A few months before Nguyen Phu Trong's death, the political situation in Viet Nam had already been turbulent, and it was no accident that President Surin was "acting" general secretary; the factional struggle between the north and the south had become a thing of the past; Viet Nam politics had entered a new stage, and the opinions of powerful organs had become a key factor in government decision-making
On July 18, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam announced that Nguyen Phu Trong was "hospitalized" at the 108 Central Military Hospital in Hanoi, Viet Nam, and on the same day Nguyen Phu Trong was awarded the "Order of the Golden Star", which symbolizes Viet Nam's highest national honor, and died in the hospital the next day, just like previous Viet Nam state leaders.
At the same time, the CPV Central Committee "collectively decided" that Surin, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPV Central Committee who assumed the presidency in May this year, and who had served as Viet Nam's public security minister for a long time and had visited China, should act as general secretary.
Despite the apparently smooth transition, anyone with a slight knowledge of Viet Nam's political situation knows that Viet Nam's political situation has changed frequently in recent years.
Nguyen Phu Trong was not admitted to the hospital on the eve of his death, he has been in poor health for a long time, at least in 2021, some foreign media have reported the relevant news, and it is also during this period of poor health that the struggle over the transfer of power has intensified, and as early as January this year, some media said that Nguyen Phu Trong was hospitalized for health problems.
The most recent key point was in April this year, when he was scheduled to attend the Belt and Road Summit in Beijing in April this year, but on the eve of the summit, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Viet Nam officially announced that "due to Nguyen Phu Trong's physical discomfort due to work fatigue and weather changes, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam decided to attend the summit on behalf of Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc", and his last public appearance was on April 14 this year to visit Jian Giang Province, and he has not attended any public events since.
A lot has happened since January of this year. First of all, Nguyen Phu Trong's successor, the country's No. 2 person, Vo Van Thanh, a member of the Politburo of the Central Committee and then the presidency, resigned for "violating the ban on party member behavior", and then Viet Nam National Assembly President Ong Dinh Hue and his secretary Pham Tay Ha were politically attacked, the latter happened to be participating in foreign affairs with China at the time, and was immediately arrested and investigated by the Viet Nam Ministry of Public Security after returning to China, and Ong Dinh Hue then resigned, followed by the resignation of Truong Thi Mai, secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of Viet Nam (equivalent to Nguyen Phu Trong's secretary), around this time, members of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Vinh Phuc Provincial Party Secretary and National Assembly representative Huang Thi Cuilan was also expelled from the party.
In the first two months of Nguyen Phu Trong's hospitalization, five senior leaders of the Communist Party of Vietnam were defeated, and then Surin took over as president. In fact, at this time, Nguyen Phu Trong is no different from being put in the air, this is nothing new, why is the health of the country's leaders important? Because of a person who is about to die, what he says cannot be counted, and this kind of supreme leader is not in good health, and it is not uncommon in history for the people below to fight to the death for who will take over.
So what is Surin's resume as the victor so far? He was born in northern Viet Nam, his father is a colonel of the Ministry of Public Security of Viet Nam, a recipient of the Order of the Golden Star, and Surin himself was admitted to the Viet Nam Public Security School in 1974 and served in the public security system, the specific department is a super department that integrates judicial, anti-corruption, counterintelligence, and national security responsibilities, and has risen all the way, or to put it in layman's terms, it is the head of the special services of all Viet Nam.
In the past few years, Nguyen Phu Trong vigorously fought corruption and centralized power, and the leaders of the powerful departments represented by Surin have made a great contribution, after all, the leaders of these departments have too much black material of officials, and while they have used their talents to defeat the corrupt people of the southern faction, the power of the powerful departments has also been expanding.
Until now, the "four pillars" at the top level of the Communist Party of Vietnam, namely the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the President of the State, the Prime Minister of the Government, and the Chairman of the National Assembly, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong has just passed away, and the President of the State Surin has performed his duties, and the Chairman of the National Assembly has been overthrown, leaving a Prime Minister of the Pham Minh Chinh, who is also from a powerful institution! Born in the "General Intelligence Bureau" under the vertical jurisdiction of the Ministry of Public Security of Viet Nam, the department in charge of external work, while the department where Surin worked was mainly responsible for suppressing dissent internally, especially internally, and was the sharp knife of the struggle between the northern faction and the southern faction in Viet Nam in the past.
Now that the two people at the top level of the Viet Cong are both from powerful organs, one inside and one outside, what will the Viet Nam opposition do after they take power? The opposition elected Lieutenant General Nguyen Trong Nghi, who is also a powerful former deputy director of the Political Headquarters of the Vietnamese Army, now a member of the Secretariat of the Central Committee and head of the Central Propaganda and Education Department, and General Liang Qiang, a former director of the Political Headquarters of the Vietnamese Army and now a member of the Standing Committee of the Secretariat of the Communist Party of Vietnam.
This situation arose because the development of Viet Nam's political situation has crossed the previous contradiction and struggle mode of "northern and southern factions", in fact, Nguyen Phu Trong relied on strong organs during his term of office to complete the crushing of the northern faction against the southern faction, and in the last two years of Nguyen Phu Trong's life, the result of the power struggle gradually led to the liquidation of the situation by a group of officials from a powerful organ, and Viet Nam politics officially entered the "era dominated by powerful organs", or Shilavik (Russian word, meaning strong person), In the last year of his political career, Nguyen Phu Trong watched his power distribution three years ago be destroyed step by step and was powerless to intervene, and now the rest of Viet Nam's top echelons are secret service chiefs from powerful agencies.
Of course, the fermentation of Viet Nam's internal power struggle is also inseparable from an important background, that is, Viet Nam is sandwiched between China and the United States, and its own country has a very important strategic position, so what is the background of Viet Nam's new supreme leader? We can see that on the eve of Nguyen Phu Trong's death, he has already sent a signal of cooperation with United States, namely Viet Nam's latest claim to territorial demarcation in the South China Sea. Of course, this is not to say that Viet Nam has since fallen to the United States, Surin himself is also from the northern faction, compared to the southern faction is the more pro-American one, the northern faction is traditionally more pro-Chinese, but in the aspect of waiting for the price and selling, making profits at both ends Viet Nam there is also a more profound tradition.
However, in general, in the context of United States's own political turmoil and lack of strong centripetal force, Viet Nam does not have any good opportunities even for strategic speculation, and its diplomacy with China generally continues the inertia of the past, maintains a relatively close cooperative relationship, and makes a fuss about the South China Sea issue but does not engage in hostility is the right choice, otherwise, the precedent of Myanmar will have important reference significance for Viet Nam.