Author: Zhang Jian (Vice President and Researcher, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)
On 16 July, Metzola was re-elected President of the European Parliament; On 18 July, Jael · Brown-Pieve was re-elected President of the National Assembly of France; Also on the 18th, von der Leyen was re-elected president of the European Commission.
The re-election of three female leaders has made European politics seem "calm". In fact, the gale has already "encroached upon the valley of lewdness, and is full of wrath in the mouth of the earth," and it cannot easily stop in the grass.
Since June, the European Parliament election, the United Kingdom general election and the France parliamentary election have exposed the trend of social division, political fragmentation and polarization in Europe. The general setbacks of those in power, the lack of public awareness and helplessness towards traditional politicians and political parties, the sharp rise in the influence of "Europhobic" political forces, and the unprecedented uncertainty of Europe's future.
On July 18, the European Parliament held a plenary session in Strasbourg, France, and Ursula · von der Leyen was re-elected president of the European Commission by vote. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhao Dingzhe
"Rebellion after Disillusionment"
The three elections were different and had very different results, such as the general election in United Kingdom that produced a stable majority government, while France produced a so-called suspended parliament, in which no party or coalition of parties obtained an absolute majority. But the commonality is also very prominent, that is, the rulers have been rebelled by the voters, and discontent and even anger are pervasive in European society.
First, the trend of political fragmentation in Europe is accelerating. Over the past 20 years or so, European politics has been marked by fragmentation. The big parties are not big, the small parties are not small, and the more political parties enter the parliament, and only the three, four, or even five or six parties can form a ruling coalition.
In the European Parliament elections, only the center-right People's Party and the center-left Socialist Party (PSP) were able to obtain a stable majority of seats, but this time the People's Party, the Socialist Group, and the European Renaissance Group won a stable majority.
In France's parliamentary elections, the dispersion of seats is more severe than in 2022. In the United Kingdom parliamentary elections, Labour won 412 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, seemingly one-sided, but in fact benefited from a so-called winner-takes-all electoral system. Labour's share of the vote is only 34%, which means that United Kingdom society is also very divided and politically fragmented.
Second, the trend of political polarization in Europe has accelerated. Looking at the European Parliament elections over the past few decades, the share of votes of the so-called extremist parties, especially the far-right populist parties, which have been ostracized by mainstream politics, has been growing steadily and rapidly. In the 2019 European Parliament elections, far-right parties won about one-fifth of the seats, but this time they have won a quarter.
In France, the far-right National Rally became the largest party in France in the European Parliament elections, winning 89 seats in 2022 and 143 in the National Assembly, despite being squeezed by almost all other parties.
In Germany, the far-right AfD Germany, founded only in 2013, has quickly become a political force to be reckoned with, winning more seats in the European Parliament than the ruling three parties to become the second largest party in Germany after the Christian Democratic Union.
In Italy, the ruling far-right Brothers of Italy won again in the European Parliament elections.
Third, the development trend of "gamification" of European politics has accelerated. The failure of political functioning in Europe is not a new phenomenon. Over the past few decades, neither the change of party nor the change of people has been able to solve the many economic and social problems that the European people are concerned about. The people's sense of helplessness and disillusionment with politics and elections, as well as their distrust of traditional political parties and politicians, are growing.
European countries themselves believe that the European Parliament elections are "protest votes", that is, people use the European Parliament elections every five years to vent their dissatisfaction with their own ruling parties and politicians. However, the question of the representativeness of the will of the European Parliament and the legitimacy of the exercise of power will only become more prominent.
France's Fifth Republic was originally intended to ensure a strong president and government, but in 2022 it failed to produce a majority government. The National Assembly elections have exacerbated the government's instability and uncertainty, as if it is returning to the chaos of the Fourth Republic. The United Kingdom Labour Party's 34% majority of seats does not reflect the majority of public opinion at all, but only further strengthens the people's disgust and disillusionment with politics.
On July 4, voting began in the elections for the House of Commons of the United Kingdom Parliament. A man leaves after casting his vote at a polling station. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Ying
A long-standing dilemma
Behind the change in people's minds is the result of the combined effect of a series of long-standing and intractable problems in Europe.
First, the economic downturn. The 20 years since the beginning of the 21st century can be described as the 20 years lost by Europe, the European economy has continued to suffer from multiple crisis shocks, the average growth rate is less than half of that of United States, and the total economic output of Greece, Italy and other countries has not yet recovered to the level before the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008.
The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 has had an unprecedented impact on the European economy, including inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. In 2023, the eurozone, the core of the European economy, will grow by only 0.5%, the 11 member states of the European Union will fall into negative growth, and the largest economy, Germany, will decline by 0.3%; In 2024, the eurozone is expected to grow by only a modest 0.8%, and this is likely to be a relatively optimistic estimate.
The United Kingdom's economic development has stagnated since Brexit, falling into recession in 2023 and only growing slightly by 0.7% in 2024, with 71% of the population believing that the economic situation has deteriorated after Brexit. In addition, the fiscal deficits and public debts of countries such as Britain and France are growing rapidly, and it is difficult to be optimistic about future economic development.
The second is social differentiation. In general, social polarization in Europe continues to develop, especially the growing antagonism between elites and ordinary people.
The so-called elites in Europe, whether left or right, have roughly the same views on geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as well as issues such as climate change and values.
The legitimate demands and dissenting opinions of ordinary people are ignored or suppressed. For example, the cost of living crisis brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the refugee problem, the energy problem and the problem of Ukraine's agricultural products have seriously affected the lives of the middle class and the bottom people in Europe, but this is taken for granted by the elite class and is a price that must be paid. It is against this backdrop that the Europe-wide peasant protests since 2024 have taken place. Not only agriculture, but also protests and demonstrations in other industries.
More and more Europeans are dissatisfied with their own political system and political figures, such as a considerable number of France who consider President Emmanuel Macron to be a "rich man's president". Some people blame the EU for the increase in refugees and illegal immigration, and as a result, far-right parties that advocate hard-line policies and reclaim national sovereignty are gaining support. Unable to respond effectively to popular concerns, the EU is increasingly perceived as a bureaucracy that is high above and detached from the people; At the same time, member states have been limited in their ability to respond to public concerns in a timely and effective manner by handing over some of their powers to the EU.
The essence of European integration is to gradually reduce national sovereignty while gradually building European sovereignty. In this process, the contradictions between European sovereignty and national sovereignty have also continued to accumulate. This is a structural problem with European characteristics, which is becoming more and more acute and a dilemma.
Myths in deep sorrow
In the post-war decades, the EU and European integration have encountered many crises, but in the end they have been able to overcome them, which is the so-called "crisis-driven theory". However, unlike in the past, the problems and crises facing Europe today are not singular, but comprehensive and comprehensive, and economic, social, geopolitical and security issues are intertwined and more complex and difficult to solve. Moreover, Europe is now in an even more disadvantaged position globally, with a reduced ability to respond to and solve complex problems.
It is even more difficult for Europe to advance its strategic autonomy. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe has formed an all-round dependence on United States economy, finance, energy and security, far more than during the Cold War. Correspondingly, there is a trend of "vassalization" in Europe, which Macron fears, that is, as a dependent of the United States, it has to serve the interests of United States more, even if in many cases it is detrimental to its own interests. Europe's security, energy, economic, and financial policies are fully constrained by United States, making it difficult to develop independently, the society is more divided, and the external environment is more severe.
It is more difficult for Europe to push for integration and structural reforms. Integration is the most important source of European strength, but integration is like riding a bicycle, and if you don't move forward, you will have problems. Since the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, the EU has been tinkering with the Treaty for many years and has failed to amend the Treaty to address a series of structural problems in integration. On the contrary, problems such as north-south contradictions, east-west contradictions, and German-French differences continue to accumulate. With the continuous development of political fragmentation and polarization, the French and German governments are more weak, and the prospects for future integration are bleak.
It is even more difficult for Europe to pursue rational and pragmatic domestic and foreign policies. In today's Europe, pan-politicization and pan-security continue to ferment, greatly reducing the space for rational thinking and pragmatic policies, political correctness has increasingly become a taboo that is difficult to touch, conservatism, introversion, and xenophobia are becoming the trend, and the trend of fortressization is becoming more and more obvious, and the EU's past prosperity and influence come from open development and inclusive development.
It can be said that the current economic predicament of the EU is largely related to the EU's pan-politicization and pan-security thinking. The lack of rationality, pragmatism, and inclusiveness will only further exacerbate Europe's economic woes and lead to more social and political problems, thus making Europe more insecure and creating a vicious circle.
On the occasion of the siege of "Europnoy", the flowers float and flow freely?
At the crossroads of history, how Europe chooses is of great importance to itself and to the world. There is no doubt that an independent, open, inclusive, rational and pragmatic development path will lead to a better future for Europe, which will benefit Europe and the world.
Guangming Daily (2024-07-24 Edition 12)
Source: Guangming Net-Guangming Daily