International financial markets already knew: October 8

【Information Guide】

• The average daily trading volume of offshore yuan futures surged to a record high of 4,567 contracts in September

• According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing: the global manufacturing PMI was 48.8% in September

• United States nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 seasonally adjusted in September, with an expected increase of 140,000

• The Bank of Japan's quarterly regional report raised the assessment of 2 of Japan's 9 regions

【Market Information】

•As of the end of September 2024, the size of China's foreign exchange reserves was US$3,316.4 billion, an increase of US$28.2 billion, or 0.86%, from the end of August.

•According to a recent report released by the People's Bank of China, as of the end of August 2024, the People's Bank of China has signed bilateral local currency swap agreements with the central banks or monetary authorities of 42 countries and regions, of which 29 are valid, with a swap scale of more than 4.1 trillion yuan.

• According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group in United States, the average daily volume of offshore yuan futures soared to a record high of 4,567 contracts in September; The average daily nominal turnover of offshore renminbi in September rose 118% year-on-year to US$457 million, a record high.

• According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI was 48.8% in September, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, hovering around 49% for three consecutive months. In terms of sub-regions, Asia's manufacturing PMI ended its downward trend for two consecutive months, rose slightly from the previous month, and continued to remain above 50%; Africa's manufacturing PMI rose from the previous month, rising to more than 50%; The manufacturing PMI in the Americas rose slightly from the previous month, but remained below 50%; The European manufacturing PMI fell from the previous month and continued to be below 50%.

• United States nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 seasonally adjusted in September, with an expected increase of 140,000 and a revised revision from 142,000 to 159,000 previously. The unemployment rate in United States was 4.1% in September, the lowest since June 2024, with an expectation of 4.2% and a previous value of 4.2%. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that the number of new nonfarm jobs in July was revised to 144,000 from 89,000; the number of new nonfarm jobs in August was revised to 159,000 from 142,000.

• The Federal Reserve's latest report said its losses had crossed the $200 billion mark. As of Wednesday, the Fed's earnings to the Treasury, a measure of its financial performance, had reached -$201.2 billion. The loss stems from the interest paid by the Federal Reserve to major financial institutions during the current interest rate hike cycle. In order to keep short-term interest rates at target levels, the Fed needs to pay compensation to banks and money market funds for margin deposits held with the central bank. However, Fed officials stressed that this indicator does not affect the implementation of the Fed's monetary policy.

• ECB Vice President Guindos said that the ECB expects inflation and core inflation to hover around 2% by the end of 2025, but it is too early to declare victory in the fight against inflation. Recent inflation data has been good, beating expectations, but downside risks to growth remain.

• ECB Governing Council member Villeroy said it was "likely" that interest rates would be cut in October due to the rising risk of inflation falling below the 2% target.

• United Kingdom Bank Chief Economist Peel said bank rates will need to fall over time. The Bank of United Kingdom has good reason to remain cautious in assessing the weakening persistence of inflation. The United Kingdom central bank still has the possibility of further cuts in bank rates in the future, but it must be careful to guard against the risk of cutting rates too quickly or too much. It remains concerned that structural changes could lead to more persistent inflationary pressures.

•The Bank of Japan's quarterly regional report raised the assessment of 2 of the 9 regions in Japan and left the assessment unchanged for 7 regions; The economy of Japan has recovered moderately, showing a trend of recovery or moderate recovery; Businesses in many regions say they must continue to raise wages due to structural labor shortages; Many regions say price increases are expanding.

• Japan's finance minister, Katsunobu Kato, said that the depreciation of the yen has both advantages and disadvantages; Attention needs to be paid to how excessive foreign exchange fluctuations will affect business activities and households, and action must be taken if necessary, while monitoring the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations on the economy and household activities.

The central bank of Brazil raised its GDP growth forecast to 3.0% in 2024 and raised its growth forecast to 1.93% in 2025; The country's inflation forecast for 2024 was raised to 4.38%.

Eurozone retail sales rose 0.2% month-on-month in August, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a revised unchanged value from 0.10%.

• Germany's seasonally adjusted manufacturing orders fell 5.8% month-on-month in August, with an expected decline of 2.0%, and the previous value of 2.9% was revised to 3.9%; It decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, with an expected decrease of 2.0% and a previous increase of 3.7%.

【Global Market Dynamics】

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.94% to 41,954.24, the S&P 500 fell 0.96% to 5,695.94, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.18% to 17,923.9.

• COMEX gold futures fell 0.22% to $2,661.9, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.4% to $31.94.

The U.S. oil November contract rose 3.91% to $77.29 a barrel. Brent oil December contract rose 3.82% to $81.03 a barrel.

• The 2-year Treasury yield rose 8.8 basis points to 4.006%, the 5-year Treasury yield rose 7.4 basis points to 3.871%, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 7.1 basis points to 4.032%, and the 30-year Treasury yield rose 6.2 basis points to 4.308%.

The dollar index fell 0.01% to 102.49, the EURUSD fell 0.01% to 1.0975, the GBPUSD fell 0.32% to 1.3083, the AUDUSD fell 0.57% to 0.6757, the USDJPY fell 0.36% to 148.18, the USDCHF fell 0.43% to 0.8544, and the CNH rose 275 basis points to 7.0715.

【Intraday focus】

•07:50 Japan August 贸易帐

•08:30 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) release of September meeting minutes

•10:00 Press conference held by the State Council Information Office

14:00 Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial production in August

• 14:45 France's August trade balance

•15:00 Fed Governor Coogler speaks

18:00 United States NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for September

• 20:30 United States August Trade Balance

• The next day, the Federal Reserve's Bostic spoke on the economic outlook

Editor: Ma Mengwei

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