On September 10 this year, Feng Xiao, co-head of CLSA Hong Kong and China Industrial Research, said that passenger car sales in Chinese mainland in 2024 are expected to be the same as last year.
However, as consumer preferences change, the market penetration of trams in the mainland is expected to reach 60% by 2025.
This means that in the near future, most of the cars you see on the road will probably no longer need a gearbox.
Under such a trend, what should ZF, Aisin, the former transmission giants, do?
The answer, perhaps many people did not expect!
01 The current state of the transmission market
When it comes to this issue, many people may not realize that in fact, the gearbox market has been "stormy" since 2022.
Take Aisin as an example, the annual profit in 2022 will only be 21.6 billion yuan, compared with 46 billion yuan in 2021, which is simply halved!
Coincidentally, ZF, another major transmission giant in the world, has encountered a similar dilemma.
At the end of the day, times have changed!
In the past, cars had to be equipped with a gearbox, and that was because the engine speed was difficult to control precisely, and it had to rely on this thing to "assist".
For example, at low speeds, the internal combustion engine does not have enough torque to provide enough power to start the vehicle.
At this point, the gearbox is able to change the gear ratio to provide enough torque for a smooth start.
At high speeds, the transmission can reduce engine speed by upshifting, improving fuel efficiency.
Considering its "all-rounder", it was even hailed as one of the "three major pieces" of the car in the era of oil cars!
But the problem is that in the era of new energy vehicles, the motor is stronger than the gearbox:
In terms of precise control, the motor can maintain stable torque at almost all speeds;
In terms of energy utilization, the motor can even be as high as 95%;
In terms of stability, the motor can also beat the gearbox...
Considering this situation, the gearbox market naturally began to shrink.
However, it is not realistic to say that new energy vehicles "do not have a gearbox at all"!
02 Do new energy vehicles really need a gearbox?
Although it is true that electric vehicles do not need a gearbox in most cases, it is not accurate to say that new energy vehicles "do not need a gearbox at all".
Because although the motor is efficient, in some special application scenarios, the role of the gearbox can still not be ignored.
High-end electric vehicles such as the Porsche Taycan and Audi e-tron GT are equipped with a two-speed gearbox to optimise acceleration and high-speed performance.
To put it bluntly, a multi-speed gearbox can provide better torque output at lower speeds; At high speeds, it can be switched to a higher gear to improve efficiency.
These vehicles often need to cope with high loads and long distances, and motors alone may not provide sufficient traction or efficiency.
That's where the value of a multi-speed gearbox comes in!
By intelligently switching the power delivery between the electric motor and the combustion engine, the gearbox helps these vehicles to achieve optimal energy efficiency in different operating conditions.
In general, in the new energy era, the importance of the gearbox may have decreased, but it has not completely withdrawn from the stage of history, but has participated in it in a completely new way.
03 What can these giants do?
It is also because of this change that the current transmission giant has begun to exert force in three directions.
ZF and Aisin, for example, have already begun to invest in integrated electric drive systems.
This system integrates an electric motor, inverter, and controller to increase the efficiency of the electric vehicle and reduce the weight of the vehicle.
Unlike passenger cars, commercial vehicles operate under high loads and over long distances, so transmissions are still important.
For example, ZF has launched a drivetrain specifically for heavy-duty electric vehicles to help these large-tonnage vehicles operate efficiently in a variety of complex environments.
As the automotive industry moves towards autonomous driving, the future of smart electric vehicles will not only require more efficient drive systems, but also integrated intelligently controlled motors and transmission systems.
Companies such as ZF and Aisin are already working on intelligent driver assistance systems and are partnering with technology companies to further explore this market.
All in all, although the role of the gearbox in the tram has been weakened, it still plays a pivotal role in many areas.
In addition, these giants are also making positive adjustments, and in the field of new energy vehicles, maybe we can still see them.