After two rounds of voting, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan elected a new president, and Shigeru Ishiba, who has challenged for the presidency five times since 2008, finally got his wish. According to Japan's political system, he will replace Fumio Kishida as the next prime minister of Japan.
At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on September 27, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian clearly responded to this personnel change in Japan's political circles, saying that China does not comment on Japan's internal affairs, but hopes that the Japanese side will learn from history, adhere to the path of peaceful development, abide by the principles and consensus established in the four Sino-Japanese political documents, and establish an objective and correct understanding of China.
Lin Jian also reminded the Japanese side to pursue a positive and rational policy toward China, implement the positioning of comprehensively promoting a mutually beneficial strategic relationship, and work with China in the same direction to promote the sustained, healthy and stable development of China-Japan relations along the right track.
Lin Jian's statement was by no means untargeted. Shi Pomao led a delegation to Taiwan in August to meet with Lai Qingde, Hsiao Meiqin and others, an act that itself challenged China's bottom line on the Taiwan issue.
Shi Pomao's speech during his stay in Taiwan was even more deviant, claiming that "Chinese mainland must be made to realize that the use of force against Taiwan will not succeed" and that "today's Ukraine may be tomorrow's East Asia." Speaking realistically, all of these statements are undermining the situation in the Taiwan Strait and Sino-Japanese relations, but when he said this, he was just a congressman.
But such a Japan politician becoming prime minister can even be regarded as "good news in bad news" for China, because candidate Sanae Takaichi, who entered the second round of voting with Shigeru Ishiba, has a more extreme attitude towards China.
The politician, who almost became the first female prime minister in Japan's history, made it clear that once elected prime minister, she would visit the Yasukuni Shrine to get rid of China's dependence on China economically, and also threatened to strengthen the "economic security system" against China. This ultra-right-wing attitude was one of the reasons for Sanae Takaichi's eventual defeat, and even the LDP leaders could not stand such extreme thinking.
Although Shi Pomao met with Lai Qingde and showed his stance of "supporting Taiwan", his policy propositions are relatively stable and balanced, and he has stressed more than once that he hopes to exchange with China through defense dialogues and increase trust and dispel doubts.
Since becoming the head of the Defense Agency in 2002, Shigeru Ishiba has not visited the Yasukuni Shrine, and on the whole he is quite pragmatic. This time, his campaign slogan has nothing to do with China, but emphasizes that he will "end the general distrust of the people in the LDP" and wholeheartedly protect Japan, the localities, the rules of law and the Japanese people.
Judging from these points, Shigeru Ishiba's appointment as Japan's prime minister can at least ensure that Sino-Japanese relations will not develop in the direction of extreme deterioration. In addition, after Shi Pomao took office, I am afraid that he will not have much energy to meddle in the Taiwan issue. On the one hand, the Japanese people are very dissatisfied with the Liberal Democratic Party, which has broken out one after another "black gold scandal" and "peach scandal." "general distrust" is not alarmist; after Shi Po Shigeru came to power, a major task was to "use the knife" within the LDP.
This matter is actually not easy to do, and Ishiba Shigeru has long been a "non-mainstream" in the LDP, and his prestige is actually not high. On the other hand, when Japan will dissolve the House of Representatives next year and re-elect it, it is difficult to say whether Shigeru Ishiba will continue to be supported as this president, and the time left for him is only one year at most.
All in all, after Ishiba Shigeru is elected prime minister, the challenges facing Sino-Japanese relations may increase, but there is also a certain space for cooperation and turnaround, which will not be much different from the period of Fumio Kishida, and Sino-Japanese relations can still remain stable, and the same should be true on the Taiwan issue.
However, it is worth paying attention to whether there will be frequent changes of prime ministers in the Japan Japan political arena after the dissolution of the "factional" faction of the Liberal Democratic Party and the gradual withdrawal of powerful figures. Throughout the history of post-war Japan, there are not many prime ministers who have been in power for a long time like Shinzo Abe and Fumio Kishida, and Shigeru Ishiba, who has not led many votes, really does not look like the person who can provoke the girder in the LDP.