Important note: The Administrative Measures for the Suitability of Securities and Futures Investors came into effect on July 1, 2017, and the views and information published through this WeChat subscription account are only for the reference of professional investors of Haitong Securities, and the complete investment views should be subject to the full report issued by Haitong Securities Research Institute. If you are not a professional investor among Haitong Securities clients, in order to control investment risks, please unsubscribe, receive or use any information in this subscription account. We apologize for the difficulty in setting access permissions for this subscription account, and for any inconvenience caused. Our company will not regard relevant personnel as customers because they follow, receive or read the content of this subscription account; The market is risky, and investors need to be cautious.
Haitong Macro | Liang Zhonghua team
Authors of this report:
李林芷 S0850121060038
梁中华 S0850520120001
· Summary ·
The differentiation of domestic and foreign demand continues to be deduced, and the real estate margin in domestic demand is low, and consumption is still under pressure, but the economic data in July may improve year-on-year with the lower base. In terms of consumption, the sales of automobiles in the consumption of goods increased in an unseasonal manner, and the film market in the consumption of services increased due to the release of new films, but the increase in extreme weather made travel and play relatively weak. In terms of investment, infrastructure funds are still relatively insufficient, but new projects have increased slightly. The mid-year effect and policy effect have partially weakened, and the housing sales margin has declined. In terms of imports and exports, port activities are frequent, and exports may remain strong. In terms of production, the production margin of traditional industries such as coal power and petrochemical industry has declined, but the production of photovoltaic industry in emerging industries has rebounded. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coal and building materials for housing construction declined. In terms of prices, food prices continued to rise, especially pork prices, which increased year-on-year, which supported the CPI. The prices of industrial products mostly fell, and the prices of crude oil fluctuated downward. In terms of liquidity, the funding rate rebounded slightly, and the central bank returned funds on a net basis. The U.S. dollar index rose, and the renminbi fell accordingly.
Risk warning: the effect of real estate optimization policies is not as expected.
1
Three high-frequency synchronization indicators
Haitong Macro High-frequency Synchronization Index: As of July 20, the production synchronization index (HTPI) in July was 5.18%, and the value in June was 4.78%; The export coincident index (HTEXI) in July was 10.05%, and the value in June was 4.07%; The consumption coincident index (HTCI) was 5.27% in July and 3.87% in June.
2
Specific high-frequency indicator tracking
2.1 Consumption: Movie-watching consumption is hot
Durable goods consumption: The weekly sales volume of automobile wholesale and retail sales rebounded counter-seasonally compared with the previous week, driving the four-week average retail sales to rebound against the previous week, while the four-week average wholesale value fell slightly, although the absolute value of the two is still at a high level after the same period last year. The four-week average decline in retail and wholesale both narrowed slightly, and the heat of automobile consumption in the summer rebounded marginally.
Consumption of non-durable goods: 1) Textile and garment: The transaction volume data of the Textile City rebounded slightly from the bottom, but the absolute value was still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the year-on-year decline continued to expand. 2) Light manufacturing: As of July 14, the Yiwu small commodity price index closed at 101.92, slightly lower than the previous week, but still higher than the same period in previous years, online prices fell faster for the second consecutive week, which was the main drag on the overall price index downward, the sub-index Chinese office supplies fell the most, and the luggage category rose the most.
Movement of people: 1) Intra-city passenger traffic: The congestion delay index of 100 cities and the weekly average of subway passenger volume in 18 cities decreased and rose as a whole, but both improved year-on-year compared with the previous week. From the perspective of cities, the trend of reducing congestion and increasing subway trips in first-tier cities is the most obvious. 2) Inter-city passenger transport: The summer migration scale index rebounded seasonally, but turned negative from positive to -1.3% year-on-year, which may be due to the relatively high number of extreme weather this year, which affected residents' travel. Last Sunday, the average number of flights from the Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and international increased by 1.7%, 1.2% and 1.4% month-on-month, respectively.
Service consumption: 1) Movie consumption: The number of moviegoers and the box office of movies rebounded from the lowest level in the same period in recent years to the highest level in recent years, and the year-on-year decline narrowed sharply from 53.7% and 53.8% in the previous week to 14.2% and 13.4%, which was mainly due to the recent release of high-quality films such as "Silent Killing" and "Catching the Doll", which drove the summer film market to continue to rise. 2) Amusement consumption: Last week, the month-on-month growth rate of visitors to Universal Studios Beijing and Shanghai Disneyland was -13.6% and 5.1% respectively, and this year's summer outdoor amusement consumption continued to be weaker than last year, mainly due to the impact of extreme weather such as high temperature on residents' outdoor amusement activities. 3) Tourism consumption: In the second week of July, the Hainan tourism price index was 102.47, up 2.47% week-on-week, and the summer price increase was at the average level of the same period in recent years, of which the transportation and accommodation price index rose significantly.
2.2 Investment: New home sales margins are lower
Infrastructure: 1) Funds: As of July 20, a total of 1.68 trillion yuan of new special bonds have been issued this year, and the progress has accelerated slightly compared with the previous period, but it is still at a slower level in the same period in recent years, which has a certain drag on infrastructure investment. 2) Project area: The year-on-year growth rate of the contract value of new infrastructure projects signed by China State Construction, the new contract value signed by China Metallurgical Corporation, and the new contract value signed by China Chemical Corporation in China Chemical Co., Ltd. in the month was slightly improved compared with the previous month, which may mean that the funds issued in May and June will be accelerated, driving more projects to land.
Real estate: 1) Real estate sales: Last week, the average daily transaction area of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 230,500 square meters, and the sales in the off-season were relatively flat, expanding to 17.3% for the second consecutive week year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline compared with the same period in 2019 was basically the same as the previous week. From the perspective of city lines, the year-on-year sales of new homes in all tier-level cities fell for the second consecutive week, and the effect of superimposed policies weakened during the New Year's Eve, making the margin of new home sales lower. Second-hand housing sales fell slightly from the previous week, and the year-on-year increase narrowed, but the absolute value was still the highest value in the same period in recent years, and the proportion of second-hand housing continued to fluctuate at a high level of more than 65%. 2) Land transactions: The land transaction area fluctuated at the bottom of the week of July 14, but the premium rate rebounded to 5.03%, but it was still lower than in previous years, and the land market was still cold.
Construction entity indicators: Last week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt rebounded to 28.0% for the second consecutive week, which was mainly dominated by seasonal factors, the year-on-year decline continued to narrow, and the progress of infrastructure construction construction may accelerate slightly. Last week, the cement shipment rate fell slightly to 46.4%, and the volume of construction steel fell to 115,000 tons, a year-on-year decline that was not much different from the previous week. The housing construction index fluctuated at a low level, and the investment side of real estate construction did not improve significantly.
The effect of Hangzhou's real estate optimization policy has weakened. We continue to track four cities that have optimized their purchase restriction policies, namely Chengdu (28 April), Beijing (29 April), Hangzhou (9 May) and Shanghai (28 May). Judging from the single-week data, the sales of new houses in Hangzhou fell marginally last week, but the sales of new houses in Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai are still improving at the margin, and the sales of second-hand houses in each city are rebounding at the margin. Judging from the monthly data, as of July 20, the year-on-year decline in new home sales in Hangzhou continued to expand, and the effect of the real estate optimization policy may have decreased, but the optimization policy in other cities is still in effect, and the real estate sales still rebounded to varying degrees.
2.3 Imports and exports: Exports may remain strong
Port data: The number of inbound and outbound ships calling at mainland ports continued to rebound seasonally, the number of departing ships and the deadweight tonnage of departing ships in the country's top 20 ports and eight coastal ports all rebounded marginally, and port operation improved to a certain extent compared with the previous period.
Freight rate data: Internationally, ocean freight rates (BDI) continued to fall last week, with freight rates falling 0.8% month-on-month. Domestic export freight rates continued to rise by 3.3% month-on-month, while import freight rates fell by 1.9% month-on-month.
2.4 Production: The performance of traditional industries is weak
Steel: The operating rates of coking and wire rod remained stable, the operating rates of blast furnaces and rebar increased slightly, and the year-on-year decline of the whole industrial chain narrowed from a year-on-year perspective. From the perspective of output, the yield of spiral decreased slightly, while the output of hot coil rebounded marginally. The overall steel production has improved slightly compared with the previous period, but the demand for real estate is still not high, and the production of building materials such as threads may be relatively weak.
Coal power: The daily coal consumption of the eight coastal provinces rebounded seasonally, and the absolute value was at a high position in the past year, with a year-on-year decline of 5.1%, although the high temperature weather brought about an increase in residential electricity demand, but this year's hydropower and other new energy supply is abundant, and the demand for thermal power is not as good as in previous years, making coal consumption continue to decline year-on-year.
Petrochemical: 1) Chemical fiber: The load rate of the whole PTA industry chain, the operating rate of PTA and polyester industries have all fallen slightly, and the overall production of the chemical fiber industry has weakened, or due to the industry's production reduction and price insurance and shutdown maintenance, superimposed on the impact of insufficient demand in the off-season. 2) Rubber and plastics: Due to the centralized maintenance of the industry, the operating rate of PVC fell to 70.0%, and the absolute value fell to around the average value of recent years.
Chlor-alkali: last week, the operating rate of soda ash fell to 86.8%, and the year-on-year growth rate fell slightly to 2.0%, the current absolute value is at the highest level in the same period in recent years.
Photovoltaics: Last week, the Solarzoom PV manager index stopped falling and rebounded, of which the midstream and upstream manufacturing index rebounded significantly.
Automobile: Last week, automobile production continued to fall, and the operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires both fell, and the year-on-year growth rate was marginally lower, but the operating rate of semi-steel tires was still the highest value in the past year. The export demand for passenger cars is still strong, and there is still some support for the production of semi-steel tires.
Freight: Last week, the truckload freight flow index fell 0.1% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline widened slightly to 5.5% from 5.3% in the previous week.
2.5 Inventory: Housing construction and building materials go to the warehouse
Energy products: Qinhuangdao port's coal inventory has fallen super-seasonally, and the absolute value of the current inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, or the supply is lower due to the upgrade of safety inspections at the production site and the inversion of the cost of shipment to the port. Building materials: the cement storage capacity ratio fell to 61.3%, and the social inventory of steel is also declining, and the main reason for the rise in demand or the destocking of building materials for housing construction; The asphalt inventory of infrastructure building materials continued to rise, and the absolute value is still near the average value of the previous year, which may reflect that the demand for infrastructure is still relatively sluggish. Others: The number of PTA inventory days continued to decrease last week, and the inventory days of polyester filament and polyester chips increased, and the absolute value was at the highest level in the same period in recent years, or due to the price increase of polyester industry factories to suppress downstream demand.
2.6 Prices: Prices of food have risen
CPI: Pork prices rose by 1.3% month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded slightly to 31.6%, and the price remained at the highest level in the same period in recent years; The prices of eggs, fruits and vegetables continued to rise, of which the price of eggs turned from negative to positive year-on-year, and food prices continued to rise, which may have some support for the CPI. Judging from the iCPI price index released by Tsinghua University, the overall iCPI fell slightly from 16.2% year-on-year to 15.7%, and among the sub-items, the prices of clothing, food, tobacco and alcohol, education, culture and entertainment fell significantly.
PPI: The South China Composite Index fell, down 0.9% month-on-month, except for the precious metals index, all sub-items fell, of which the metals and industrial products indices fell more. 1) Energy: Coal prices remained unchanged from the previous week, and the comprehensive trading price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) remained at 728 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices fluctuated to the downside, down 2.8% month-on-month, as of July 19, Brent oil and WTI crude oil prices closed at $82.6 / barrel and $80.1 / barrel, respectively, or due to the strengthening of the US dollar, and geopolitical risks may ease to bring about supply recovery. 2) Building materials: last week, the steel margin fell, and the prices of thread and hot coil fell by 1.2% and 0.8% month-on-month; The marginal drop in asphalt prices was 0.1%, and the marginal drop in cement prices was 0.9%, and the impact of real estate optimization policies needs to be further released. 3) Metals: Among non-ferrous metals, copper prices fell 1.4% month-on-month to 76,540 yuan/ton, aluminum prices fell 2.9% month-on-month, and lithium carbonate prices fell 3.6% month-on-month. 4) Others: The price of the whole PTA industry chain remained stable last week.
2.7 Liquidity: The U.S. dollar index is on the upside
The funding rate rose slightly. As of July 19, R007 and DR007 closed at 1.90% and 1.87%, up 7 and 6 bps respectively from the previous week. Last week, the central bank withdrew 10 billion yuan of net funds, of which 1,183 billion yuan was due for reverse repurchase and 1,173 billion yuan for operation.
The U.S. dollar index fluctuated to the upside. As of July 19, the dollar index closed at 104.36, up 27 bps from the previous week, or due to the strengthening of Trump election expectations, the market is worried about the inflation level in United States will rise again. The renminbi fluctuated to the downside last week, closing at 7.267 against the renminbi as of 19 July (7.258 the previous week).
Risk warning: the effect of real estate optimization policies is not as expected.
------------------
Series of reports (click on the link to view the original article):
The Marginal Decline in New Home Sales - Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 26, 2024)
Real Estate Improvement, Flat Consumption - Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 25, 2024)
Marginal Improvement in Domestic Demand: Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 24, 2024)
Marginal Recovery of Real Estate Sales - Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 23, 2024)
Real estate sales have fallen - domestic high-frequency indicator tracking (Issue 22, 2024)
After Policy Optimization: Short-term Improvement of Real Estate in Core Cities: Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 21, 2024)
Real Estate Policy: Initial Effect - Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 20, 2024)
Exports are resilient, domestic demand needs to be boosted - domestic high-frequency indicator tracking (Issue 19, 2024)
How to understand real estate policy? ——Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 18, 2024)
Policy-driven, Housing Sales Improvement - Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 17, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
How is the "May Day" consumption condition? ——Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 16, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Exports Improve, Investment Still Weak - Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 15, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Production Pickup in Emerging Industries - Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 14, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Economic Structure: Great Differentiation - Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 13, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Tourism Consumption Continues to Recover - Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 12, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 11, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 10, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 9, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 8, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 7, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 6, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 5, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 4, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 3, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 2, 2024) (Haitong Macro, Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Legal Notices
This public subscription account (WeChat ID: Haitong Macro Research) is the only official subscription account operated by Haitong Securities Research Institute in the macro industry, and the content contained in this subscription account is only for the reference of professional investors of Haitong Securities, and only for the exchange of research views in the context of new media; Ordinary individual investors who lack the ability to interpret research opinions or reports, use the relevant information of the subscription account or cause investment losses, please be sure to cancel the subscription account, Haitong Securities will not be regarded as a customer by any recipient because of the receipt of the content of this subscription account.
This subscription account is not a publishing platform for Haitong research reports, and customers still need to refer to the complete report officially released by Haitong Research Institute through the research report publishing platform.
The market is risky, and investors need to be cautious. In any case, the information or opinions contained in this subscription account do not constitute investment advice to any person, and Haitong Securities shall not be liable for any consequences or losses arising from any direct or indirect use of the information and content published in this subscription account or investment based on it.
The information, opinions and projections contained in this subscription account may no longer be accurate or invalid due to various factors after the date of publication, and Haitong Securities undertakes no obligation to update inaccurate or outdated information, opinions and projections without prior notice.
The copyright of this subscription account belongs to Haitong Securities Research Institute, and any subscriber who pre-quotes or reprints the content contained in this subscription account must contact Haitong Securities Research Institute for permission, and must indicate the source as Haitong Securities Research Institute, and shall not quote or delete the content contrary to the original intention.
Haitong Securities Research Institute Macro Industry reserves all legal rights to this subscription account (WeChat ID: Haitong Macro Research). Other subscription accounts registered by other institutions or individuals on the WeChat platform in the name of the macro industry of Haitong Securities Research Institute, or containing "macro team or group of Haitong Securities Research Institute" and related information are not official subscription accounts of Haitong Securities Research Institute macro industry.