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Lujiazui Finance BreakfastTuesday, October 1, 2024

Lujiazui Finance BreakfastTuesday, October 1, 2024

Hot Spotlight //

1. On the last day before the holiday, A-shares recorded a "full screen", the Shanghai Composite Index directly recovered 3,300 points, the ChiNext Index, the Science and Technology Innovation 50, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 simultaneously recorded the largest increase in history, and non-ST stocks closed up across the board, and the brokerage stocks rose for the first time in history, and Changlian Technology soared 1700% on the first day of listing. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 8.06% to 3336.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 10.67%, the ChiNext Index rose 15.36%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 22.84%, the Science and Technology 50 rose 17.88%, Wind All A rose 9.71%, and Wind A500 rose 8.78%. The market turnover was 2.61 trillion yuan, a new historical volume. In September, the GEM index rose by 37.62%, a record high; The Shanghai Composite Index rose 17.39% for the month, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 26.13%.

2. Beijing has introduced 8 new policies for the property market, reducing the minimum down payment ratio for the first home loan by 15% and the second home loan to 20%. The loan amount of the provident fund for families with more than two children in Beijing will be increased by 400,000 yuan. For non-Beijing residents who buy houses within the Fifth Ring Road, the social security or individual income tax payment period is reduced from "5 years" to "3 years", outside the Fifth Ring Road to "2 years", and high-level and urgently needed talents are "1 year". Tongzhou District shall be implemented according to the unified policy of the whole city. In addition, standards for ordinary and non-ordinary housing will be abolished in a timely manner.

3. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that if the economy develops as expected, there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, with a total range of 50 basis points; The rate cut process will be gradual "over a period of time", and there is no need to rush into action. At the same time, it was re-emphasized that the overall economy remains robust. Powell also reiterated his belief that inflation will continue to move towards the Fed's 2% target, adding that economic conditions "set the ground" for further easing price pressures. After Powell's speech, traders lowered their bets on the size of the Fed's overall rate cuts.

Global Markets //

1. The three major stock indexes of United States closed slightly higher, with the Dow up 0.04% to 42330.15 points, the S&P 500 index up 0.42% to 5762.48 points; the Dow and S&P 500 both hit new closing highs, and the Nasdaq rose 0.38% to 18189.17 points. Apple rose more than 2%, and Home Depot rose more than 1%, leading the Dow. The Wind United States TAMAMA Technology Index rose 0.73%, Google rose more than 1%, and Tesla rose slightly. Most of the Chinese concept stocks rose, Tiger Brokers rose more than 16%, and JinkoSolar rose more than 15%. In September, the Dow rose 1.85%, the S&P 500 rose 2.02%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.68%. Among them, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 index recorded five consecutive monthly gains.

2. The three major European stock indexes closed down across the board, with Germany's DAX index down 0.76% at 19,324.93 points, France's CAC 40 index down 2% at 7,635.75 points, and United Kingdom's FTSE 100 index down 1.01% at 8,236.95 points.

3. Most of the major Asia-Pacific stock indexes closed down. Japan's stock market suffered a "Black Monday", with the Nikkei 225 index falling 4.8% to 37,919.55 points, the biggest one-day drop since August 5. India SENSEX30 Index fell 1.49% to 84,299.78 points. Korea's Kospi fell 2.11% to 2,593.88. Australia's S&P 200 rose 0.7% to 8,269.8 points. New Zealand's S&P 50 fell 0.27% to 12,423.82. The FTSE Singapore Straits Index rose 0.33% to 3585.29 points. The FTSE Malaysia Composite Index fell 0.67% to 1648.91 points.

4. International oil prices rose slightly, with the U.S. oil November contract up 0.16% to $68.29 per barrel, down 7.15% for the month. International oil prices rose slightly, with the U.S. oil November contract up 0.16% to $68.29 per barrel, down 7.15% for the month. Brent oil December contract rose 0.64% to $72 a barrel, down 6.41% for the month.

5、国际贵金属期货普遍收跌,COMEX黄金期货跌0.44%报2656.4美元/盎司,COMEX白银期货跌1.23%报31.425美元/盎司。 9月份,COMEX黄金期货涨5.1%,COMEX白银期货涨7.83%。

6. London base metals closed mixed, LME copper fell 1.18% to $9,865 / ton, up 6.82% monthly; LME zinc fell 0.39% to $3077.5 / ton, up 6.23% monthly; LME nickel rose 2.91% to $17,490 / ton, up 4.32% monthly; LME aluminum fell 1.57% to $2,605 / ton, up 6.46% monthly; LME tin futures rose 1.48% to $33,400 / ton, up 3.26% monthly; LME lead fell 0.52% to $2108.5 / ton, up 2.7% monthly.

7. The main contract of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed mixed, with soybean futures down 0.84% at 1056.75 cents per bushel; Corn futures rose 1.44% to 424 cents a bushel, while wheat futures rose 0.6% to 583.5 cents a bushel.

8. European bond yields were mixed, with United Kingdom's 10-year yield up 2.5 basis points at 4.001%, France's 10-year yield down 0.3 basis points at 2.914%, Germany's 10-year yield down 1 basis point at 2.121%, Italy's 10-year yield up 0.2 basis points at 3.449%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 0.1 basis points at 2.920%.

9. U.S. Treasury yields collectively closed higher, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield up 8.6 basis points at 3.651%, the 3-year U.S. Treasury yield up 7.3 basis points at 3.557%, the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield up 6 basis points at 3.565%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up 3.6 basis points at 3.786%, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield up 2 basis points at 4.122%.

10. At the end of New York, the dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.76, most of the non-US currencies fell, the euro fell 0.27% to 1.1135, the pound rose 0.03% to 1.3376, the Australian dollar rose 0.19% to 0.6913, the dollar rose 1.02% to 143.64, the dollar rose 0.6% to 0.8456, and the offshore yuan fell 252 basis points to 7.0066 against the dollar.

Lujiazui Finance BreakfastTuesday, October 1, 2024

Macro//

1. China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, the first rebound in five months, and also higher than the market expectation of 49.1. The official non-manufacturing PMI for the month was 50, compared with 50.3 in the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.4, compared with 50.1 in the previous month.

2. Caixin China's manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3 in September, down 1.1 percentage points from August and hitting the lowest value since August 2023. The Caixin China services PMI fell to 50.3 in September, the lowest since October 2023.

3. On September 30, the central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 212.1 billion yuan, with an operating interest rate of 1.50%. On the same day, 160.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, and 52 billion yuan was net invested in a single day. Due to the National Day holiday, all the funds due during the National Day holiday will be postponed to the post-holiday period, and 1,695.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will expire in the open market of the central bank in the first week after the National Day.

4. China has decided to expand the scope of visa-free countries, and from October 15, 2024 to December 31, 2025, ordinary passport holders from Portugal, Greece, Cyprus and Slovenia can enter China visa-free for no more than 15 days.

5. The China Securities Association held a regular meeting of chief economists of the securities and fund industry in the third quarter. According to the survey, more than seventy percent of chief economists expect the year-on-year growth rate of CPI to rise in the fourth quarter, and about sixty percent believe that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP, infrastructure construction and total retail sales of consumer goods will increase in the fourth quarter.

Domestic Stock Market //

1. Hong Kong stocks continued to rise, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 2.43% at 21,133.68 points, a new high since February last year, up 17.48% monthly; The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 6.7% and 33.45% monthly; The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.88% and 18.62% monthly. The weighted sectors rose collectively, with pharmaceuticals, consumption, and real estate leading the gains. The market turnover was 505.838 billion Hong Kong dollars, continuing to hit a new high. Southbound funds bought a net of HK$12.144 billion, a new high since March 25, Alibaba received a net purchase of HK$4.913 billion, and Meituan, China Mobile, and Tencent Holdings were net sellers of HK$1.416 billion, HK$969 million, and HK$893 million respectively.

2. The Shanghai Stock Exchange will carry out the system start-up connectivity test on October 7 to provide a connectivity test environment for relevant institutions to start up and verify. This test is a routine technical test. In addition, people familiar with the matter said that the Shanghai Stock Exchange will decide whether to expand the equipment, and the specific plan is still being discussed, and it needs to wait for follow-up notices.

3. While A-shares have refreshed historical records one after another, the news of the surge in the number of people handling transfers over the counter due to investors' "bank-securities transfer failure" has also spread rapidly. Many banks responded that there were indeed "transfer failures", but the increase in on-site counter business personnel may also be related to the approaching National Day holiday and the transfer limit on the day.

4. According to the latest data from China Securities Finance, as of September 27, the balance of refinancing securities in the A-share market has been cleared. This means that the refinancing of securities in the market stock has been fully closed.

5. At the same time as the "rise" of A-shares, a number of listed companies have also successively disclosed announcements related to shareholder reductions. According to incomplete statistics, from September 26 to noon on September 30, more than 80 A-share companies have disclosed the results of shareholders' recent shareholding reductions or future shareholding reduction plans.

6. After a lapse of 3 months, the A-share IPO will be accepted and welcomed. On September 30, the Science and Technology Innovation Board newly accepted the IPO application of Xinxin shares, and the Beijing Stock Exchange newly accepted the listing applications of Barrance and Yatu High-tech. Xinxin Co., Ltd. chose the fourth set of standards to apply for listing, and plans to raise 4.8 billion yuan, of which 4.3 billion yuan will be used for the third phase of the 12-inch integrated circuit manufacturing production line.

7. It is reported on the Internet that more than 1.4 million customers are waiting in line to open an account in the background audit of China Securities Construction Investment. In this regard, the relevant person in charge of China Securities Construction Investment said that the information is seriously inconsistent with the facts.

8. TCL Zhonghuan announced that it would terminate the repurchase of the company's shares to maintain a healthy state of cash flow. The company originally planned to repurchase shares with 500 million to 1 billion yuan, and has repurchased 5 million shares so far, costing about 62.56 million yuan.

9. China's Taiwan Weighted Index closed down 2.62% at 22224.54 points, down 0.2% in September. MediaTek fell nearly 7%, and TSMC, Delta and Quanta fell more than 4%.

10. According to the documents of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange: JD Industry submitted a listing application, with Bank of America Securities, Goldman Sachs, Haitong International, and CITIC Securities as joint sponsors.

Lujiazui Finance BreakfastTuesday, October 1, 2024

Finance//

1. The hot stock market has driven the turnover of stock ETFs to increase hugely, with 6 equity ETFs having a turnover of more than 10 billion yuan on Monday, Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 ETF leading the market with a record turnover of 25.799 billion yuan, and E Fund ChiNext ETF, ChinaAMC Kechuang 50 ETF, CSI 1000 ETF and CSI 500 ETF have also broken the single-day trading records since their establishment.

2. The State Administration of Financial Supervision has strengthened the pertinence and effectiveness of the supervision of five types of non-banking institutions, including financial leasing companies, consumer finance companies and auto finance companies, and made appropriate adjustments to the existing regulations on corporate governance, related party transactions and capital management, so as to allow the establishment of a simple and effective corporate governance mechanism.

3. The regulatory authorities recently issued a notice to all securities and fund operating institutions, requiring them to take the initiative to check the capacity redundancy of various trading networks, trading systems and trading equipment during the National Day, sort out the capacity management risk points and take targeted measures.

4. The scale of domestic ETFs exceeded 3 trillion yuan for the first time. As of September 27, the scale of domestic ETFs was 3.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 47% from the beginning of the year, the scale of Shanghai ETFs was 2.4 trillion yuan, and the scale of equity ETFs (stocks + cross-border) was 2.11 trillion yuan. Among them, the CSI 300 index fund exceeded 1 trillion.

5. The national team Central Huijin ushered in personnel changes! Liu Jiawang served as the vice chairman and executive director of Central Huijin Company, and was appointed as the general manager; Comrade Liao Qiang served as the executive director of Central Huijin and was appointed as the deputy general manager.

6. According to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the State Supervision Commission, Li Quan, former secretary of the Party committee and chairman of Xinhua Insurance, seriously violated discipline and law and was expelled from the party, and his suspected crime was transferred to the procuratorate for review and prosecution in accordance with the law. This is the first official disclosure that Li Quan was investigated.

7. The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the establishment of Caixin Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, which is 100% owned by Caixin Securities.

8. Deng Bin, chief investment officer of Ping An Group, submitted his resignation to the company due to personal and family reasons, and will continue to serve until the expiration of the contract in December 2024. Guo Shibang, director of the investment committee of Ping An Group, will undertake the relevant work of Deng Bin.

Housing//

1. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly held a video conference on the promotion of the national housing delivery work, requiring strong and effective measures to be taken to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize as soon as possible. Intensify the checking, pushing, repair of problematic projects, and loan delivery of "whitelist" projects, and expand the coverage of "whitelist".

2. According to the China Index Research Institute, from January to September, the total sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises were 2,969.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.8%, and the decline was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. In September, the sales of TOP100 real estate companies decreased by 38.81% year-on-year and 2.20% month-on-month.

3. Henan Province has introduced 20 new measures for the property market, including: the full cancellation of purchase restrictions, the cancellation of the restrictions on the transfer of commercial housing, and the cancellation of ordinary and non-ordinary residential standards; In Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, and Jiyuan demonstration zones, we will accelerate the pilot sales of existing houses; The decommissioning period exceeds 18 months, and new residential land is suspended.

4. Guangdong Branch of the Central Bank: Since September 30, in Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Shantou, Foshan, Shaoguan, Heyuan, Meizhou, Huizhou, Shanwei, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Yangjiang, Zhanjiang, Maoming, Zhaoqing, Qingyuan, Chaozhou, Jieyang, Yunfu a total of 20 cities to buy houses, the mortgage no longer distinguishes between the first and second houses, and the minimum down payment ratio is unified at 15%.

5. Wuhan property market new policy: from October 1 to December 31, the purchase of a new house is determined according to the first house, and the first house can be fully subsidized with the purchase deed tax; the abolition of standards for ordinary and non-ordinary housing; Explore "trade-in" old home loan balances directly converted into new home loans.

6. Shanghai Lingang New Area: On the basis of the implementation of the existing housing purchase restriction policy, specific talents can purchase one additional housing unit in the industry-city integration area of the Lingang New Area, and optimize the recognition of the number of housing units in personal housing loans.

7. Xiamen: Completely cancel the restriction on housing sales; The minimum down payment ratio for the first and second homes is 15%; The number of housing units shall be determined according to the jurisdiction of the district where the housing to be purchased is located.

8. Chongqing: Commercial personal housing loans no longer distinguish between the first and second houses, and the minimum down payment ratio is not less than 15%, which will be implemented from September 30.

9. Zhuzhou, Hunan: Support group purchase of new commercial housing, one-time purchase of 10 sets or more of the house price can be reduced by 20%, group purchase of 100 sets or more can be negotiated by the buyer and seller to determine the house price; Implement the "room ticket" placement.

10. In the fourth round of this year, Beijing plans to supply 9 commercial residential land, with a land area of about 39 hectares and a construction scale of about 960,000 square meters, including 4 in Chaoyang District, 3 in Fengtai District, and 1 in Dongcheng District and Economic and Technological Development Zone.

11. Chengdu High-tech Zone: For the purchase of new residential buildings, each set of 90 square meters and below will be subsidized with 20,000 yuan of consumption vouchers, 90 square meters to 144 square meters (inclusive) will be subsidized with 40,000 yuan of consumption vouchers, and 60,000 yuan of consumption vouchers will be subsidized above 144 square meters.

12. New Deal for Fujian Property Market: From October 1, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the second housing in nine cities and one district of the province will be uniformly reduced from 25% to 15%, and the first and second housing will no longer be distinguished; Implement the policy of reducing the interest rate of the stock of housing loans, guide commercial banks to uniformly implement batch adjustment of the interest rate of eligible stock housing loans before October 31, and encourage the corporate banks in the province to implement the policy as soon as possible and complete the batch adjustment work in advance; Support cities to implement policies to cancel restrictive measures in areas such as housing purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price restrictions, and those that have been canceled should be fully implemented, and those that have not been canceled should be assessed and due diligence should be adjusted.

Industry//

1. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council recently signed a decree of the State Council promulgating the Regulations on the Management of Network Data Security, which will come into force on January 1, 2025.

2. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, in the first three quarters, it is estimated that the number of domestic tourists will be 4.29 billion and the tourism expenditure will be 4.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8% and 17.1% year-on-year respectively, close to the peak level in 2019; It is estimated that the number of inbound tourists will be 95 million, a year-on-year increase of 55.4%, and recover to 93.4% of the same period in 2019.

3. Minister of Industry and Information Technology Jin Zhuanglong met with Minister of Industry and Trade of Viet Nam Nguyen Hong Yan, and the two sides exchanged views on strengthening cooperation in the industrial field. Nguyen Hong Dien said that he looks forward to strengthening exchanges and cooperation with China in the fields of automobiles, raw materials, and light industry.

4. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, as of 0:00 on September 29, 5.11 million consumers of household appliances were traded-in, and 7.11 million units of 8 categories of household appliances were purchased, enjoying 6.403 billion yuan of central subsidies, driving sales of more than 33.5 billion yuan.

5. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: From January to August, the Internet business revenue of Internet enterprises above designated size was 117.1 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points lower than that from January to July, and the total profit was 100.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, and the decline rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than that from January to July.

6. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first eight months, the mainland's software business revenue was 8,549.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and the growth rate was the same as that in the first seven months; The total profit of the software industry was 1,022.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%.

7. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index of China's auto dealers in September was 54%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year and 2.2 percentage points month-on-month. It is expected that the terminal sales of passenger cars in September will be about 2.1 million units, which will achieve both year-on-year and month-on-month growth; Terminal sales in October are expected to be basically the same as in September.

8. The 2024 World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit will be held in Wuzhen, China from November 19 to 22. The Wuzhen Summit will focus on artificial intelligence in an all-round way.

9. Beijing: Strive to achieve a low-altitude economic industry scale of 100 billion yuan in three years; Promote the application of normalized low-altitude logistics and distribution in Yanqing, Pinggu, Miyun, Fangshan and other qualified areas, and explore the establishment of low-altitude passenger routes between Daxing Airport and Xiong'an New Area.

10. Guangdong Province has issued an action plan to accelerate the cultivation and development of future industries, with the goal of forming a number of world-leading future industrial clusters in the fields of future networks, general intelligence, and life and health by 2035.

11. The fuel surcharge for domestic routes will be significantly reduced from October 5, with a fuel surcharge of 10 yuan per passenger for routes of 800 kilometers and below, and 20 yuan for routes above 800 kilometers, which will be reduced by 20 yuan and 30 yuan respectively.

12. Huawei announced that according to the company's rotating chairman system, Meng Wanzhou will be the rotating chairman of the board of directors from October 1, 2024 ~ March 31, 2025.

Overseas//

1. Bostic, a member of the Federal Reserve's 2024 FOMC and president of the Atlanta Fed in United States, recently said that if the United States labor market is weak, he will be open to another 50 basis point rate cut.

2. Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve said that the Fed is cutting interest rates because the economy has normalized; Interest rate cuts are a "top priority"; The Fed cannot wait until the job market is weak before acting; There will be many rate cuts; The rate cut process will last for a year or more.

3. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the ECB is more optimistic that inflation can be brought under control and will take this into account in the October interest rate decision. It was her strongest hint to date that officials may be gaining momentum in favor of rate cuts.

4. Germany's preliminary CPI rose 1.6% year-on-year in September, with an expected increase of 1.7% and a final value of 1.9% in August; Month-on-month, the forecast was flat, and the final value fell by 0.1% in August.

5. United Kingdom's final GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the expected and preliminary value of 0.6%, and the first quarter increased by 0.7%. Market confidence is currently declining and is expected to fall further to 0.3% per quarter in the future.

6. According to data from Statistics Korea, semiconductor inventories fell by 42.6% year-on-year in August, the fastest rate of destocking since 2009. Chip production and shipments increased by 10.3% and 16.1% respectively in the month.

7. Statistics Korea released statistics showing that the proportion of individual businesses in total employment has dropped to less than 20%, the first time since 1963 that relevant statistics were conducted.

International Stock Market //

1. Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, Tiger Brokers rose more than 16%, JinkoSolar rose more than 15%, Dingdong Grocery rose about 12%, Good Future rose more than 9%, Wuxin Technology rose more than 7%, Gaotu Group rose about 6%, Douyu and Dada Group rose about 5%, New Oriental and Century Internet rose about 3%; In terms of declines, Bit Deer fell more than 7%, Canaan Technology and Xiaopeng Motors fell more than 4%, and Trip.com Group fell about 3%.

2. Preliminary data from the Korea Exchange showed that overseas investors sold a net 7.91 trillion won worth of shares in September, the largest monthly sell-off since May 2021.

3. Epic Games sued Google again, accusing it of partnering with Samsung Electronics to block rival app stores by default on mobile devices sold globally.

4. Google announced plans to invest $1 billion to build an advanced data center in Thailand to strengthen its cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure in Southeast Asia.

5. Hyundai Motor said that as of September this year, the company's cumulative automobile production exceeded 100 million units, and the three best-selling cars were Elantra (15.37 million units), Accent (10.25 million units), and Sonata (9.48 million units).

6. According to people familiar with the matter, SoftBank Group's Vision Fund will invest $500 million in the latest round of financing for artificial intelligence company OpenAI.

Commodity//

1. Ministry of Commerce: In 2025, the total import tariff quota for sugar will be 1.945 million tons, of which 70% will be state-owned trade tariff quotas; The total import tariff quota for wool is 287,000 tons, and the total import tariff quota for wool tops is 80,000 tons.

2. According to the China Federation of Things, the PMI of the steel industry in September was 49%, up 8.6 percentage points month-on-month, ending the month-on-month decline for three consecutive months. It is expected that in October, market demand will continue to pick up, steel production will continue to rise, and raw material and steel prices may rise.

3. OPEC+ oil producers will meet this week to assess the global market situation and prepare for the resumption of production, which has been postponed. Several OPEC+ representatives said there were no plans to adjust any options at Wednesday's online meeting.

4. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), in July, global refined copper production was 2.35 million tons, consumption was 2.26 million tons, and the refined copper market was oversupplied by 91,000 tons, and in June it was oversupply of 113,000 tons.

5. According to the latest quotation of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, on September 30, the price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 80 yuan to 75,700 yuan/ton, a new high for more than 1 month, and rose for 2 consecutive days.

6. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index fell 1.23% to 2,084 points, ending a seven-day winning streak.

Bond//

1. [Bond Market Overview] On the last trading day of September, the trend of bonds diverged, the interbank spot bonds strengthened, and the yield of 3-30 year treasury bond active bonds fell by more than 8bp. Treasury bond futures mostly closed lower, and the main 30-year contract fell 0.53%. The "Second Perpetual Bond" was actively traded, and the yield of "24 Bank of Communications Perpetual Bond 01BC" fell by 7bp.

2. The central bank announced that in order to increase the counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the open market treasury bond trading operation was carried out in September, and the face value of the net purchase of bonds in the whole month was 200 billion yuan.

3. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed up 2.49%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal Rights Index rose 3.08%. More than ninety percent of the convertible bonds rose, Nuotai convertible bonds rose by the limit, Weilong convertible bonds, and Kelan convertible bonds rose by 19.93% and 14.57% respectively; Huicheng convertible bonds and Tianchuang convertible bonds fell 2.3% and 2.29% respectively.

4. The Ministry of Finance disclosed the relevant arrangements for the issuance of treasury bonds in the fourth quarter, and plans to continue to issue 6 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. Among them, 4 are planned to be issued in October, including 1 20-year variety, 2 30-year varieties and 1 50-year variety; In November, it is planned to issue 2 varieties, including 1 20-year variety and 1 30-year variety.

5. According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, in August, the country issued 1,209.1 billion yuan of local government bonds, of which 947.4 billion yuan of new bonds were issued and 261.7 billion yuan of refinancing bonds were issued. As of the end of August, the balance of local government debt across the country was 436297 billion yuan.

6. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange decided to give Evergrande Real Estate the disposition of not accepting the bond issuance and listing application documents or listing transfer application documents submitted for three years. Xu Jiayin, then chairman and actual controller of Evergrande Real Estate, and Xia Haijun, then vice chairman of the board of directors and president of China Evergrande Group, were publicly determined to be unsuitable for life to serve as directors, supervisors and senior executives of bond issuers.

7. SSE: From October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025, the issuance and registration fees for all bonds will continue to be reduced in full, and the interest payment and redemption service rates for all bonds will be reduced by 50%.

8. The Bank of Japan announced a reduction in government bond purchases in the third quarter, with a monthly cut of 400 billion yen per month, bringing the total monthly purchases from October to December to about 4.9 trillion yen.

Foreign exchange//

1. On Monday, the onshore yuan closed at 7.0156 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 4 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.0215 in the night, up 725 basis points in September. The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0074, an increase of 27 basis points, and a cumulative increase of 1,050 basis points in September.

2. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the Report on RMB Internationalization (2024), pointing out that in the next stage, it will focus on trade and investment facilitation on the basis of market-driven and independent choices of enterprises, and steadily and steadily promote the internationalization of RMB. On the basis of "local currency priority", we will strengthen the coordination between domestic and foreign currencies. Make good use of mechanisms such as currency swaps and RMB clearing arrangements to provide stable RMB liquidity for the offshore market. Improve the long-term mechanism for the issuance of overseas sovereign bonds, and increase the supply of RMB safe assets.

3. According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of June, the balance of the mainland's full-caliber external debt (including domestic and foreign currencies) was US$2,545.3 billion, an increase of US$32.7 billion from the end of March, and a rebound for three consecutive quarters. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange expects that it is unlikely that the mainland's external debt will continue to deleverage in the fourth quarter, and the scale of external debt is expected to remain stable.

4. According to the data of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, at the end of June, the mainland's external financial assets were US$9,792.9 billion, external liabilities were US$6,804.6 billion, and net external assets were US$2,988.3 billion. Among the external financial assets, direct investment assets were US$3,023.9 billion, and securities investment assets were US$1,235.3 billion. Among the external liabilities, the direct investment liabilities were US$3,487.7 billion and the securities investment liabilities were US$1,857.7 billion.

5. According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in the second quarter, the mainland had a current account surplus of $54.5 billion and a capital and financial account deficit of $48.4 billion. In the first half of the year, the mainland had a current account surplus of $93.7 billion and a capital and financial account deficit of $122.8 billion.

6. The Ministry of Finance of Japan announced that from August 29 to September 26, the amount of currency intervention in Japan will be 0 yen.

Important Economic Agenda //

Lujiazui Finance BreakfastTuesday, October 1, 2024

Review of historical articles

"The Central Bank's Official Announcement Series of King Bombs"

"The Central Bank's Big Move Towards Currency, Real Estate Stocks and Bonds Exchange"

Suddenly! Global sprint interest rate cuts" "Gold bull market, how long can it last? 》

Lujiazui Finance BreakfastTuesday, October 1, 2024

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Lujiazui Finance BreakfastTuesday, October 1, 2024