(The authors of this article are Xiao Jiewen and Zhang Wenlang, analysts of the Research Department of CICC)
United States real GDP in the second quarter of 2024 was 2.8% on an annualized basis, exceeding market expectations of 2.0% and rebounding significantly from 1.4% in the first quarter. In terms of sub-items, personal consumption spending accelerated, corporate equipment investment was strong, and inventories rebounded, indicating that United States economic growth is still healthy and the probability of a recession in the short term may not be large. In fact, some of the economic data since June has improved, which may indicate that economic growth will remain solid in the third quarter. From the Fed's perspective, this data does not provide a good reason for an early rate cut. Instead, the data supports the Fed to be patient and avoid overreacting to short-term volatility. We maintain our view that the Fed will cut rates once in Q4.
United States GDP exceeded market expectations in the second quarter, and domestic demand rebounded strongly. The annualized rate of real GDP of 2.8% exceeded market expectations of 2.0%, and also rebounded significantly from 1.4% in the first quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers, a key measure of domestic demand, rebounded to 2.7% on an annualized basis from 2.4% in the previous quarter. The final sales of domestic purchases include personal consumption expenditure, private investment in fixed assets (excluding inventories), and government expenditure.
In terms of sub-items, personal consumption expenditure accelerated, with real consumption in the second quarter at an annualized rate of 2.3% quarter-on-quarter, an increase of 1.5% from 1.5% in the previous quarter, contributing 1.6 percentage points to GDP. Among them, after falling by 2.3% quarter-on-quarter in the previous quarter, consumer spending on goods turned to a positive year-on-year growth of 2.5% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. Consumption of services slowed slightly. Investment in fixed assets performed well, investment in equipment was strong, and inventories rebounded. The quarter-on-quarter growth rate of equipment investment rose sharply to 11.6% from 1.6% in the previous quarter, contributing 0.6 percentage points to GDP, indicating that companies are increasing capital spending. We speculate that this may be related to the capital expenditure brought about by AI. Inventory investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth, showing some signs of replenishment. In contrast, construction investment, which performed better last year, fell month-on-month and property investment also slowed, suggesting that higher interest rates were adversely affecting property development activity. Imports accelerated compared with the first quarter, with the import of industrial-related capital goods pulling significantly, which is also corroborated by the acceleration of the equipment investment cycle. The data showed that United States economic growth remained healthy, albeit at a more modest pace compared to the second half of last year.
The latest data shows that economic growth will remain solid in the third quarter. Looking back at the second quarter, although the data in April and May were weak, the data since June has improved. For example, retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and petrol stations, rose 0.8% and real industrial output rose 0.6% in June, both beating market expectations. S&P Global's United States Composite PMI showed business activity climbed to its highest point since April 2022 in July. Among them, business activity in the service sector accelerated at the fastest pace in more than two years.
In the labour market, while the recent rise in unemployment has raised concerns about a "non-linear" inflection point, our in-depth analysis shows that the pattern of unemployment is different from usual. The increase in unemployment is mainly due to the increase in labor supply, such as the return of young people to workforce and the influx of immigrants, rather than large-scale layoffs by companies, so it is unlikely to have a "multiplier effect" that triggers a contraction in demand and a recession. In addition, an increase in the supply of labor will also create new demand, which is also a good thing for short-term economic growth. Overall, we do not see a tendency for the economy to fall off a cliff, so in the short term, the probability of a recession in the United States is not very likely.
Inflation eased in the second quarter, but not as much as the market expected. The core PCE index fell to 2.9% QoQ at an annualized rate in the second quarter from 3.7% in the previous quarter, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. In terms of sub-items, the growth rate of the goods price index rebounded to 0.7% in the previous quarter after falling quarter-on-quarter for two consecutive quarters, and the growth rate of service prices eased to 3.6% from 5.4% in the previous quarter. This suggests that inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, but not to the point where they can be taken lightly.
From the Fed's point of view, this data does not provide sufficient justification for an early rate cut. The Federal Reserve will hold its July interest rate meeting next week, and this GDP data has reassured it, and the need for an emergency interest rate cut in July can be ruled out. In addition, the resilience of economic growth will increase the uncertainty of future monetary policy, and the current CME Fed Funds futures data reflect that the market is pricing in a rate cut in September with a high probability of 87%, but whether it can actually be implemented is still full of uncertainties, and there are still two sets of non-farm payrolls and two sets of CPI inflation data between now and the September interest rate meeting. One risk to watch is that Wall Street has always overreacted in cutting rates, as it did at the beginning of the year when it was predicted that the Fed would cut rates 6-7 times in 2024. Relative to the market, we think the Fed should be patient and avoid overreacting to short-term volatility. Until there is more data, we maintain our judgment that the Fed will cut rates once in Q4.
Chart 1: Domestic demand in the United States economy remains solid, rebounding at an accelerated pace in the second quarter
Source: Haver, CICC Research
Chart 2: Core PCE inflation has beaten market expectations for two consecutive quarters
Source: Haver, CICC Research
Figure 3: Consumer demand remains dynamic
Source: Haver, CICC Research
Chart 4: United States Industrial Production Rebounds Rapidly in June
Source: Haver, CICC Research
Chart 5: Changes in the number of unemployed due to different causes
Source: Haver, CICC Research
Figure 6: Percentage of unemployed by cause
Note: The unemployment rate data in this chart is seasonally adjusted, and the unemployed data is guaranteed to add up to 100% of the change percentage, using non-seasonally adjusted data. However, because the number of unemployed is compared with 12 and 24 months later, it is less affected by seasonality
Source: Haver, CICC Research
Dr. Liu Zhengning also contributed to this article.
(This article represents the author's personal views only)