Nearly 1,500 interim reports were released: pre-profit companies accounted for 55.54%, and the photovoltaic industry chain was "wiped out"

CBN

2024-07-14 17:47Posted on the official account of Shanghai Yicai

Wind data shows that as of noon on July 14, 1,487 listed companies in the two cities have released 2024 interim performance forecasts, and the semi-annual earnings of A-shares are gradually becoming clear.

In the continuous recovery of the macro economy, the current "prognosis rate" of the A-share interim report is not gratifying. 358 companies pre-increased, 5 continued to make profits, 165 turned losses, 59 increased slightly, and 239 pre-decreased, accounting for 55.54% of the total; There were 241 first losses and 401 continuous losses, 16 slightly decreased, and 3 were uncertain.

Since the beginning of this year, the market rotation of various sectors has accelerated, and the main stock indexes have continued to shrink and adjust after peaking in late May. At the same time, for many industries, the semi-annual results set the tone for the annual performance, and in this context, grasping the trend of interim performance has become an important reference for investors to lay out in the second half of the year.

Half-year performance "winner and loser"

On the whole, the average value of the 1,487 interim performance forecasts, whether it is the upper or lower limit of the net profit growth forecast, is negative, which is quite different from the median value, reflecting the situation of "ice and fire" in individual stocks and industries.

Wind data shows that the average value of the upper and lower limits of the forecast net profit growth increased or decreased by -12.86 and -66.84 percentage points respectively compared with the previous year, and the median of the two indicators was 23.7% and 4.74% respectively.

Let's first look at the stocks with good performance (including pre-increase, slight increase, turnaround and continued profit, the same below), mainly from six major industries: computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing.

The first financial reporter noticed that the reversal of the industry's prosperity is the key to the high performance of many companies, and the recovery of the consumer electronics boom has driven a number of sub-industries, and the most direct beneficiary is Lixun Precision (002475. SZ), Goertek (002241. SZ) and other industry leaders. Goertek released a performance forecast on the afternoon of the 14th, and it is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.181 billion yuan to 1.265 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 180%-200%.

The PCB industry is an important sub-industry in the electronics industry, with a performance forecast rate of nearly eighty percent. Leading stock shengyi electronics (688183. SH) disclosed its 2024 semi-annual performance forecast, and the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in the current period to be 93.5 million yuan to 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 876.88% to 1049.27%. Shennan Circuit(002916. SZ), Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd. (002463. SZ), Guanghe Technology (001389. SZ) is expected to increase its net profit by more than 100%.

All of the PCB companies mentioned the impact of developments in the AI field on their businesses when they were surveyed by the above-mentioned institutions. In terms of driving the demand for PCBs in the server sector, Shengyi Electronics said that in 2024, the capital expenditure of global cloud service providers is expected to rebound strongly, and this trend will have a positive impact on data center-related products. Shennan Circuit also said that the accelerated evolution and deepening of the application of AI, the demand for edge computing capabilities and high-speed data exchange and transmission in various terminal applications has ushered in growth, which has driven the demand for high-frequency, high-speed, integrated, miniaturized, thin, high heat dissipation and other related PCB products for terminal electronic equipment.

In addition to PCB, semiconductors have also benefited from the rapid development of the AI field, coupled with the recovery of the industry's prosperity and the continuous recovery of demand for electronic terminal products, many chip design, packaging and testing companies have increased orders and increased capacity utilization, driving a significant increase in operating performance.

There are 31 listed semiconductor companies that have issued interim performance forecasts, 12 are expected to increase, 7 have turned losses, and 15 companies are expected to have a maximum net profit increase of more than 100%, of which 8 have an increase of more than 300%. Memory chips are the largest category of logic chips, and they are also seen as an important signal of the reversal of the cycle prosperity 688008. SH), BIWIN Storage (688525. SH), GigaDevice (603986. H), Shanghai Belling (600171. SH) and other memory chip leaders have achieved a significant increase in performance. Among them, Montage Technology's memory interface and module supporting chips achieved restorative growth, and the price of AI "capacity" chips began to be shipped on a large scale, and the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of the year increased by 612.73%-661.59% year-on-year. GigaDevice's net profit in the first half of the year increased by more than 50% year-on-year, and the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the second quarter was 313 million yuan, an increase of 53.68% from the previous quarter; Demingli, Shanghai Belling and BIWIN Storage are all expected to turn net profit into profit in the first half of the year year-on-year.

Outside the electronics industry, the loss of more than 20 months of listed pig enterprises finally entered the profit stage, the second quarter of the company batch turnaround, the leading stock Muyuan shares (002714. SZ) is expected to achieve a net profit of 700 million yuan ~ 900 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 125.19% ~ 132.28%, a loss of 2.779 billion yuan in the same period last year; Wen's shares (300498.SZ) announced on the afternoon of the 14th that it is expected to turn around losses in the first half of the year and achieve a net profit of 1.25 billion yuan to 1.5 billion yuan attributable to the parent company. The market believes that the upward inflection point of the pig cycle is "small lotus only showing sharp corners", and listed pig companies are expected to continue to make profits in the third quarter, but it is difficult to achieve excessive pig price increases during the year.

The pharmaceutical sector, which has been dormant for a long time, has returned to investors' attention due to its recent active stock price performance and mid-term forecast. Up to now, there are 32 pharmaceutical manufacturing stocks with good performance, including Twining Biotechnology, Huahai Pharmaceutical, Laiying Biotechnology, Nuotai Biotechnology, etc. The largest increase in net profit was Adisseo (600299. SH), the company is engaged in the research and development, production and sales of animal nutrition additives, and the net profit is expected to increase by 1846.11% in the first half of the year.

A person in charge of a private equity fund in Shanghai told reporters: "The pharmaceutical industry is a policy strong supervision industry, which is based on the particularity of pharmaceutical products, since 2018, drug procurement, negotiation, high-value consumables centralized procurement, etc., have had a relatively large impact on the pricing of pharmaceutical products." We believe that some pharmaceutical sub-sectors are expected to usher in a continued rebound in performance in the third quarter, as far as the whole industry is concerned, due to the large number of sub-sectors, performance differentiation or the main theme, the supply side of the competitiveness, brand advantage and resource advantage of the company is the focus of our attention. ”

Photovoltaic "annihilation", the differentiation of the new energy vehicle industry chain intensified

Among the sectors that reported the first loss or a sharp year-on-year decline, the performance of photovoltaic and lithium battery stocks bore the brunt.

Due to the continuous decline in the prices of silicon materials and wafers, the imbalance between supply and demand, and the loss of the entire photovoltaic industry chain. 15 PV companies reported their first loss (year-on-year in the same period last year), including Tongwei (600439. SH), LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH), TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ), JA Solar (002459. SZ) and other silicon wafer and crystalline silicon leading stocks have suffered heavy losses.

Tongwei expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of about -3 billion yuan to -3.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, compared with 13.270 billion yuan in the same period last year. Polysilicon prices are currently below 40,000 yuan/mt, downstream demand remains low in the short term, and polysilicon inventory growth is slowing down.

TCL Zhonghuan expects a net loss of 2.9 billion yuan to 3.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, and the company will lose at least 2.02 billion yuan in the second quarter, while LONGi Green Energy expects a net loss of 4.8 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, which has exceeded the annual profit scale of 2023 (3.416 billion yuan). Silicon wafer "rookie" Shuangliang Energy Saving (600481. SH) lost at least 735 million yuan in the second quarter after a loss of 295 million yuan in the first quarter.

In the first half of the year, the competition in the photovoltaic industry chain intensified and the price fell beyond the expectations of listed companies and researchers in the industry. The above-mentioned private equity sources told reporters that photovoltaic companies may face a deep "reshuffle" stage throughout the year, and it is expected to see a signal of reversal of industry production capacity as early as the end of the first quarter of 2025.

The new energy vehicle industry chain showed a significant internal differentiation, with upstream resource stocks losing huge net profits in the first half of the year, and sub-sectors such as auto accessories and parts manufacturing reaping performance growth. Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Shengxin Lithium Energy all reported their first losses in the interim results, with losses of at least 4.88 billion yuan, 760 million yuan, and 130 million yuan respectively. Tianqi Lithium said that during the reporting period, the company's lithium product sales prices fell sharply year-on-year, resulting in a sharp decline in gross profit margin, resulting in a loss in performance.

56 companies in the auto parts (CITIC component) sector have released performance forecasts, and 34 have good results, accounting for about 60%.

Kaizhong Precision (002823. SZ), the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 70 million yuan to 90 million yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year growth rate of 1068.44%-1402.28%, a growth rate of 183.56%-270.81% after deducting non-net profit, and a pre-profit of 65 million yuan-85 million yuan. For performance growth, the company said that benefiting from the integration of new energy vehicles, high voltage, lightweight, new energy precision connectors and other products order demand, fixed-point projects after mass production into an intensive delivery period, sales revenue growth rapidly.

In addition, Songwon Co., Ltd. (300893. SZ), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050. SZ), Huguang Co., Ltd. (605333. SH), Shentong Technology (605228. SH) and other parts companies are expected to increase their net profit significantly.

In addition to new energy, real estate, media, building decoration and other industries that have continued to have sluggish business performance and industry prosperity in the past two years have not yet come out of the predicament in the first half of the year. "In fact, the performance of the intensified differentiation of various industries has been reflected in the market, one is the acceleration of plate rotation, there is no main line to make the funds agree, and can only make a fuss about the sporadic performance exceeding expectations or ushering in the reversal of the economy. We will not pay too much attention to sectors like photovoltaics that are at a low point of prosperity and continue to digest valuations in the short term, and the electronics industry will benefit from the accelerated development of AI, and sub-sectors will still have the opportunity to gain funding this year. The above-mentioned private equity person told reporters.

According to the statistics of Shenwan's first-level industry, only 8 of the 31 industry sectors rose in the year, accounting for only about 25%, of which the banking sector index rose by 17.8% during the year, ranking first, followed by the public utilities sector, petroleum and petrochemical, household appliances also recorded gains, and computers, media, comprehensive and other sectors fell first. Under the extreme differentiation of the market, what will be the overall performance of the A-share interim report, Yicai will keep tracking.

(This article is from Yicai)