Monday's A-shares, relying on the "volume" of several broad-based ETFs in the last half hour, finally closed some. Wind All A closed down 0.22%.
On the same day, a small position adjustment was made. Redeemed some sporadic observation position funds that I had bought before, and subscribed for 50,000 yuan of "thirty and fifty index increases" in equal amounts.
On the one hand, this is to reduce the mental burden of too many platforms holding too many varieties, and on the other hand, it is also to slightly increase the style exposure of small-cap market capitalization.
So far in 2024, large-cap stocks have led the way, while small- and mid-cap stocks have been a chicken feather.
The chart below is a comparison of the performance of the four broad-based total return indices so far in 2024, the CSI 300 continues to have positive returns, while the worst CSI 2000 is down 25.04%, with a return difference of 30 points in and out.
Where do we go from here?
One of the biggest suspense in the current A-share market is: can the large-cap stocks that have recently relied on the support of the mysterious funds of the tail-end ETF still be able to stand firm if they leave the support of the mysterious funds?
On this issue, the least worrying is the CSI 2000 and below, the iconic ETF has never been like the CSI 300, CSI 500 and CSI 1000, which have been blessed with late-end buying, and the current performance can be called "no makeup".
Under the "no makeup", the recent decline of the CSI 2000 is controllable, the RSI has even seen a continuous bottom divergence, and Monday is also a relatively strong sector, which I think is more or less symbolic.
What's more, based on the 40-day return spread that I have been tracking, the CSI 300 has reached +8.26% compared to the CSI 1000, approaching the +10% level. Judging from the history so far in 2019, except for the crazy market of core assets in early 2021 and the collapse of small and micro caps in 2024, most of the time the 40-day return difference of the CSI 300 will "take a break" when it reaches the range of about +10%.
I have always felt that the beta direction of A-shares is not so easy to study, and even valuation indicators, such as equity cost performance, require great patience. But at the relative alpha level, it's relatively good to judge.
In fact, the rotation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks with high dividends is also the case, and the return difference in the first 40 days has even reached an extreme level of -20%. Recently, Hong Kong stocks have weakened compared to the high-dividend sector of A-shares, and the 40-day earnings spread has finally returned to the level of around 0.
Getting back to the point, this time I will increase the exposure of small and medium-sized stocks by increasing the position by thirty or fifty fingers, I don't know what will happen. In the near future, there should be some sporadic position redemptions that continue to shift to 35 index increases, and I don't want the relative strength of small-cap stocks to come too quickly.