlpool of public opinion, Le Pen's flamboyant personality has been frequently mentioned by the media, and her political experience does not seem to have reached the point of perfection. In the face of strong resistance from Western forces in the United States and the mixed emotions of domestic voters, she should have walked on thin ice, tread cautiously, and avoided overly aggressive rhetoric. However, her straightforwardness and fearlessness, while admirable, also brought her a challenge.
At the heart of Le Pen's problem is her leadership style — she struggles to unite people. The centrist forces of the center-left looked away from her as if they were facing a tiger. Relying solely on the support of the right-wing, it has always been difficult for her approval rating to break through the 50% bottleneck. In the political arena, it is difficult to stand alone, and without close alliances with other parties, her road to the top will become extremely difficult.
In the first round of the election, although Le Pen stood out, she did not stabilize her position, but instead angered the United States and other Western forces with her overly blunt rhetoric. This puts her at a great disadvantage in this round of competition, and defeat seems to be a foregone conclusion. She is ambitious, but she seems to lack the wisdom of foresight and insight. In the big game of politics, if you are too sharp, it is often difficult to go further and achieve great things. Le Pen's experience undoubtedly provides us with a profound reflection: on the road to pursuing our dreams, should we also learn to rein in our edges and move forward more prudently?
Impact on the United States
The elections of Western countries are just a formality, and all their fate is in the hands of the United States, and they are all pathetic countries that have no right to speak. On the surface, it is a democracy, but in fact it has no sovereignty!
Every step of Macron's gamble touches the delicate nerves of international politics. Biden's brows are tightened, and Scholz is feeling unprecedented pressure, because this is not only a political game, but also related to the unity of the entire Western world, and even the future fate of the European Union.
When the final results were revealed, the Western world breathed a sigh of relief. Although the victory did not turn out to be ideal, at least the worst was averted, leaving a glimmer of hope for the road ahead.
At this time, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk could not help but express his opinion, saying: "Paris is full of enthusiasm, Moscow is disappointed, Kiev is relieved, and Warsaw is happy enough".
What do you mean?
The far-right National Alliance did not come to power, and if it did, the policy of the far-right would make the entire West look at each other, especially when it came to Ukraine, where the far-right clearly said no to Ukraine and wanted to make peace with Putin.
France, even if it is relatively independent in the West, is such a country, and its political destiny is also largely influenced by the United States! It can be seen how deeply the United States controls the entire Western countries!
Le Pen's defeat in the second round is reminiscent of the US election. Although Trump is menacing, it is difficult to win in the end due to his pro-Russian and Ukrainian political views!
Implications for Russia
The defeat of Le Pen left Russia lost, while Ukraine was able to breathe for a while.
Amid the hustle and bustle of Western social media, many believe that Russia has emerged as the real winner in this contest. This is not groundless, and the setback of the far-right forces has undoubtedly reduced a major threat to Russia. However, more subtlely, Mélenchon, who belongs to the far left, has also openly stood against the supply of weapons to Ukraine. This statement is like a double-edged sword, which not only weakens the support of Western countries for Ukraine, but also gives Russia a glimmer of hope.
The far-right and the far-left, which were originally two extremes on the political spectrum, have unexpectedly formed a tacit understanding that together paved a path to victory for Russia.
However, all this is only temporary. On the stage of international politics, the situation is unpredictable, and no one can predict what will happen in the next second.
Implications for China
Actually, it doesn't affect us. China is open to the French right-wing coming to power because of its pragmatism and the benefits of economic and trade relations. But the far right could trigger protectionism, albeit an easier response. At present, the left wing still prevails, and the road to French independence is full of challenges.
China's development has always been on its own, and its internal stability can withstand all external shocks. We are not afraid of whoever wins!