The low-pressure area that is developing near the Philippines,
It will enter the South China Sea in the next day or two
And further development.
so
Are rumors of a typhoon over the weekend true?
Let's take a look~~
An area of low pressure will enter the South China Sea
Further development is expected
The area of low pressure currently located south of the Philippines will enter the South China Sea in the next day or two, and there is an active trough of low pressure accompanied by a large amount of warm and moist water vapour transport in the South China Sea. Therefore, it is expected that the area of low pressure will develop further after entering the South China Sea and may develop into a tropical cyclone.
Satellite image at 9 a.m. on July 18
Divergence across models is reduced
Another area of low pressure also appeared over the sea of Fidong
The latest forecast data shows that there is less divergence among the forecasts of various models for the development of the low pressure over the South China Sea as compared with the previous ones, and all of them are expected to further develop into tropical cyclones. However, as another area of low pressure is also developing east of the Philippines and is expected to intensify at a relatively rapid pace, the two systems may interact with each other, resulting in considerable uncertainty about the subsequent direction and intensity of the area of low pressure in the South China Sea.
Sea level pressure forecasts for each numerical model
"Wind and rain" meets astronomical tide?
Showers and thunderstorms will increase next week
Regardless of whether the area of low pressure eventually develops into a tropical cyclone, according to the current forecast information, the southwest monsoon will intensify next week and a large number of warm and humid unstable airstreams will converge along the South China coast, which may also cause sustained heavy rain.
In addition, early next week (21-23rd) coincides with the astronomical high tide, and if the area of low pressure over the South China Sea eventually develops into a tropical cyclone and is close to the Pearl River Estuary, flooding may occur in low-lying areas under the influence of storm surge or persistent heavy rain. In this regard, in view of the complex and changeable weather in the coming week, the Meteorological Bureau appeals to the public to plan for windproof and flooding measures as early as possible, and continue to pay attention to the latest weather information of the Bureau.
Meteorological Bureau's 7-day weather outlook and daily cumulative rainfall forecast map (ECMWF) for 22-24 July (based on the latest 7-day weather forecast of the Bureau)