During the 7-day National Day holiday, the heat of the stock market does not subside, and the heat is too high to make many people start to worry.
Just when everyone was beating a little drum in their hearts, the official announced that a blockbuster meeting would be held on October 8, which is an iron determination to revive the stock market? China's economy has skyrocketed? There are too many mysteries in this, let's try to interpret them for your reference.
Before the National Day, the stock market rose sharply. However, the National Day holiday is as long as 7 days, which is not a big negative for the stock market, and many people have time to think and start calculating, and the more they calculate, the more hesitant they become, and even begin to be afraid.
The stock market is a capital market, but also a psychological market, the emphasis is on a drum, but the National Day holiday is too long, everyone can only do the mouth cannon can not be practiced and unable to make money, after a long time, the mind will inevitably cool down.
In addition, the hostile forces that have mixed into our crowd are also very strong, constantly stirring up, and there are so-called experts who are also pouring cold water on China as far away as Japan, and it is difficult for ordinary people to tell the difference.
In the past few years, China's stock market has been bearish for too long, and many people are afraid of it.
On the sixth day of the long holiday, when the direction of public opinion changed somewhat, and when the market was about to reopen in two days, the official announced an important meeting.
On October 6, the Financial Associated Press reported that the Information Office of the State Council will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on October 8, 2024.
At the press conference, Zheng Shajie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, and Liu Sushe, Zhao Chenxin, Li Chunlin, and Zheng Bei, deputy directors of the National Development and Reform Commission, will be invited to introduce the relevant situation of "systematically implementing a package of incremental policies, solidly promoting the optimization of the economic upward structure, and the continuous improvement of the development trend", and answer questions from reporters.
Note that there are several very important keywords in the theme of this meeting: "package of incremental policies", "economic upward structure is improving", and "development trend continues to improve", which is focused on China's economy as a whole, and the pattern is very large, and the signal is also very strong.
The market is boiling, and some people even shouted the slogan that 10,000 points in the stock market is not a dream.
Many people say that there are 4 very important points to watch at this press conference.
1. The meeting was deliberately held at the time of the opening of the market on the first day after the holiday, and the intention of promoting the continuous development of the stock market was obvious.
2. The effect of the new financial policy on September 24 is obvious, and at this time, we will continue to make efforts to implement economic policies, which can achieve twice the result with half the effort, and the signal of a new round of take-off of China's economy is very obvious.
3. Many experts say that after the monetary policy is forced, it is more important that the economic and fiscal policies should also be forced, and this time it has finally come.
4. Many people have noticed that the level of this meeting is also very high, and the director of the National Development and Reform Commission personally came out, plus 4 deputy directors, which means that there will inevitably be major economic and fiscal policies.
Such a drastic thing, held on the first day after the National Day, it is estimated that the National Development and Reform Commission did not have a holiday during the holiday, and it was studied overtime, and the importance is self-evident.
Could this be a signal of a major shift in China's economy?
In the past few days of the National Day, many smart people have said that the chassis of the stock market is the economy, if the economy can't get up, the stock market is a skin, and it can't last at all.
In the past few days, many people are worried, the reason is that we have been in the doldrums for too long, and the depression has been too long, and it is hard for everyone to believe that the economic problems that have accumulated for several years can be solved in one day?
This brings us to a central question: Why did China's economy do it all at once? Why now?
The most important foundation for this is that our economic transformation is basically completed.
As we all know, in the first 40 years, China's economy was mainly driven by investment and exports, and the focus of investment was on urban construction and real estate, rather than industry.
Recently, we have talked several times that the supply-side reform and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry that began in 2015 were basically completed around 2019, and a new round of capacity expansion began.
The epidemic in 2020 unexpectedly interrupted this process, and as a blessing in disguise, the global production capacity was seriously damaged, and we managed to obtain a large number of orders, but completed this round of capacity expansion during the epidemic.
After the epidemic in 2023, we have become the only deflationary country among the world's largest economies, because the production capacity is too strong.
Therefore, in 2023, the main focus of our economy is three aspects: to solve the problems on the demand side (sluggish domestic demand and exports) on the one hand, to resolve risks such as local bonds and real estate on the other hand, and to continue to fight against the US dollar interest rate hike and financial war.
In 2024, many problems have been straightened out, risks have been resolved, and it is time to go all out, just wait for the dollar to cut interest rates.
Why wait for the dollar to cut interest rates? Can't we do it ourselves?
The US dollar interest rate cut is not only a signal of global easing, but more importantly, it represents that the United States economy cannot bear it, and at this time we are fully exerting our strength, on the one hand, there is a lot less external interference, on the other hand, we can break through a lot of shackles in one fell swoop.
This is the best time to do the right thing, so that you can be sure of success.
Now, let's hold our breath and take a good look at what the October 8 meeting will be.