Now it seems that this war between Russia and Ukraine has been fought for more than 2 years. Many people believe that the United States election is shaping the direction of the war.
It's really hard to say, whether there is support or not, Ukraine certainly don't want to look at their land in vain and become the territory of another country. And Russia, having consumed so many manpower and material resources, naturally cannot easily give up the territory that has been laid.
It can be said that if either side retreats, then their people will be regarded as sinners for the ages by their own country, and it depends on who is willing to be the sinner of the ages. Therefore, the possibility of a protracted war cannot be ruled out.
This reminds me of another war launched by Tsarist Russia in the 16th century, the Livonian War. At first, people thought it was just a small friction, but it turned out to be 25 years old.
Livonian War, Ivan IV intended to annex the Baltic coast
Livonia refers to a region on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea, also known as Livland, which is equivalent to most of present-day Estonia and Latvia.
In the 13th century, the Germans came here and formed the Knights of the Holy Sword. By the 16th century, the region had been scattered into numerous city-states and several bishops.
Therefore, not only Tsarist Russia has set its sights on the territory of Livonia, but also the Kingdom of Sweden and the Kingdom of Poland next door have also regarded this place as a fragrant glutton, which can be described as a must-win.
Originally, in 1503, Tsar Ivan III signed a 50-year peace treaty with the Knights of the Sword of Livonia, and the two sides still kept the agreement.
However, in 1557, Tsar Ivan IV proposed an extension of the peace treaty. At that time, Tsarist Russia had already annexed the Kazan Khanate and the Astrakhan Khanate, and its strength was strong. Livonia, on the other hand, is in a scattered situation. The renewal of the peace treaty is clearly in Livonia's favour.
But how can there be a free lunch in the world, Ivan IV put forward very harsh conditions:
- First, if Tsarist Russia and Poland were at war, Livonia would have to remain neutral. But in the process of neutrality, the Russian army had to be allowed to pass through.
- Second, Ivan IV believed that the reason why Livonia had been able to develop peacefully for the past 50 years was due to the protection of Tsarist Russia. Therefore, Ivan IV demanded that Livonia pay the reparations for the past 50 years within three years.
Isn't it a slap in the face to want others to remain neutral and to march on the road of others? Moreover, the previous peace treaty was an agreement that was beneficial to both sides, so how did it become evidence that Tsarist Russia protected Livonia? Still want to pay compensation? It's just a joke.
Moreover, Ivan IV asked for too much money for Livonia to muster together. At this time, Ivan IV can be regarded as finding a reason, and directly sent troops to Livonia in 1558.
The Order of the Sword of Livonia was already an empty shelf at the time, and it was simply powerless to resist the Tsarist Russia, so the Tsarist Russia soon occupied the eastern territory of Livonia.
Tsarist Russia fought for 25 years and still lost
Livonia's location is so good, close to the Baltic Sea, that several of the neighbors around it want to take the land for themselves. Poland, Lithuania, Denmark and Sweden are not fuel-efficient lamps.
At that time, Livonia was also divided into different groups, and they each went to seek help from a certain country to resist the invasion of Tsarist Russia.
Thus, by 1560, Lithuania occupied Livonia proper, Poland occupied Courland, Sweden occupied northern Estonia, and Denmark occupied Urser. In short, these neighbors have each obtained a piece of land in Livonia.
Ivan IV's original plan was to annex all of Livonia and expand Tsarist Russia's sphere of influence to the Baltic coast. As a result, these neighbors came to intervene and took away vital coastal areas. Ivan IV naturally could not bear it, so in 1562, Tsarist Russia began to fight against Lithuania, and the Livonian War resumed waves.
Although Lithuania was defeated, they were not vegetarians, and Lithuania secretly gave the Crimean Khanate a sum of money to attack Moscow, which resulted in the tragedy of Moscow being razed to the ground and Ivan IV almost being captured alive.
At the same time, Poland and Lithuania formed the Poland Lithuania Confederation in 1569 to fight together against Tsarist Russia. Denmark and Sweden also launched wars against Russia in 1570.
This is not over, the Ottoman Turkey in the south, once again joined forces with the younger brother Crimean Khanate, intending to defeat Tsarist Russia and restore the Kazan Khanate and the Astrakhan Khanate.
Ivan IV, who made enemies on all sides, was simply unable to resist opponents in so many directions, even if he used marriage methods to temporarily hold down Denmark. But Tsarist Russia could not deal with the Poland Lithuania Federation, the Sweden Kingdom and the Ottoman Turkey at the same time.
Therefore, in 1583, the Livonian War, which lasted for 25 years, ended in the defeat of Tsarist Russia. The Kingdom of Sweden got almost all the coastal strips of the region and emerged as the biggest winner.
As a result of this defeat, Ivan IV was exhausted, and the following year, Ivan IV fell ill and died. It can be said that it is inextricably linked to the defeat of the Livonian War.
is also one enemy with many, can you change your life against the sky this time?
The situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war is actually very similar to the Livonian war. When Russia seized Crimea in 2014, Ukraine was already furious.
This matter is understandable, such a large piece of territory, but also an economic, strategic place, was taken away by Russia in vain, and no one in Ukraine will be comfortable.
However, Russia is a big country after all, and Ukraine is relatively weak and does not dare to confront it at all. So they can only swallow their anger and wait for the future to regain the lost ground.
As a result, in 2022, Russia will make a comeback and occupy the four eastern regions of Ukraine. Now the Ukraine can't sit still, it's enough to hit the face once, can't you snap one after another, right?
But you let Ukraine deal with Russia, Ukraine really doesn't have that strength. After all, Ukraine has even destroyed its nuclear weapons, where does it have the confidence to fight against Russia?
As a result, at the critical moment, NATO countries began to support Ukraine one after another, so that the war did not develop in a one-sided direction. This is somewhat similar to the fact that in the Livonian War, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Lithuania, Ottoman Turkey and other countries supported Livonia against Tsarist Russia.
In the past, Tsarist Russia single-handedly challenged various powers, and now Russia is also competing with NATO countries with its own strength. It can only be said that history really jokes, and always makes similar jokes.
However, the reality is that in the Livonian War, Tsarist Russia competed with the heroes for hegemony and returned with a crushing defeat. So can Russia now avoid repeating the mistakes of the past?
Ivan IV: It would be nice to turn back early
Tsarist Russia's performance in the Livonian War was actually remarkable. The only thing I didn't expect was that the Crimean Khanate and Ottoman Turkey in the south would suddenly strike.
If Ivan IV had stopped directly after occupying the eastern part of Livonia, there would have been less trouble later. This is like if Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 and stopped it directly, then there would be no subsequent Russian-Ukrainian war. After all, there has been no fight for 8 years, and the further it drags on, the less likely it is to fight.
However, Ivan IV's ambitions were too great, he wanted the whole of Livonia, and he wanted to expand his sphere of influence to the Baltic Sea, so he started another war and was beaten by the group.
In the same situation, in 2022, Russia will attack Ukraine again. The reasons are complex, but the reality is that Russia wants to connect Crimea with the Russian mainland, so it is imperative to seize Ukraine, which is also too ambitious. As a result, it caused public outrage, and as a result, he was treated like a group beating.
If Ivan IV is allowed to choose again, then he will probably accept it when he meets well. After all, the territory of eastern Livonia has been obtained, and the chances of winning may be greater if you use this place as a base and manage it well for decades, and then find a way to seize the remaining territory. It's a pity that there is no regret medicine in the world, when I got Crimea, if I took it when I saw it, it is estimated that now the Russians have to steal the fun.