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The cycle bottomed, the performance exploded, and the stock price soared...... Recently, the semiconductor sector has become a bright landscape in the stock market.
According to the statistics of the Chinese reporter of the brokerage, as of now, 24 semiconductor listed companies in the whole market have released the 2024 semi-annual report performance forecast, of which the net profit of 6 companies has increased by more than 500% year-on-year, and the net profit of Changchuan Technology in the first half of the year has increased by up to 10 times year-on-year, driving the entire semiconductor sector to continue to rise strongly.
Wind data shows that as of July 19, the CSI Semiconductor Industry Index has rebounded by 9.82% since July, many stocks such as Changchuan Technology, Xinyuan Micro, and Zhongjing Technology have risen by more than 20%, and the stock prices of North Huachuang, Cambrian, and Espressif Technology have hit new highs.
According to the recently disclosed second quarter report of the fund, many well-known fund managers such as Jin Zicai of Caitong Fund and Xie Zhiyu of Industrial Securities Global Fund were overweight in the semiconductor sector in the second quarter, and 9 semiconductor stocks such as Montage Technology, Changdian Technology and GigaDevice received more than 10 million shares of the fund. Many fund managers believe that the semiconductor industry is already at the bottom of the inventory cycle, and are optimistic about artificial intelligence-driven computing semiconductors, macroeconomy-driven consumer electronics semiconductors and other directions.
A number of well-known fund managers overweight semiconductors
Since the beginning of this year, whether it is the demand stimulus brought by artificial intelligence, the recovery of consumer electronics, or the pressure exerted by international relations on the chip supply chain, it has attracted the attention of various fund managers to the semiconductor industry chain.
For example, the Caitong integrated circuit industry managed by Jin Zicai increased its stock position in the second quarter, and carried out a large proportion of position adjustments, and significantly increased its position in two semiconductor stocks, Jacques Technology and GigaDevice, making them the sixth and seventh largest heavy stocks of the fund respectively, in addition to the third largest heavy stock of Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd.
Jin Zicai said in the second quarter report that the overweight of the semiconductor sector in the second quarter is mainly due to the fact that the semiconductor cycle is getting closer and closer to the bottom reversal. At present, advanced manufacturing and advanced packaging have taken the lead in a significant upward trend, but related companies are not in the A-shares, if the development of the AI industry to the end side and the application side of the development, he believes that it is likely to drive the semiconductor industry to reverse the turn, the future will pay close attention to the investment opportunities in related industries.
For another example, Xie Zhiyu manages the value of Xingquan society, and there are 6 semiconductor stocks in the top ten heavy stocks, including Montage Technology, a leading memory interface chip company, Gao Wei Electronics, a camera module supplier, and Jingchen Shares, an audio and video chip company, etc., in addition to San'an Optoelectronics, Crystal Optoelectronics, and Hua Hong Semiconductor, of which Crystal Optoelectronics and Hua Hong Semiconductor are the top ten new heavy positions in the fund in the second quarter.
In the second quarter report, Xie Zhiyu said that in the second quarter, NVIDIA's AI server business is still developing rapidly, domestic related servers, optical modules and other sector indices continue to improve, and Apple's AI landing is expected to drive the domestic electronics industry chain.
In addition, Zheng Weishan's Galaxy Innovation Growth, there are 9 semiconductor stocks in the top ten heavy stocks, of which the top three heavy stocks are Changdian Technology, Shengbang Shares, and North Huachuang; GF Advanced Manufacturing, managed by Sun Di, has a heavy position in Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd., Tongfu Microelectronics, and Changdian Technology; Wanjia scientific and technological innovation managed by Huang Xingliang has a heavy position in China Micro Corporation, Zhuosheng Micro, Geke Micro, and Cambrian.
Zheng Weishan said in the second quarter report of Galaxy Innovation and Growth that the inventory cycle of the semiconductor industry is basically fully deduced, in addition to mobile phones, PCs or quarterly replenishment opportunities, other smart Internet of Things (AIoT), home appliances, cars, etc. may be in a state of slow digestion and slow transition, in general, the industry has bottomed out, and is currently in the initial stage of the upward cycle.
9 semiconductor stocks were heavily increased by the fund
On the whole, in the second quarter of this year, the entire semiconductor sector has received a trend increase in positions by public funds.
Wind data shows that as of the end of the second quarter of 2024, public funds have a total of 121 semiconductor stocks, of which 70 stocks have been increased by the fund in the second quarter, and 9 semiconductor stocks such as Montage Technology, Changdian Technology, GigaDevice Innovation, Cambrian, and Jacques Technology have received more than 10 million shares of the fund.
Among them, Montage Technology was the semiconductor stock with the largest number of shares increased by the fund in the second quarter, and more than 150 funds, including Xingquan Trend Investment managed by Dong Li, GF Multi-Factor managed by Tang Xiaobin and Yang Dong, and Xingquan Heyi managed by Xie Zhiyu, all increased their positions in the second quarter, with a total net increase of 66.455 million shares.
It is worth mentioning that Montage Technology's latest 2024 semi-annual report forecast performance has increased significantly, with a net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company of 583 million yuan ~ 623 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 612.73% ~ 661.59% over the same period of the previous year. The company believes that on the one hand, it is due to the recovery growth of the company's memory interface and module supporting chips, and on the other hand, it is due to the large-scale shipment of some of the company's new AI "capacity" chip products, which has contributed new performance growth points to the company. In the secondary market, the company's share price has bottomed out since April 10 and has risen more than 40% so far.
Similar to Montage Technology, most of the semiconductor stocks that were rushed up in advance by the fund have performed well in the recently disclosed 2024 semi-annual report performance forecast.
GigaDevice, a memory chip company, received 44.1 million shares of the fund in the second quarter, and Galaxy Innovation Growth managed by Zheng Weishan and Soochow Mobile Internet managed by Liu Yuanhai both increased their positions in the stock. GigaDevice's performance forecast shows that after experiencing sluggish market demand and gradual inventory reduction in 2023, demand in the consumer and networking markets will pick up in the first half of 2024, driving the company's memory chip product sales and revenue growth, and the company is expected to achieve a net profit of about 518 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 54.18%.
According to the performance forecast of Yak Technology, a semiconductor materials company, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of about 512 million yuan ~ 580 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a record high since 2019 and an increase of 50% ~ 70% over the same period last year. In the second quarter, the stock received additional positions from a number of star fund managers such as E Fund Emerging Growth, Invesco Great Wall Industrial Trends, and Caitong Value Momentum, with a total increase of about 14.85 million shares.
On the whole, as of the end of the second quarter, among the 121 semiconductor stocks with heavy positions in public funds, the largest number of heavy funds was North Huachuang, which obtained a heavy position of 527 funds; SMIC has the largest total market capitalization, with a total of 24.075 billion yuan.
According to the statistics of Huafu Securities Research Report, as of the end of the second quarter of 2024, the total market value of the electronic industry of public funds accounted for 14.1%, ranking first among all Shenwan first-class industries, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 24.4%, also ranking first. Among them, the semiconductor sector accounts for 46% of the total holdings of the electronics sector, accounting for half of the country.
Computing power semiconductors and consumer electronics semiconductors are the most optimistic
Looking forward to the market outlook, a number of fund managers have elaborated on their views on investment opportunities in the semiconductor industry in the second quarter report.
For example, Zeng Peng and Xiao Ruijin, fund managers of Bosera Semiconductor's theme mix, divided the A-share semiconductor industry into four major sub-industries, including artificial intelligence-driven computing semiconductors, independent innovation-driven semiconductor equipment and materials, macro-economy-driven consumer electronics cyclical semiconductors, new energy and military demand-driven power and special semiconductors, among which, in the third quarter of 2024, they continue to be optimistic about artificial intelligence-driven computing semiconductors and global economic recovery-driven cyclical semiconductors.
First of all, they expect that AI will promote the consumer electronics industry into an update cycle, and the follow-up will see a series of new products equipped with AI functions released, and consumers' willingness to buy will be improved, which will drive the inventory replenishment of electronic components and chips, and the prices of chips with cyclical attributes such as storage, display drivers, and radio frequency will continue to rise, and the performance of upstream chip companies will continue to improve.
Secondly, the successful establishment of the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund will contribute to the steady advancement of independent innovation in semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing processes and high-performance storage will become the focus of market attention, which is also the investment direction with performance certainty in the semiconductor industry.
Finally, they maintain an optimistic view on domestic artificial intelligence chips in 2024, after the United States Department of Commerce implemented new export control rules for advanced computing chips in October 2023, Chinese artificial intelligent computing chip manufacturers began to accelerate domestic substitution, and with the breakthrough of advanced process bottlenecks, the problem of domestic chip supply will also be solved.
"To sum up, we believe that the current global semiconductor has entered a new round of upward cycle, in the third quarter, we continue to overallocate consumer electronics chip design manufacturers, overweight semiconductor equipment localization core leading manufacturers, overweight domestic artificial intelligence computing chip companies, continue to underallocate new energy and military-driven power and special semiconductors." Zeng Peng and Xiao Ruijin said.
Lei Tao, the fund manager of Debang Semiconductor, also expressed a similar view, he continued to put the first position of the portfolio on consumer chips and storage related to the recovery of semiconductors, and computing chips are important positions for the long term, and said that he still maintains optimistic expectations in these two areas.
"Recently, the market has finally started to trade the opportunity of the semiconductor recovery, which is also a feedback for our patience after the changes in the industry observed at the beginning of the year. We are still optimistic about the recovery of the entire semiconductor industry, and in the future, more consumer electronic products with AI functions will gradually increase the recovery slope of overall demand. I believe that the market will become more and more confident in this industry trend. Lei Tao said.
Source: Brokerage China
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