Today! Iran may launch a retaliatory operation
Before you know it, the Paris Olympics are halfway through, but at the same time, Lao Mo noticed that a real war is brewing in the Middle East, and according to the United States, there is a possibility of breaking out within 24 hours.
Why is there another fight in the Middle East?
First, on the 27th of last month, the Israel said that the Lebanon Allah party had fired rockets at the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, hitting a local Druze community football field, killing at least 12 people, including children, and injuring dozens more.
Although Allah strenuously denied that it had killed the non-Jewish children, but admitted that it had indeed fired rockets into the Golan Heights that day, Israeli warplanes launched a targeted killing operation in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, on 30 July, killing Allah's military commander and head of the strategic forces, Fouad · Shukur.
So when did the Israel and Allah retribution lead to renewed tensions in the Middle East?
Unfortunately, on July 31, another tragedy really brought the Middle East's fighting spirit to a climax when Hamas Politburo leader Ismail · Haniye was killed in Tehran, the capital of Iran.
This time, it was the turn of the Israelis to deny that they had done it, but all indications were that Israel agents were the ones responsible for Chania's death.
So Lao Mo noticed that there was internal information that on the day of Hania's death, Iran's supreme leader Khamenei ordered a direct attack on Israel in retaliation. Coupled with Allah, whose own top leaders have just been blown up, it is an indisputable fact that Iran and Allah have established a united front to jointly attack Israel on "multiple fronts".
But do Iran and Allah really intend to fight Israel?
Xiao Lin noticed that the Iran and the Allah Party have been unusually quiet in the past few days, which in itself is a very bad signal of war, and more importantly, there are many signs that at least United States people really believe that Iran people are going to "come in a big wave":
First of all, on August 2, New York State Congressman Geller posted on social platforms that at about 9 o'clock that night, the number of customers in the pizza parlors near the Pentagon surged sharply, while the number of customers in the surrounding bars dropped sharply, indicating that the tension in the Middle East has caused a large number of Pentagon staff to work overtime.
Although this "pizza index" sounds very unreliable, it is indeed quite accurate - in the early morning of August 4, local time, Allah took the lead and fired dozens of rockets into northern Israel, although it did not cause any casualties, but forced many countries in the United States and the West to urge their citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible. Three United States and Israel officials made predictions directly to the United States media "AXIOS" on the same day:
Iran is highly likely to launch an attack on Israel on August 5.
Also on August 4, Iran's parliament speaker Kalibaf publicly stated for the first time on behalf of the Iran government that Iran would respond strongly to the matter, that Iran's strong military might would teach Israel and its supporter United States a "historic lesson," and that Iran's tough response would make Israel and United States regret the assassination of Hania.
Think about it, the assassination of a high-ranking member of another country's organization in Tehran, the capital of his country, is, in the words of a certain Iran diplomat, that he has stepped on all the red lines of Iran, which is no different from a declaration of war; In addition, Hamas's top leadership, which is an anti-Israel ally, was assassinated by Israelis on its own turf, so what kind of face does Iran have in the future to call itself the boss of the anti-Israel camp?
Iran's retaliation is only a matter of time.
The United States mobilized its allies to fight the war
So Shinobayashi noticed that while believing that the Iranians dared to "mess around", the United States' own military preparations and urging their allies to respond to the war were also going on non-stop:
On August 2, the United States Department of Defense announced the deployment of the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier battle group to the Middle East to replace the USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier battle group currently in the Gulf of Oman, as well as additional ballistic missile-capable cruisers and destroyers, as well as a new fighter squadron to the Middle East and Europe;
On August 3, United States Central Command Commander Kurilla personally visited the Middle East to mobilize Jordan and other United States allies in the region to protect Israel from Iran;
On August 4, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken told G7 foreign ministers that the attack could begin as early as the next 24 to 48 hours, that is, as early as Monday. The implication is to call on the G7 members to work with United States to protect Israel.
But is this mobilization effort of United States useful? Lao Mo believes that this actually directly depends on whether Iran's retaliatory actions will rise to the height of a full-scale war.
And Lao Mo's judgment is that Iran will not raise retaliation to the level of a full-scale war at all.
As for the reason, it's actually not hard to guess:
First, although it lost two anti-Israel generals in a row, it was never Iran's own loss, and Iran could not afford to play so hard for these two essentially subordinate allies, namely Allah and Hamas;
Second, Iran knows very well that if it launches a full-scale war, it will definitely not be able to defeat Israel, and United States has a great probability of personally ending up, and if one is not good, Iran itself will be folded in this war;
Third, the countries of the Middle East do not want to fight any all-out war against Israel, especially Jordan, which is next door to Israel, and this is the main reason why the United States dare to mobilize Jordan to defend Israel. For Iran, a full-scale war that has brought all Sunni Middle Eastern countries back against itself is more than worth the loss.
But on the other hand, since it is certain that Iran will not launch a full-scale war, then for this kind of "small fight", the Middle East countries naturally have no interest in going all out, and the United States' efforts to win over allies to defend Israel will have extremely limited results - the consequences of conniving at Israel's chaos must be the responsibility of the United States themselves.
In the end, Israel, Iran and United States will be chicken feathers again.
Mass riots broke out in United Kingdom! The worst in 13 years
The Middle East is stormy, and interestingly, in United Kingdom, United Kingdom, a staunch ally of the United States, the conflict between locals and Muslims has exploded.
On July 29, local time, a gangster suddenly broke into a summer dance class classroom in Southport Town, northwest England, and stabbed three little girls who were attending class to death.
Although the United Kingdom police did not disclose information about the murderer, it was precisely because of this move that United Kingdom quickly spread rumors that the murderer was a 17-year-old Islamic immigrant named Axel · Rudakubana.
As a result, starting on July 31, a protest demonstration with the main demand for the expulsion of foreign Muslim immigrants quickly swept through the United Kingdom and gradually escalated into far-right violence, arson and looting. Reuters pointed out that so far, the most widespread violent riot in United Kingdom in 13 years has led to the arrest of more than 150 people, and even near 10 Downing Street, the official residence of the United Kingdom prime minister, Molotov cocktails have been thrown by rioters.
So, what's the problem?
Lao Mo believes that in fact, the protest groups have long written their motives clearly on their faces: after more than ten years of torture by the left, especially the extreme left, "political correctness" and illegal immigration, the pressure of the right-wing groups in United Kingdom, and even the "silent majority", has long been close to the limit, and this incident is only a fuse for the emotions of the latter two to finally burst out.
Unfortunately, the United Kingdom police, or rather, the ruling class, were aware of the dangers of the problem, and deliberately emphasized after the riots that the killers were not immigrants but were born in United Kingdom. But the United Kingdom police also had to admit that their parents were indeed authentic Rwandan immigrants.
In the eyes of the xenophobic rioters, what is the difference between these black immigrants who most likely came to United Kingdom as refugees and the foreign Muslim groups who also came to United Kingdom under the label of refugees?
Mo noted that even United Kingdom Prime Minister Starmer had to urgently stand up, but the problem was that Starmer, the leader of the left-wing Labour Party, did not appease the angry United Kingdom people or condemn the murderers, but instead focused his attacks on far-right groups, declaring that he would "bring these rioters to justice at all costs" while increasing the protection of mosques.
Lao Mo really wants to ask Starmer, in the context of the European continent has collectively turned to the right, is your Excellency so proactive in "declaring war" on the far right, do you really hope that United Kingdom will also keep up with the pace of the European continent?
From United States to United Kingdom, these traditional Western powers are accumulating new mistakes for themselves.