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Text: Cui Xiang is onched
Editor|Cui Xiang is onto the green
In the chess game of international relations, the performance of a fighter jet may affect the nerves of many countries. Recently, the news that Serbia spent 2.7 billion euros to buy 12 Rafale fighter jets from France has attracted widespread attention.
However, behind this seemingly ordinary arms purchase deal, there is an intricate geopolitical game. It is reported that the air combat capabilities of these Rafale fighters have been deliberately downgraded to meet NATO requirements.
This is reminiscent of a similar experience in Egypt, and raises a thought-provoking question: How can small countries safeguard their security interests in the cracks of the great power game? Let's lift the fog behind this international arms purchase.
In August, during France President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Serbia, the two countries formally signed an arms purchase agreement worth 2.7 billion euros, and Serbia will introduce 12 Rafale fighter jets. The importance of this deal, which is equivalent to almost 5% of Serbia's annual GDP, is evident.
However, this seemingly ordinary arms purchase was soon swept into the whirlpool of international public opinion. According to sources within diplomatic circles, the Rafale fighters ordered by Serbia are actually performance downgraded versions.
Most strikingly, these fighters are unable to launch the critical "Meteor" long-range air-to-air missile, and can only be equipped with the "Mika" medium-range air-to-air missile, which has limited performance. This information, if true, will seriously affect the combat capability of the Serbia Air Force.
Official Serbia is silent about this, but military experts are worried. A senior official of the Serbia Ministry of Defense, who did not want to be named, said privately:
"We want to get the most advanced equipment to defend our country, but the reality seems to be falling short of our expectations."
For its part, France stressed that the deal was the result of friendly consultations between the two sides and was in line with the practice of international transactions. A NATO spokesman said vaguely on an informal occasion:
"We respect the defense decisions of sovereign states, but we also want to maintain the military balance in the region."
Behind this incident is a complex geopolitical game. Serbia, as a key country in the Balkans, has always sought a balance between East and West. The introduction of Western fighters is seen as a signal that Serbia is moving closer to the West.
However, NATO does not seem to fully trust Serbia, controlling its military power by limiting fighter performance. According to people familiar with the matter, there are differences within NATO about Serbia.
Some member states advocate speeding up Serbia's Westernization process, while others worry that too much military support could affect the regional balance. The end result of the compromise was to allow Serbia to buy advanced fighters but reduce its critical combat capabilities.
This practice is not uncommon in international arms sales. Looking back at history, it is not difficult to find similar cases. In the case of Egypt, the F-16 fighters it purchased from United States were restricted from using advanced AIM-120C missiles and could only use the old AIM-7 Sparrow missiles.
This was dubbed "Egypt treatment" to ensure that the Egypt Air Force did not pose a threat to Israel. So, we can't help but ask: can this "performance dilemma" really maintain regional stability? Or is it just a means for big countries to manipulate small countries?
The limited performance of Serbia's Rafale could have far-reaching implications for the global arms market. It could prompt more countries to turn to Russia or China for military cooperation.
In fact, at the same time that Serbia signed the Rafale contract, there was news that Egypt was considering buying Chinese J-10CE fighters. This incident could intensify the regional arms race.
Neighboring countries such as Croatia could take the opportunity to strengthen their military capabilities and further escalate regional tensions. From a broader perspective, this incident reflects the fragility of the current international order.
The game between major powers not only affects the security choices of small countries, but also weakens the effectiveness of the international arms control system to a certain extent. We can't help but ask: how much more can the international arms control system play in such a situation? How can small countries protect their interests in the game of great powers?
Looking ahead, Serbia's "performance dilemma" is likely to persist for some time. Serbia may seek other avenues to compensate for its lack of air strength, such as strengthening its air defense system or developing drone technology.
At the same time, Serbia is likely to be more careful in balancing its relations with East and West and avoiding over-reliance on a single power. It is worth noting that changes in the international situation may bring new opportunities for Serbia.
If relations between the United States and Russia are eased, or the EU accelerates integration in the Balkans, Serbia may gain more strategic space. The question then becomes: how can Serbia take advantage of these possible opportunities? Will it continue to maneuver between the great powers, or will it seek a new strategic breakthrough?
Netizens are hotly discussed
This incident quickly aroused heated discussions among netizens on the Internet. Some netizens believe that Serbia's purchase of Rafale fighters this time is a wonderful move:
"Although the performance is limited, at least it is a step closer to the West. This could pave the way for Serbia's future accession to the European Union. "
Some netizens also have different views:
"Spending so much money to buy a 'castrated version' of a fighter, Serbia is spending money to buy sin! It is better to use the money on people's livelihood and improve the living standards of the people. "
Some netizens analyzed from a geopolitical point of view:
"This is a typical case of great power games. Serbia wants to please both ends, and the result may not please either. We should adhere to an independent foreign policy and not be led by the nose by major powers. "
Some military enthusiasts put forward interesting points from a technical point of view:
"In fact, the relegated 'Rafale' is not completely useless. Serbia can take advantage of this opportunity to study the design concept of advanced Western fighters and accumulate experience for independent research and development. "
Some netizens showed a sense of humor:
"Serbia has bought a 'special version' of the fighter! But then again, it's better to drive the downgraded version of the Rafale than to ride a horse, right? "
These comments reflect the keen insight of netizens into the international situation, and also reflect the concern of ordinary people about national security and foreign policy.
Serbia's "Rafale" dilemma reflects the difficult situation of small countries in the game of big powers. It is not only a military issue, but also a deep-seated problem related to national sovereignty and security.
In this era of uncertainty, how to find a balance between major powers and how to maximize national interests under limited conditions will be a long-term challenge for Serbia and many small and medium-sized countries. When we look at this seemingly simple arms procurement transaction, we can't help but ask: What is the relationship between military strength and national security in a complex international landscape?
How can small countries defend their interests in the great power game? These issues are not only about the future of Serbia, but also about the direction of the international order as a whole. Let's wait and see how Serbia will find its way out of this geopolitical puzzle.
What kind of international game is hidden behind the 2.7 billion euro arms purchase, 12 fighter planes with limited performance, and the security dilemma of a small country? Will Serbia's choice become a reference for other small countries?
Can the interests of major countries really bring about long-term peace and stability in the region? This seemingly ordinary arms purchase deal may become a classic case in international relations textbooks, which is worth pondering.