On the afternoon of September 26, the AH share real estate sector set off a tide of price limits.
On the news side, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting, and there was a new expression in real estate, which for the first time made it clear that it was necessary to "promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize".
Regarding real estate, there are several key points:
1. To promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, the construction of commercial housing should strictly control the increment, optimize the stock, and improve the quality
3. It is necessary to respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce the interest rate of the stock of housing loans, pay close attention to improving the land, fiscal and taxation, financial and other policies, and promote the construction of a new model of real estate development.
In the case of the weak recovery of the real estate industry, the 9·26 Politburo meeting for the real estate statement is relatively informative, releasing a positive signal, which has a strong guiding significance for the next adjustment direction of the real estate industry, and a series of subsequent policies to promote the real estate market to "stop falling and stabilize" will be accelerated.
Judging from the statements of previous Politburo meetings, this Politburo meeting for the first time clearly "promotes the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", which is a very clear instruction, that is, "stop falling and stabilize".
You must know that in the first eight months of this year, the real estate data indicators are still not optimistic: from January to August, the cumulative year-on-year decline in sales area and amount was 18% and 23.6%, respectively, real estate development investment fell by 10.2%, and the prices of new and second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August fell month-on-month, and the decline is still expanding.
It is expected that more policy increases will be carried out around better promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the three Politburo meetings have emphasized the "construction of a new model of real estate development", and the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize is the basis for accelerating the construction of a new model of real estate development.
In fact, compared with the expressions of real estate in previous Politburo meetings, the requirements for real estate this time are more specific and more operable.
In addition, at the Politburo meeting, it was also clear for the first time that the "white list" project loans would be increased to support the revitalization of the stock of idle land. Combined with the latest data revealed by the person in charge of the Financial Regulatory Bureau at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 24th, up to now, commercial banks have approved more than 5,700 "white list" projects, and the amount of financing approved has reached 1.43 trillion yuan. In the future, the real estate financing coordination mechanism is expected to accelerate the implementation, and the support of financial institutions for the real estate industry will continue to expand.
The Politburo meeting called for "reducing the reserve requirement ratio and implementing a strong interest rate cut."
Previously, on the 24th, the National Council announced a RRR and interest rate cut, and at the same time announced that it would guide the loan market prime rate and deposit interest rate to fall simultaneously, and it is expected that the LPR quotation on October 20 is expected to be lowered by 20-25BP at the earliest, which will further drive the mortgage interest rate center downward.
The Politburo meeting demanded that "we should intensify the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, and pay close attention to improving land, fiscal and taxation, financial and other policies."
In terms of tax adjustment, deed tax, value-added tax, individual income tax and other types of housing-related transaction taxes and fees are likely to be adjusted to promote housing consumption, such as the deed tax exemption for individual purchases of the only house, the purchase of a second or large-scale improved housing by families, the appropriate reduction of deed tax, and the shortening of the period of VAT and individual income tax exemption for housing transactions.
In addition to incremental support, promoting the implementation of existing supportive policies such as interest rate reductions for existing loans, re-lending for affordable housing, and financing whitelists are also important policy objectives.
For the current market concern about the interest rate reduction of existing loans, the follow-up operation rules have yet to be implemented and clarified, how to reduce it, how much, and follow-up support for inter-bank mortgage transfer, etc., in order to reduce the financial burden of residents as soon as possible.
The Politburo meeting made it clear that "it is necessary to respond to the concerns of the masses and adjust the housing purchase restriction policy".
At present, the vast majority of second- and third-tier cities in the country have fully relaxed restrictions on housing transactions, and only six provinces and cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Hainan Province are still implementing housing purchase restrictions.
The breakthrough point for the comprehensive liberalization of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities is likely to be Guangzhou, followed by Shenzhen, while it is unlikely that Beijing and Shanghai will fully liberalize purchase restrictions.
For example, Beijing recently announced that it will cancel the distinction between ordinary and non-ordinary residential buildings in a timely manner, which will further reduce the tax burden on housing transactions.
The demand-side policies of second- and third-tier cities mainly focus on the incentive level of "real money" such as credit policies, trade-in policies, and housing purchase subsidy policies, such as adjusting the down payment ratio of second homes to the lower limit of 15% stipulated by the country as soon as possible, relaxing the rules for determining the number of loan limits, and increasing the housing purchase subsidies and increasing the incentives and subsidies for housing ticket placement.
In terms of supply-side policies, we will mainly focus on building a new model of real estate development, first, to promote the construction of high-quality residential buildings, optimize the rules for capacity calculation to improve the housing rate, moderately reduce the proportion of pre-sale funds for high-quality projects, encourage high-quality and high-price, and no longer implement new housing price guidance. The second is to promote the pilot sales of existing houses, such as carrying out the sales of existing houses of high-quality commercial residential plots, delaying the supporting fees for urban infrastructure construction of existing projects, increasing the development loan limit of existing house sales projects, extending the term of development loans, and reducing the interest rate of development loans.
The tone of the Politburo meeting combined with a number of monetary policy announcements at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 24th means that the real estate policy at the central level has opened up space in reducing mortgage interest rates and adjusting taxes and fees. At the policy level, it is expected that the six provinces and cities that are still implementing purchase restrictions, including first-tier cities, may usher in adjustments and cancellations, and the introduction of new local regulations to optimize stock and improve quality will be accelerated. With the support of these policies, it will help the real estate market to "stop falling and stabilize".