Today in Sasha's history.
Author: Sasha
This article was originally written by Sasha and is not allowed to be reproduced by any media
How many people can the earth really hold? 12 October 1999: World 6 Billion Day established by the United Nations.
As early as 1999, the number of human beings had reached 6 billion.
And today, in 2023, the Earth's population has reached 8.2 billion. Scientists estimate that by 2050, the Earth's population will reach 9.7 billion, and by 2080 it will reach 10.4 billion.
So, how many people can the earth really hold?
Many people believe that the main reason why the earth can feed people is how much food it can produce.
More than 10 years ago, the total amount of food produced on the planet was enough to feed 10 billion people. The reason why there is a problem of famine in third world countries such as Africa is mainly due to the problem of food distribution, not the lack of food for human beings.
In 2023, the global production of cereals alone will be 3 billion tonnes. In other words, on average, each earthling can be allocated 375 kilograms, an average of more than 1 kilogram per day, and there is no problem at all to eat a full stomach.
Taking China as an example, the mainland's grain output in 2023 will be as high as 1,390.8 billion catties, with a per capita grain output of 493 kilograms.
According to the United Nations, an average of 400 kilograms of food per person per year can maintain basic health even if there is a severe shortage of non-staple foods.
In other words, there is currently a surplus of global food production. In the case of developed countries, the biggest problem is not food shortage, but food waste.
United States scientists believe that as much as 30 to 40 percent of the food produced in the United States is wasted without being eaten at all. Globally, another 1.3 billion tonnes of food are wasted every year.
However, this is not to say that the planet's food production is worry-free.
Sixty percent of the Earth's population is supplied with food and energy from three crops: rice, corn and wheat, which are quite simple.
If people on the planet were to emphasize healthy and balanced diets like the developed countries, 3 billion people would not be able to meet the target.
Many people do not understand why Russia exported a lot of grain during the Tsarist period, but imported a lot of grain during the Soviet period?
This is not to say that the grain production of the Soviet Union was low, in fact, there was still progress compared to the period of Tsarist Russia, after all, there was a big gap in the level of science and technology.
The Soviet Union needed to import a large amount of grain because of the changes in the diet of the Soviet people.
During the Tsarist period, it was good for Russians to be able to eat white bread, but they could only eat a small amount of meat, milk and eggs.
But the Soviet period was different, and the common people had a high demand for meat.
In 1970 compared to 1985, the per capita annual consumption of bread in the USSR decreased from 143 kg to 133 kg, and the consumption of potatoes from 124 kg to 104 kg. Food consumption seems to be less, but the consumption of non-staple foods is high: meat and meat products increased from 48 kg to 62 kg, fish consumption from 15.4 kg to 18 kg, eggs from 159 to 260, milk and dairy products from 307 kg to 325 kg, vegetables from 82 kg to 102 kg, and fruit consumption from 35 kg to 48 kg.
In order to meet the increased dietary requirements of the Soviet people, the Soviet Union had to import large quantities of grain, mainly as fodder.
It's the same thing.
If everyone consumes food according to the standards of United States and other developed countries, in principle, it is a bottomless pit, and no amount is enough.
And, with the emission of greenhouse gases, the nutrient content of crops changes.
According to a Harvard University study, when major crops are exposed to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations predicted in 2050, they lose 10% of their zinc, 5% of their iron, and 8% of their protein, and this change in nutrient composition will ultimately affect people's nutritional intake.
Even so, there is no problem with food production to sustain the planet's 10 billion people, and even 15 billion people could be fed if the bar is lowered.
If only the most basic subsistence were maintained, the planet's extreme food production could sustain 37 billion people.
Then, the food problem is still easy to say, and the key lies in how many people the earth's ecology can bear.
The answer is very pessimistic.
In the movie "The Matrix," Smith says to Morpheus: We wanted to classify you humans as mammals, but we didn't. We have found that any animal instinctively adapts to its natural environment and becomes one with it without destroying it. Only you humans will wantonly destroy the environment, just like bacteria and viruses. You almost destroyed the Earth, and we AI are the saviors of the Earth.
There is some truth to this.
In the movie "The Day the Earth Stood Still", Quirrell Reeves, as an alien ambassador, said that there are very few planets in the universe that have complex ecosystems that can give birth to intelligent beings. And humanity is devastating and will eventually destroy the planet completely. We cannot lead to the destruction of an entire planet because of the recklessness of one creature on Earth. If you want to save the planet, you have to destroy humanity.
Everyone knows that the earth's ecological environment has been seriously damaged.
In the case of Japan, a developed country, the economic boom caused irreversible and terrible damage to the natural environment, and it has not recovered for 50 years after investing heavily in recovery.
For example, the Minamata disease incident in Japan, which is the mercury poisoning incident caused by the pollution of industrial wastewater discharge.
The symptoms of the victim are slurred speech, staggering, facial dementia, paralysis of the hands and feet, sensory disturbances, loss of vision, tremors, deformity of the hands and feet, and severe nervous disorders, or sleepiness, or excitement, and the body bends and screams until death.
The most frightening thing is that Minamata disease can be inherited, and many seemingly normal next generation of Japan children have motor and language disabilities.
Pessimistic ecological scientists believe that the planet's largest human carrying capacity is 3.5 billion, and any more of them would disrupt the ecological balance.
In other words, the current population of 8 billion has seriously damaged the earth's environment.
If all human beings live in the same high material conditions as the developed countries, then the global population needs 7 earths to carry it.
Taking China as an example, in the book "China's Agriculture: Problems· Potential· Roads · Benefits" published in 1993, a nine-level revision method of grain production potential was proposed, which calculated the population carrying capacity of nine factors: light, temperature, water resources, irrigation conditions, soil, fertilizer, technology, economy, and society. The results show that China's grain production has great potential, the first plan potential can reach 30% ~ 46%, the second plan potential is 22% ~ 38%, the grain output can reach about 640 million tons (664 million tons in 2019), China's land can carry 1.6 billion people, but the ecological pressure is huge.
Even optimistic ecologists believe that the earth's water and land resources can maintain a virtuous cycle of 10 billion to 16 billion at most.
If the ecological environment is completely destroyed after the population explosion increases, it can lead to vicious changes that cannot be reversed.
In the movie "Interstellar", the deterioration of the earth's ecological environment has led to the terrible and irreversible blight of plants. With the death of the earth's plants, the earth's oxygen content will gradually decrease, and human beings will eventually have difficulty breathing, and they will completely extinct.
To put it simply, without significant progress in science and technology, if we want to maintain the earth's intact ecological environment and a relatively high standard of human life, the world can only accommodate 6 billion people.
If we want to maintain a well-off and relatively healthy environment for human beings, then the earth can accommodate 11 billion people.
In other words, by 2080, the peak of the Earth's population will be reached.
As you know, if the earth's ecological environment is really destroyed and mankind perishes, which people will be hung up in the end?
It's India.
See the figure for the reasons.
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