The "decisive battle" between China and the United States in the Paris Olympics, swimming will affect the final pattern?

Xu Shaolian

2024-07-24 20:24Posted in Beijing Sports Creators

In two days, the Paris Olympics will begin. But while the athletes from all walks of life are gearing up, the Chinese and American swimmers have long been competing with each other - the United States is trying its best to smear Chinese swimming, and the Chinese swimming team is gritting its teeth and hoping to hit its opponent hard in the arena. In fact, before the Paris Olympics, swimming was the sport that attracted the most attention. It is not without reason that the Chinese swimming team set off as early as July 5 and became the first major force of the Chinese delegation to Paris. For the Chinese and American delegations, swimming may not only become the main battlefield of the "decisive battle" between the two sides, but may even become the key to the success or failure of the Olympic Games between the two sides. 

The Chinese swimming team went all out.

Why swimming? Head to head, one loses the other!

At the Tokyo Olympics, the United States delegation did not "successfully reverse" until the last day, overwhelming the Chinese delegation with a gold advantage of 1 and avoiding the top spot in the gold medal list. Three years later, when the outside world predicted the performance of the Chinese and American delegations at the Paris Olympics, "stalemate" became the key word again. Nielsen's Gracenote Sports' prediction is 37 gold medals in United States and 36 gold medals in China. Three years ago, the company's forecast was "43 gold in United States and 38 gold in China." It is clear that the company accurately predicted the number of gold medals won by the Chinese delegation that year, but "overestimated" the United States delegation. Today, the company believes that the difference between China and the United States is only one gold medal, which is undoubtedly the result of "bowing to reality" - United States sports are still strong, but the gold medal competitiveness is also really declining.

Pan Zhanle, absolute speed.

 Why is swimming the "main battlefield" of the U.S.-China rivalry and nothing else? It's also very simple, this is the "frontal battlefield" of Chinese and American athletes - other sports are either particularly strong in China, such as diving and table tennis, or United States is particularly strong, such as track and field. Only in swimming, although United States has been the leader for a long time, China's rise is also obvious to all. At the Tokyo Olympics, the United States team won 11 gold medals in swimming, and the Chinese team also scored 3 golds. And, more importantly, in the past nearly three years, on the one hand, United States swimming has been significantly weak, on the other hand, Chinese swimming has begun to soar, coupled with the strength of the Australia team, the map of world swimming has obviously changed - in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, United States 11 gold, Australia 9 gold, China 3 gold; At the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka, Australia will have 13 golds, United States 7 golds, and China 5 golds; At the 2024 World Championships in Doha, United States 8 golds, China 7 golds, Australia 3 golds...... Although many famous athletes did not participate in the World Championships in Doha at the beginning of the year, the trend of weakening the advantage of United States swimming should be said to be relatively obvious. 

Zhang Yufei, strength speaks.

In 2023, Qin Haiyang won 3 gold medals in individual events at the World Championships in Fukuoka, becoming a veritable "World Frog King" and successfully elected as the world's best male swimmer that year;United States In 2024, at the World Championships in Doha, Pan Zhanle set a world record in the men's 100-meter freestyle with a time of 46.80 seconds; Also in Doha, Tang won the gold medal in the women's 100m breaststroke, and she is also the creator of the world's best result in the event this year. This event used to be the strong point of Chinese swimming, and Tang Qianting's performance can be regarded as a regain. In addition to Pan Zhanle and Tang Qianting, the Chinese athletes who entered the Paris Olympics as the "world's best result creator" this year, as well as the veteran Wang Shun. Although there is still a significant gap between the three best of the Chinese team and the nine best of the United States team, as long as the performance of Qin Haiyang, Zhang Yufei and Li Bingjie in their respective events is superimposed, supplemented by the strength of the Chinese team in several relay events that cannot be ignored, the number of gold medals won by the Chinese swimming team at the Paris Olympics will exceed the previous one, which will be a high probability fact. The youthful storm and rapid attack of the Chinese team, and the continued stability and rich experience of Australia are the last things that the United States team wants to see, but cannot but face. 

Tang Qianting, regain lost ground.

It should be pointed out that although Drexel, who won 5 gold medals in the last Olympics, has now announced his comeback and qualified for two individual events, his overall strength is obviously not comparable to that of three years ago. Relatively speaking, Ledecky's performance was much more consistent, and it was no surprise that he qualified for the Olympic Games in the 200m, 400m, 800m and 1500m freestyle events. In the past three Olympic Games, she has won 7 gold and 3 silver, but now that she has a strong opponent like Australia's Titmus, and China's Li Bingjie is becoming more and more competitive, she needs to be further verified for her contribution and driving role in United States swimming while making her own history this time. 

Ledecky, setting records.

To be sure, United States swimming can still win more gold medals in swimming than China at the Paris Olympics, but the gap between the two sides is also almost certainly not as much as the eight gold medals in the previous edition. If so, one can imagine what that would mean for United States delegations.

Why United States? Geopolitics, invasion of sports!

According to the schedule, the swimming competition at the Paris Olympics will take place from July 27 to August 4. Since the end of April, the United States side has been waving the banner of "anti-doping" to put pressure on Chinese swimming through multiple channels and in all directions, and has objectively formed unfair treatment of Chinese swimmers. To put it bluntly, the United States has extended geopolitics to the field of sports. 

Wang Shun, bravely take the lead.

The so-called doping problem of Chinese swimmers that United States is holding on to is not complicated to say — in early 2021, 23 athletes tested positive for doping during the Chinese swimming team's domestic competition in Shijiazhuang. It is obviously impossible that such a large area of positivity is the result of all these athletes "taking risks" at the same time, and after investigation, traces of the "culprit" trimetazidine were found in the kitchen of the hotel where the team was staying. Obviously, this is a group positive that is clearly caused by food contamination, and the athlete is innocent. As a result, the China Anti-Doping Center reported the results to the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) and the then FINA respectively, and the two agencies agreed with the results. However, at the end of April this year, after the United States learned the relevant information, it first "exposed" through the media to put pressure on WADA and World Aquatics, and then the United States House of Representatives requested a criminal investigation to the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), making an accident that had become a thing of the past become a "handle" to now accuse and smear Chinese swimming. 

WADA, compromise in disguise.

It should be pointed out that although WADA and FINA chose to side with the Chinese team in the face of United States' accusations, in fact, the relevant independent investigations conducted by these two institutions are strictly only a kind of "self-protection", so while accusing the United States of "stretching its hand", they have also increased the "strict management" of the Chinese swimming team - FINA made it clear that the doping tests of competitors before the Paris Olympics were no less than 4 times. He also emphasized that the testing of Chinese players will be no less than 8 times, which is an obvious "double standard". WADA, as a specific anti-doping operator, is even more "resolute" - according to the latest data, since the beginning of this year, 31 Chinese swimmers participating in the Paris Olympics have been tested 13 times per person, exceeding the "8 times" mentioned by FINA as said. Meanwhile, the 46 United States athletes competing in Paris have been tested only six times per person, and the 41-member Australia team has been tested four times per capita. 

Qin Haiyang is ready to go.

There is no doubt that it is not only United States who are currently "wearing colored glasses" to watch China swimming, so the influence of United States as the initiator should not be underestimated. So, for the Chinese swimming team, in the face of such a huge unfairness, how should we respond? There are many answers, and there is no such thing as a standard answer, but it is certain that at the moment of the competition, playing with dignity and defeating the opponent cleanly is undoubtedly the most relieving and speechless way to fight back. Therefore, although Chinese swimmers may inevitably hold back a lot of grievances in their hearts now, in reality, it is better to focus on the competition first. After winning the game, it is not too late to "settle accounts after the autumn". 

FBI, meddling in sports.

Returning to the competition for the gold medal list between China and the United States, if the Chinese swimming team wins 2 to 3 more gold medals than Tokyo, the Australia team "cannibalizes" 1 to 2 gold medals, and the United States team cannot reach double digits for gold medals, the embarrassment and passivity of the overall situation of the United States delegation will be clear at a glance. Obviously, it is impossible for United States people not to know what it means for them to lose the main position of swimming, so it is not difficult to understand why the key to the "decisive battle" between China and the United States lies in swimming......

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