Source | Deep Blue Finance
Author | Wang Xin
With the end of the curtain in June, it is time for fund managers to hand in the papers, and the most concerned may be the public FOF, on the one hand, it continues to expand significantly, and on the other hand, it is the frequent liquidation warnings, what is the real performance?
Nearly half of the FOF achieved positive returns
In the first half of this year, the equity market trend was full of twists and turns, and everyone was uneasy, and in such an environment, the performance of equity, hybrid, bond and FOF funds was very different.
According to the data of Oriental Wealth Choice, as of July 4, there were 931 equity funds in the first half of the year, and only 268 had achieved positive returns (funds with visible performance, the same below), accounting for 28.79%. Among them, the best-performing BOC Hong Kong Stock Connect advantage growth, with an annual return of 25.61%.
Hybrid funds are slightly better, with 2,814 of the 7,526 hybrid funds achieving positive returns, accounting for 37.39%. Win Dividend Preferred A, which occupies the top spot on the list, has an annual return of 31.77%, outperforming the performance of equity funds.
In the first half of the year, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds continued to hit new lows, and the bond market continued to bullish, with 3,057 of the 3,569 bond funds achieving positive returns, accounting for 85.65%. Moreover, there are 6 bond funds with an annual return of more than 40%, and the best performing Mingya Jiu'an 90-day holding C has a return of 160.43%.
Finally, let's take a look at FOF funds (funds of funds), 411 of the 849 products achieved positive returns during the year, accounting for 48.41%. Although the overall performance is not as bright as that of the bond base, it has significantly outperformed equity and hybrid funds, reflecting the characteristics of FOF funds in a weak market with diversified risks and stable returns.
To a certain extent, this reveals the reasons for the large expansion of public FOF in recent years. Mainly under the confusing multilateral trend, the market of various investment strategies has become short-lived and not long-lasting, and FOF is particularly timely because of its diversified and balanced investment philosophy.
CEIBS, CCB and other performance leaders
Looking back at the first half of the year, among the FOF products, China Europe Fund, CCB Fund, Penghua Fund, and China Southern Fund performed well, involving pension target funds, active allocation strategy funds, multi-asset funds, etc.
Among them, the Y-share yield of the two pension target funds of China Europe Fund is in the forefront. As of July 4, CEIBS foresees a three-year increase of 6.15% in the net value of Y in 2045 and a 6.14% increase in the net value of Y in three years, both of which were established on February 6, 2024, and are a separate share set up specifically for the personal pension business, which is managed by Deng Da.
As a powerful leader of CEIBS Fund, Deng Da has 11 years of experience in the securities industry, has been managing public funds since 2022, and is currently the fund manager of the FOF group of the multi-asset and solution investment department of CEIBS. It is not difficult to find that Deng Da is very good at asset allocation, and the reason why the two products perform well is that they seized the opportunity of bond bulls, allocated more bond funds, and ran out of excess returns.
Left: CEIBS foresees the top 10 holdings in 2045 for three years; Right: CEIBS foresees that the balance pension holds the top 10 positions for three years
It is necessary to popularize science, and the pension target fund is divided into a target date fund and a target risk fund. CEIBS foresees that the pension target fund 2045 is the target date fund, which means that the pension target fund can only be sold after buying for at least three years with 2045 as the target retirement year; CEIBS foresees that the three-year holding of Y is a target risk fund, which means that the risk level is "balanced" (usually 50% equity assets) and the minimum holding period is three years.
As of July 4, the fund's Y share increased by 5.68% during the year, and the A share increased by 5.36% during the year, which was established on December 8, 2023 and December 21, 2022, respectively, and the fund managers are Jiang Hua and Yao Boyuan, and are now managed by Yao Boyuan alone.
Yao Boyuan is good at capturing the theme of the times and grasping the main line of investment from the perspective of global asset allocation, which can also be seen from the top ten holdings of CCB Preferential Enterprising Pension Target in five years, such as its heavy position of China Universal Global Mobile Internet Hybrid (QDII) RMB C is allocated to stocks such as Microsoft and NVIDIA, and it is also allocated to GF Nasdaq 100 ETF.
CCB Preferential Enterprising Pension Target holds the top 10 positions for five years
Let's take a look at a balanced product Qianhai Open Source Yuze Dingkai, up 5.5% this year, the product is managed by Li He, the fund investment accounted for 79.15% of the total assets at the end of the first quarter, and a number of index funds were heavily positioned, including commodity funds, medium and long-term pure bond funds, hybrid bond funds, passive index funds, flexible allocation funds, partial debt mixed funds and other categories.
Qianhai Open Source Yuze is set to open the top 10 positions
Recently, among the three major areas of focus that Li He talked about, high dividends and technology occupy two important seats. He said that the equity market has always preferred deterministic assets, and high-dividend industries such as coal and banks are still attractive with stable performance and high dividends. After the explosion of ChatGPT last year, it drove the stock prices of domestic technology companies, and the overseas mapping of media, communications and other industries has a certain allocation value.
Pension FOF ice and fire
It is worth noting that although the performance of many pension target funds in the first half of the year ran into the top of the FOF product income list, the overall performance was not optimistic.
Back in August 2018, 14 fund companies in the industry were allowed to launch the first batch of pension target funds operating with FOF, and FOF funds have ushered in vigorous development in the domestic market since then. By September 2023, there are 465 FOF products in the whole market, and the number of FOF products has reached 849 so far, doubling again in less than a year. Among them, there are 483 pension target funds, which have accounted for half of the public FOF market in mainland China.
With the end of the first half of the year, the overall income of the pension target fund has surfaced.
Wind data shows that as of June 26, a total of 40 pension target funds have achieved or exceeded 2% of returns this year, with the highest return of more than 5%, but at the same time, 22 funds have fallen by more than 5% this year.
In addition, looking back at the first half of 2024, a total of 15 pension target funds have been newly established, with a cumulative establishment scale of more than 2.2 billion yuan; But at the same time, 6 pension target funds were liquidated.
On May 16, GF Positive Return 3-month Holding Hybrid and Penghua Yicheng Positive 3-month Holding Period issued a liquidation warning, and issued a risk warning announcement because the fund size continued to be lower than the liquidation red line of 50 million yuan. In addition, a number of fund companies such as Qianhai United Fund, Ping An Fund, Nord Fund, Xinhua Fund and other fund companies have recently held a general meeting of fund unit holders on their mini public FOF to consider the matters of continuous operation or termination of fund contracts.
"People are not old, pension products have been liquidated" caused investor anxiety, which also reflects the challenges of pension target funds in the face of market uncertainty, which is a great test of the level of fund managers.
If you take out the Y share alone, among the 193 pension Y share funds in the whole market, 53.65% of the products achieved positive returns in the first half of the year, and the average rate of return was only -0.37%.
In the face of large fluctuations in the equity market, how to improve the investment experience of investors as the "third pillar of pension" has become an important topic for fund managers.