#秋日随记#
You see, although the trend of net profit margin on sales is declining (but in fact, the decline is not large), the increase in equity multiplier and the increase in total asset turnover have driven the increase in ROE
Among them, the total asset turnover ratio increased from 0.7 to 0.97, and the equity multiplier increased from 1.19 to 1.36.
Since both factors are on the rise, which one plays a decisive role?
We use factor analysis, that is, assuming that there is only one influencing factor, and deriving the corresponding changes
It can be seen that changes in ROE are more sensitive to changes in total asset turnover.
As with the analysis above, the main reason for the increase in total asset turnover is that the growth rate of total assets is not as fast as the growth rate of revenue
That's still the same logic as the analysis above, let's find out which asset is changing faster every week.
From 2011 to 2014, the accounts receivable turnover ratio decreased from 7.07 to 4.81, the inventory turnover ratio increased from 3.78 to 5.15, and the monetary capital turnover ratio increased from 1.06 to 2.92
It can be seen that the increase in total asset turnover is mainly affected by the inventory turnover rate and the monetary capital turnover rate.
Among them, the proportion of monetary funds in total assets is 48%-65%, which is the main reason
The increase in monetary capital turnover was mainly due to the impact of the IPO in 2010, and the monetary capital turnover was reduced to a minimum
Then, with the gradual commissioning of fund-raising projects, its revenue continued to grow rapidly
From 2011 to 2014, its four-year revenue compound growth rate reached 48.78%, and the effect of asset investment in driving revenue was good, resulting in an increase in total asset turnover
In addition, there are other reasons for such rapid revenue growth
In 2011, video surveillance giants launched a price war in order to improve market concentration and crack down on copycat products
The price of Haikang 4-way DVR has dropped from more than 700 yuan to less than 300 yuan, and the price of similar DVR in Dahua has also dropped to 40%
Genuine products have dropped to "copycat prices", and many small businesses have difficulty surviving.
After this step, Hikvision's revenue has tripled in four years, and the global market has also risen from 8% in 2012 to 16.3%, and in 2012, it became the world's No. 1 and continues to maintain
Seeing this, it is not over yet, there is another detail in the above chart, that is, the decline in the turnover rate of accounts receivable. This means that the credit period will be relaxed for the downstream
Why?
Because, during the price war, a moderate relaxation of the credit cycle can help enterprises seize market share.
Considering the particularity of its downstream customers, even with the relaxed credit cycle, Hikvision's accounts receivable turnover speed is the first in the industry, and its accounts receivable turnover days are the lowest, about 100 days
In the same industry, it is basically more than 100 days.
This shows that Hikvision's voice in the downstream is obviously ahead of its peers.
In addition, a benign relaxation of the credit period is generally accompanied by a fast shipping speed (if the shipping speed is slow and the credit period is relaxed at the same time, then be careful)
Let's compare the inventory turnover days of each company
Predict the follow-up and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market