Dangerous! Iran is instigating again?

As tensions between Lebanon and Israel escalate, a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict appears to be spiraling out of control and expanding in scope. Against this backdrop, Iran has unexpectedly shown some kind of détente. Iran President Pezekhitsian said at the United Nations General Assembly in New York a few days ago that Iran is willing to ease tensions with Israel as long as it sees the same commitment. These remarks not only reflect Iran's concern about the current situation in the Middle East, but also reveal its high-level perception of the risk of all-out war. Once the war spreads throughout the Middle East, Iran will undoubtedly bear the brunt.

It is worth noting that Iran's move may have deeper strategic considerations. With the United States approaching a critical moment in the presidential election, Russia has apparently adopted a wait-and-see approach, hoping that Iran will become a trigger for turmoil in the Middle East, thereby distracting United States pressure in the direction of Ukraine. And Israel's Netanyahu government, out of self-interest, also tried to provoke Iran to detonate a full-scale war in the Middle East and pull United States into the water to get out of its own predicament.

At the same time, in United States politics, Trump and his Republicans also hope for an all-out war in the Middle East to drag the Democrats into the water and thus gain an advantage in the presidential election. However, the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu is based on mutual exploitation. If Trump is re-elected, he is unlikely to allow United States to remain mired in the Middle East for long, given the importance he places on United States' interests. As a result, the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu could face a new test.

In this complex network of international relations, Biden's Democratic Party has tried to avoid any move that could lead to the involvement of United States in the Middle East conflict, and has sought to maintain relative stability in the international situation to consolidate the voter base.

And Russia's strategy on the Middle East and Ukraine issues is becoming more conservative, and it seems to be waiting for deep divisions within the West before the United States election, and the West will collapse first. However, the implementation of such a strategy may backfire - the passive situation of the United States in the Middle East will lead it to take more aggressive measures in the direction of Ukraine, even at the cost of strategic adventures.

Recently, the "victory plan" mentioned by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky during his visit to the United States has attracted widespread attention. Presumably, this plan may include the withdrawal of NATO troops from the Kursk region, the official entry of NATO into Ukraine, and does not rule out the possibility of nuclear arming Ukraine. Once these speculations become reality, Russia will have to face a Ukraine fully supported by NATO, and possibly even a nuclear-armed Ukraine. This means that Russia's special military operation in Ukraine will be a complete failure, and Putin's regime will face unprecedented challenges.

Further, if Russia is forced to accept an armistice, Belarus may also break away from the Russian-Belarusian alliance because it cannot withstand enormous strategic pressure. NATO is likely to use this opportunity to continue to deplete Russia by turning eastern Ukraine into a new battlefield against Russia. This is actually a long-term plan aimed at gradually weakening Russia. Once the Russian-Belarusian alliance is dismantled, Russia's remaining nuclear deterrence capability will also be greatly reduced.

Iran is clearly aware that Russia is facing a difficult situation under strong pressure from the West, and that Putin's regime is being challenged like never before. In this case, Iran chose to show favor to United States, in fact, trying to find a glimmer of life in an unfavorable situation.

Iran is also suggesting to Russia that it will not charge for Russia in the Middle East direction. After all, Russia's failure to effectively push back against the West in the face of territorial security threats has cast doubt on Iran's ability to provide adequate support. Especially in the face of nuclear-armed United States and Israel, Iran is well aware of its vulnerability. Therefore, Iran's peace invitation is just a signal to the outside world, a strategy to protect itself.

Iran's gesture of peace seems to be a compromise, but in fact it is kicking the ball to the United States and European countries, with the intention of taking advantage of the West's psychology and taking the opportunity to put pressure on Israel and prompt United States to respond positively. Iran's real intention is to stall for time, hoping that after the results of the future United States presidential election, either side in power will be able to check Israel's Netanyahu government.

In addition, Iran also seems to want to link the development of the situation in the Middle East to the Ukraine issue. Iran hopes that Russia will launch more actions in the Ukraine direction, thereby reducing the pressure on Iran in the Middle East. At the same time, Iran believes that as long as the Biden administration continues to focus on Ukraine, its willingness to seek stability in the Middle East will increase. Therefore, Iran prefers to hold back for the time being and wait for a phased outcome of the situation in Ukraine before making plans.

Iran's peace offer is clearly in line with the Biden administration's strategic interest in stabilizing the Middle East, so the Biden administration welcomes it. Russia, on the other hand, is unhappy because it does not want to see Iran choose to back down at a critical moment. The EU is quite contradictory in this game. It does not want the Middle East to be fully stabilized and thus lose its influence in the region; We also do not want Lebanon and other countries to fall into war and affect their own security and stability.

Most Middle Eastern countries, including the Gulf states, welcomed Iran's peace offer because they also wanted to see peace and stability in the region. For its part, China's position is biased towards the vision of peace in most Middle Eastern countries, advocating advancing the peace process in the Middle East and Ukraine at the same time to buy more buffer time for all parties. This is not only in line with China's policy of crossing the river, but also has won more respect and trust in international politics. Therefore, before the United States presidential election, the possibility of a phased peace in the Middle East remains.

Iran's peace offer is essentially a response to Russia's long-standing lack of effective action in the Middle East. It also reflects Russia's passivity in the Middle East direction, which not only failed to win the trust of its allies, but only exacerbated the alienation of Belarus and Iran. Russia is running out of time, and only decisive measures in the Middle East can regain the confidence of its allies and reduce pressure on itself in the direction of Ukraine.

And this move by Iran also seems to be in exchange for United States lifting sanctions in an attempt to return to the framework of the "Iran nuclear deal". However, the United States is likely to repeat its old trick of persuading Iran to accept its terms under the guise of resuming nuclear talks. Historically, United States's unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA is likely to happen again.

Considering that Iran currently has ample stockpiles of weapons-grade enriched uranium and is expected to become a nuclear power as soon as the end of this year, restarting negotiations at this time would be tantamount to giving up important chips at a critical moment. If the United States seizes the moment and forces Iran to abandon its nuclear program, Iran's previous national security efforts will be in vain. And after United States successfully blocked the path of Iran nuclear weapons, it is very likely that they will renege on their commitments again, causing Iran to face an even greater strategic dilemma in the future. In a world where there is no regret pill to buy, Iran must carefully consider its current policy direction and avoid making irreparable mistakes because of the temptation of the moment.