Text: Cong Cong
Edited by Cong Cong
introduction
Hey, friends, guess who's going to make a big move again?
That's right, the Fed bigwigs are going to meet again, and what they hold in their hands is a "remote control" that can shake the direction of the global economy.
Under the skies of Washington, an economic and political drama is quietly unfolding, and the eyes of the whole world are wide, just waiting to see the crucial shudder.
You say, will the Fed press the "interest rate hike" button, or will it give us a surprise?
Let's take a look at how the United States sing in this big drama.
On the eve of the Fed's decision
The Federal Reserve meeting, which was a major event in the financial world, was more lively than the New Year.
Why?
Because the monetary policy in the hands of these bigwigs is like a prescription for the global economy, with a little more and a little less, and the effect is very different.
The background of this meeting is not simple, the global economy has just climbed out of the quagmire of the epidemic, and it is panting, United States their own family is also a lot of things, inflation is like a rocket, prices are soaring, and people's wallets are as thin as bamboo poles.
Those shrewd investors in the market have long smelled the wind, and one by one, like detectives, analyzing data and speculating on intentions, they are waiting for the Fed to say a word, whether to continue to release water to raise fish, or tighten the monetary base to prevent bubbles.
Some national central banks have begun to prepare, for fear that as soon as the Fed raises interest rates, their currencies will have to depreciate.
As for the current state of the United States economy, it is really difficult to say.
The recovery is a recovery, but the "uninvited guest" of inflation has made this recovery taste different.
Let's raise interest rates, for fear that economic growth will be affected;
If you don't add it, inflation will be like a wild horse that can't be pulled away.
The Fed's decision is really difficult to ride, and one step at a time is counted.
The White House's response strategy with the U.S. military
Speaking of the White House, that's the chief director of this drama.
When it comes to economic decision-making, the bigwigs in the White House have a headache for a while.
It is necessary to consider not only the domestic people's livelihood, but also the international image, and to prevent competitors from taking advantage of the opportunity to cause trouble.
Let's talk about the U.S. military, don't look at their usual majesty in the news, in fact, there is also a difficult scripture behind it.
The economic pressure is high, and military spending naturally has to be carefully calculated, and it cannot be as lavish as before.
However, the global strategic position cannot be lost, and the deployment of US troops around the world is the "anchor of the sea" for safeguarding United States interests.
As for military action under economic pressure, the matter is delicate.
Some people say that in the economic recession, the US military may "flex its muscles" more frequently and divert domestic contradictions;
Some people also feel that the money bag is tight, and the US military has to take it easy and stop causing trouble everywhere.
In short, the possibility of such a military action, like the weather, can change and is incomprehensible.
Tensions in the global economy
As soon as the Fed meets, central banks around the world are nervous.
Why?
Because the dollar is the boss of the global currency, when the Fed coughs, the whole world has to catch a cold.
The experts of central banks of various countries stare at the screen every day, analyzing the data, for fear of missing a detail and causing their own economies to suffer.
In the international financial market, it is even more turbulent.
Investors are like gamblers, betting, withdrawing funds, hedging risks, and are very busy.
Some investors are optimistic that the Fed will show mercy;
Others are pessimistic, believing that interest rate hikes are inevitable and the market will have to go through a baptism.
This nervousness, like an infectious disease, spreads ten, spreads hundreds, and the whole market is shrouded in unease.
Let's not forget that geopolitical tensions are also a major factor affecting the global economy.
From time to time, there are some disturbances in the Middle East, and there are also undercurrents in East Asia, and these unstable factors, like the sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the global economy, may fall down at any time and take everyone off guard.
United States the interweaving of domestic and foreign affairs
The domestic economy of United States is under great pressure, and the political dynamics are also very lively.
The president and the bigwigs in Congress quarrel every day over budgets, taxes, and infrastructure.
You say that the economic pressure is high, the people are not satisfied, can the political dynamics not be complicated?
Then there is United States foreign policy, which is a big hand in the global economy.
The purpose behind the United States talking about cooperation with this country for a while and imposing sanctions with that country for a while is, to put it bluntly, to safeguard its own economic interests.
But in this way, the global economy will suffer, trade wars, science and technology wars, everyone is dizzy, I don't know if I wake up tomorrow, my export market is still there.
United States' actions in the international arena are a matter of triggering the whole body.
One moment announcing that they want to rebuild infrastructure, and the other saying that they want to strengthen alliances, these actions seem to have nothing to do with the global economy, but in fact they all hide economic interests behind them.
United States this move, other countries will have to adjust their strategies for fear of being left behind.
Speaking of this, I have to mention that the domestic and foreign affairs of the United States are intertwined, just like a complex barbecue recipe, all kinds of seasonings (interests) are put together, and the taste (result) of the roast is fragrant or smelly, and no one knows the number in their hearts.
epilogue
The next 48 hours will be like a trial waiting for the verdict for the global market, and every action may become the key to affecting the global market.
We, the people who eat melons, are sitting in front of the screen, waiting to see how this big show will be sung.
Whether it is the storm of interest rate hikes sweeping the world, or the unexpected surprise that makes everyone breathe a sigh of relief, no one knows in their hearts.
But no matter what, this big ship of the global economy, someone has to be at the helm and someone to paddle, and we hope that this ship can sail steadily forward, so as not to let the big guys bump too much.
Well, having said all that, let's wait and see how this Fed's decision-making drama will end.
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