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I thought that Biden would make some concessions on foreign policy after withdrawing from the presidential race, but I never thought that United States Secretary of State Blinken would raise the foreign policy of containing China to a new height. The future situation in the Taiwan Strait is destined to rise again.
On July 27, according to media reports, China's foreign minister and United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken met and held talks at the China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting. The two sides solemnly expressed their views on the current Sino-US relations, and at the same time exchanged views on some major events that are of great concern to both countries.
However, the foreign minister's statement can be described as tough. As soon as I came up, my foreign minister said that United States has been greatly curbing and suppressing China, and although both China and the United States know that it is very important to maintain close dialogue and strengthen communication, United States has shown its sword first.
The confrontation between China and the United States has gradually intensified. If we cannot return to the normal track, Sino-US relations will not develop steadily and healthily. The Foreign Minister's statement was very clear. It not only explains the reason for the intensifying confrontation in Sino-US relations.
And it also conveys a certain sense of deterrence. That is, United States should bear the responsibility for the unstable and healthy development of Sino-US relations. Blinken said that United States is committed to maintaining the stability of China-US relations and will strengthen dialogue and cooperation in the future. This trick is actually quite typical.
That is, on the surface, they pretend to be friendly, but behind the scenes, they still increase the implementation of relevant policy guidelines. Of course, it can also be understood that Blinken's statement is to test the real reaction of the mainland, if the statement of relevant personnel on the mainland is very sharp.
There is also a strong warning and deterrence, then the United States will have to take a considerable degree of mitigation measures; On the contrary, the implementation can be strengthened. It's as if you're looking at how boiling a pot is, and then weighing the temperature of the water to make the dumplings.
This metaphor may be inappropriate, but it illustrates the double-faced nature of United States. As soon as Blinken and our foreign minister expressed their views on managing differences and enhancing mutual trust to avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations between the two sides on some major events, they turned around and ran to Japan to start secret plots.
According to media reports, on July 28, Blinken and United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Japan and held "2+2" talks with Japan Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara in Tokyo. After the meeting, the two sides announced that the US military stationed in Japan would soon establish a "United Forces Command."
The sword is pointed at the Taiwan Strait
Raising the status of the US military stationed in Japan to such a high level undoubtedly means pointing a sword at the Taiwan Strait. Why? There are three main reasons. One is that Japan is one of the countries closest to Taiwan, but Japan has an advantage over the Philippines.
Japan surpasses the Philippines much in terms of loyalty and control. Moreover United States the painstaking management of the Japan for so many years has long made Japan obedient. It can be said that Japan is now the most trusted country in East Asia by United States;
The second is that Japan's geographical location is delicate. Japan can be counted within both the first and second island chains proposed by the United States. If a conflict or war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Japan can actually help it arrive as soon as possible.
In this way, the status of United States soldiers stationed at major US military bases in Japan is very important. Finally, there is a big problem with the deployment of United States military forces in the Western Pacific. United States' military deterrence is no longer enough, and attention needs to be diverted.
On the one hand, the 2+2 format can further strengthen the relationship between the U.S. and the United States. On the other hand, it can also allow the US military stationed in Japan to assume the deterrence obligation that should be undertaken by the US military in Guam, Hawaii, and other places. It can be regarded as a choice to kill two birds with one stone, and it is very cost-effective.
A two-pronged approach
It is worth noting that Blinken not only planned to promote the "2+2 model" in Japan, but also implemented it in the Philippines. Given the weakness of the Philippine military and the disadvantage it is in a collision with China, the United States will come to the aid of the Philippines.
The $500 million United States aid will be used to upgrade Philippine weapons and equipment and improve the infrastructure conditions of US military bases in the Philippines. United States' intentions are clearly very obvious. That is to continue to encourage the Philippines to continue its provocations in the South China Sea.
Moreover, the United States will also increase the corresponding deterrence and keep the PLA highly fearful. More importantly, Blinken pretended not to pretend to be in the post-meeting position, saying that the 2+2 format is to better help the Philippines flexibly respond to threats from China in the South China Sea.
Blinken also met with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and brought Biden and Harris greetings. From Blinken's statement alone, it is clear that the Democrats' foreign policy will continue to support the Philippines in making small moves in the South China Sea.
At the same time United States will not give up contesting with the mainland on the situation in the Taiwan Strait. In other words, the blockade and encirclement on the southeast corner has intensified. United States' two-pronged move is obviously aimed at promoting the strategy of containing China to the desired effect.
Military confrontation
Only when United States politicians are satisfied can the situation be truly eased. This means that although China and the United States have not embarked on a direct military confrontation, they have already come to the situation of indirect confrontation. An arms race may no longer be inevitable in the future.
As far as the mainland is concerned, if it does not continue to increase its investment in national defense construction, it means that the provocations of the United States and the Western world in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea will further increase. At that point, the mainland may be in a rather passive disadvantageous position.
If you lose the initiative and are led by the other party, then the only possible result is that your core interests are damaged, and there is no exception. You must know that NATO's eastward expansion has been a very cheap act, but the Western world still has not stopped related behavior.
On the contrary, it is accelerating NATO's expansion in the Asia-Pacific region. This shows that the appetite of the Western world is very large, like a bottomless pit of dissatisfaction. If we do not adopt a resolute counterattack and defensive posture, the consequences can be imagined. In other words, it is not the mainland that wants to engage in it.
Rather, they have to engage in an arms race. The United States is pressuring the mainland to focus more on national defense. At the same time, sanctions are being tightened at the economic level, and this two-pronged approach actually requires great attention. Because this combination punch is very lethal.
The United States can harvest the whole world to make up for the economic decline, or it can recoup its military investment by forcibly selling weapons and equipment. But the mainland can neither follow the example of the former nor the latter. This requires planning in advance and thinking about countermeasures.
Resources:
https://www.toutiao.com/article/7396630824235319819/?channel=&source=search_tab
https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/wjbz_673089/xghd_673097/202407/t20240727_11461711.shtml
https://www.toutiao.com/article/7396939351403397632/?channel=&source=search_tab
https://www.toutiao.com/article/7397414784259473955/?channel=&source=search_tab
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