According to Xinhua News Agency, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced on July 22 that China and the Philippines had reached a provisional arrangement to manage the situation at Second Thomas Shoal. With regard to the relevant arrangements, China adheres to the three-point principle. First, Ren'ai Jiao is China's territory, and beached vessels infringe on China's sovereignty. It should be towed away, restored to an uninhabited state, and abide by the provisions of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea that no manned islands and reefs should be exploited. Second, the Philippines needs to tow away the beached boat, and before it is towed, China will allow the Philippines to transport food and prohibit the delivery of building materials based on humanitarian considerations. The Chinese side needs to inform the itinerary in advance before the implementation of the subsidy, and the Chinese side will monitor the whole process during the subsidy, and will also verify it on site. Third, if the Philippine side violates China's regulations, such as seeking to transport building materials, China will resolutely enforce the law.
Also on July 22, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos delivered a State of the Union address to the Philippine Congress. During the period, Marcos said that it was impossible to make concessions on the territorial dispute. There will be no wavering, no compromises will be made on positions and principles.
Marcos' statement shows that he still has a personal desire to continue to stir up trouble in the South China Sea. One of the major problems facing Marcos today is that although he holds the presidency of the Philippines, his representation of the Philippines is shrinking. The extent to which his remarks represent the overall attitude of the Filipino population needs to be marked with a question mark.
During Marcos' third State of the Union address on July 22, the Philippine government was facing divisions. Philippine Vice President Sarah recently withdrew from her part-time position in Marcos' cabinet and refused to attend Marcos' State of the Union address. Sarah's office also revealed that Sarah would likewise not watch Marcos' speech through electronic devices. Marcos, who made no mention of China in his speech, spoke less than five minutes on South China Sea affairs and claimed that "diplomacy based on the rules-based order" was the only way to deal with the situation.
When Marcos won the presidency of the Philippines, he promised to reduce inflation and reduce the price of rice to 20 pesos per kilogram. After three years, the price of Philippine rice has risen instead of falling, rising to 50-60 pesos, which is the highest price of Philippine rice in 15 years. In his State of the Union address, Marcos reaffirmed his commitment to lower rice prices.
And there are examples of previous dishonesty, and Marcos's new promises are not very credible. The Philippines is a major importer of rice, and the increase in the price of phit is related to the impact of climate change on Philippine rice production. It is also related to the export restrictions of India, the largest rice exporter, and the backwardness of the Philippines' own agricultural technology. According to data released by the Philippine polling agency, more than 7 out of 10 Filipino people are dissatisfied with the performance of the Fimacos government in dealing with inflation, and believe that dealing with inflation should be the top priority of the Philippine government. The recent vicious security incidents in the Philippines have also made the Philippines less attractive to investment and tourism.
Compared with the official data released by the Philippines on the country's inflation of 3.7% in June, down 0.2% month-on-month, the country's public reaction to the inflation problem is strong. According to data released by relevant polling agencies in the Philippines on the 19th, the proportion of people who believe that inflation will lead to greater poverty has increased from 46% in March to 58% three months later.
In this context, whether it is the Marcos and Sarah alliances, on which Marcos relies for power, or Marcos's support in the Philippines, they are all collapsing. Marcos has made few achievements in public security, corruption, drugs, inflation, and investment in the Philippines, which has caused dissatisfaction among the people in the Philippines to intensify. Turning into enemies with political allies triggered a rupture in Marcos' approval base. Repeated provocations in the South China Sea have triggered China's push of forces in the direction of the Philippine archipelago, and the Philippines has been more passive in the South China Sea than it was during the Duterte era.
Equally crucial, Marcos and other pro-U.S. forces in the Philippines will cater to United States Indo-Pacific strategy and confront China as an opportunity to gain support and benefits from United States. And now after Biden withdraws from the election, Marcos's biggest backer is falling. China is sincere in resolving the issue through consultation, and the Philippines has chosen to deal with the situation in a hard-nosed manner, and China is also prepared to deal with it. The incident of June 17 is an illustration of China's attitude.