Imported cars have always been synonymous with dignity and high quality. People who can drive imported cars show that their social status is not low. Of course, imported cars maintain a good reputation in terms of car manufacturing technology and brand, so the price is relatively expensive, and even some models can't be grabbed at a price increase.
But when the time comes to 2024, the aura of imported cars will no longer be so dazzling and no longer so sought after by the market, is the myth of imported cars going to be shattered?
According to Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, China's total automobile imports from January to June 2024 will be 332,000 units, a decrease of 4% compared with the same period last year. Monthly imports in June were 61,000 units, down 2% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month from May.
Source: Cui Dongshu
In the national automobile import trend, the number of automobile imports in the past 17 years is counted. It is not difficult to see from the statistics that from 2007 to 2009, the import volume of automobiles was only about 30-400,000 units, and until 2011, the import volume of automobiles successfully exceeded 1 million units, reaching 1.04 million units. Since then, it has grown for several consecutive years, and car importers have made a lot of money.
However, after reaching a peak of 1.43 million units in 2014, automobile imports began to decline, and in 2015, automobile imports reached 1.11 million units, the largest year-on-year decline in 17 years, down 22%.
In 2017, the import volume of automobiles increased by 15% year-on-year, which moderated slightly. However, after 2018, the volume of automobile imports showed a downward trend. In 2019, it stabilized at 1.05 million units, but in 2020 it began to collapse and fell below one million units. Until the first half of this year, the number of automobile imports reached only 330,000 units.
According to this trend, 51 Jun boldly predicts that it is hopeless for the import volume of automobiles to exceed one million units this year, and even the import volume will fall back to the level of 14 years ago.
On a monthly basis, the current monthly import volume in 2024 will remain at an average of about 50,000 units per month, and the pressure of continuous contraction is greater.
Cui Dongshu pointed out that 61,000 cars were imported in June this year, down 2% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month from May, which is a rare low growth in June in history. Imports from January to April were weaker than the same period in 2023, and the import trend picked up in May and recovered from the sluggishness in June. It is still uncertain whether the previous high growth trend will be achieved in the latter part of 2024.
Source: Cui Dongshu
In terms of specific brands, the top three ultra-luxury brands in the first half of 2024 are Bentley, Maserati, and Ferrari, with sales of 1,337 units, 777 units, and 436 units, respectively. Except for Maserati, which exceeded 1,000 units, other ultra-luxury brands are in the hundreds. There are only 10 McLaren.
Not only that, the import volume of ultra-luxury brands in the first half of this year collapsed collectively year-on-year. Among them, Maserati fell 70% year-on-year, Ferrari fell 30% year-on-year, Aston Martin fell 50% year-on-year, and McLaren fell 92% year-on-year! In terms of overall ultra-luxury car imports, the first half of the year fell by 48% year-on-year.
The decline in ultra-luxury brands shows that the purchasing power of ultra-high-end consumer groups in the market is slowing down, and the imported car market is undergoing drastic changes.
In addition, the living space of first-tier luxury brands has been squeezed in recent years, and the sales of imported models of Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Audi and other brands have declined. Among them, Porsche imported 26,648 vehicles in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 39%; Volvo imported 9,517 units in the first half of the year, down 13% year-on-year. Only Lexus and BMW increased year-on-year.
It is not difficult to understand the reason for the decline in automobile import sales, which are currently mainly supported by the demand for luxury cars. These cars are basically traditional fuel vehicles, with high prices and low cost performance, and they have become no longer popular in the era of new energy vehicles. With the deepening of intelligence, consumers' demand for car purchases has changed, which has also made imported cars less popular.
According to industrial production and sales data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to June 2024, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 4.339 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%. Corresponding to the price range, the price range of 30-350,000 yuan increased by 42.5%, and the price range of more than 500,000 yuan increased by 280.6%.
Of course, the continuous rise of independent brands in the field of new energy and the promotion of new products in China are the reasons for the continuous decline in automobile imports.
Taking the MPV market as an example, the representatives of high-end MPVs in the past were Buick GL8, Toyota Alpha, Toyota Sena and other cars, even if the price increase is outrageous, they are still sought after by consumers. However, after the launch of the DENZA D9, this situation was gradually broken. In the first half of this year, the Denza D9 sold 43,207 units, ranking first among MPVs.
Compared with the imported Alpha, the DENZA D9 is not inferior to the other party in terms of quality, and the price is more acceptable to more people. The sales volume of the market can prove the strength of its products.
And there are many more examples like this. In the first half of this year, the new high-end brand Li Auto delivered a total of 188,981 new vehicles, and the AITO Wenjie series delivered a total of 181,193 vehicles in the first half of the year. BYD's premium brand expects to sell 5,500 units in the first half of the year.
In terms of brand recognition, Denza, Ideal, and Wenjie are not as luxurious as the century-old tradition, but they have reached the level of comparable to million-dollar luxury cars in terms of model configuration and quality. The self-developed core technology and smart cabin experience continue to improve, constantly catching up with the gap between traditional luxury brands and breaking through to the high-end luxury market.
In terms of intelligence and comfort, the strength of independent brands is more than equal, since you can spend about 30-500,000 yuan to buy a car with a better experience, why spend a lot of money to buy imported cars?
With the deepening of electrification, autonomous high-end models have slowly eaten away at the market share of traditional luxury brands. In the face of the rapidly changing market environment, the once popular imported brands are gradually losing their competitiveness. The transformation of electrification has changed the market demand structure, and the demand for imported fuel vehicles is weakening, and it is impossible to rely on brand influence to summon consumers as in the past. If we want to change this situation, the key is to strengthen product strength and improve user experience.
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Legal adviser
Beijing Weiheng (Fuzhou) Law Firm, Lai Chenglong, lawyer