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Text: Little Fish
Editor|Little Fish
——【· Preface ·】——》
The auto market is changing rapidly, and many car owners and car buyers may face considerable challenges, according to market analysis, starting next year, the three car types will likely encounter a serious "price drop" crisis.
This is undoubtedly an important warning for those who are planning to buy a car or plan to change it. What are the factors that are causing the rapid decline in the value of these models?
If you don't prepare in advance, will your car also become a victim of "price drops"? Only by understanding this information can we move forward steadily in the waves of the automotive market.
The wrestling of old and new forces
The automobile market in 2024 is like a huge vortex, and the competition between new energy and traditional fuel vehicles is in a white-hot stage. This competition is not only about the fate of car companies, but also affects the nerves of every consumer.
At this juncture, choosing a model that can meet current needs and maintain value has become a difficult equation to solve. The new energy vehicle camp has sprung up like mushrooms after a rain, and it is innovating at an astonishing speed.
They have not only reached new highs in terms of cruising range, but also demonstrated eye-popping innovation capabilities in terms of intelligence and interconnection. On the other hand, the traditional fuel vehicle camp, although it has a profound heritage, is a little powerless in this scientific and technological revolution.
The market is changing so quickly that many consumers are caught off guard. Yesterday it was a sweet and sweet model, but today it may be reduced to chicken ribs. In this situation, how to find the best choice in a dazzling array of models has become a concern for every prospective car owner.
The decline of second-tier luxury cars
Once upon a time, owning a second-tier luxury car was a symbol of status and taste. However, with the drastic changes in the market, these once-star models are experiencing unprecedented challenges. The aura of the brand, which used to be proud, now seems to have lost its former charm.
The data relentlessly reveals this harsh reality. Lexus, for example, saw its sales plummet from 225,000 units in 2020 to 181,000 units in 2023. This downward trend is not unique, and the entire second-tier luxury car camp is experiencing a similar dilemma.
Brands such as Infiniti and Lincoln are even more difficult to find the glory of the past, and even if they do their best, it is difficult to get a share of the fierce market competition. The reasons for this situation are not difficult to understand. In today's auto market, consumers' eyes have long been attracted by various cutting-edge technologies.
Innovative technologies such as the high-end intelligent driving system of the M9, the Yi Sifang motor equipped with the Yangwang U8, and the solid-state battery of the Zhiji L6 have become synonymous with the new generation of luxury cars. In contrast, second-tier luxury cars still use traditional 2.0-liter engines and CVT transmissions, and this technological gap makes them seem inadequate against the competition.
More worryingly, this decline seems to be set to continue. In the first quarter of 2024, the second-tier luxury car brands have been wiped out, replaced by electric models from emerging EV brands and traditional luxury brands.
This phenomenon shows that consumers' faith in second-tier luxury car brands is gradually disintegrating. For those consumers who are still considering buying a second-tier luxury car, extra caution is required. Because judging from the current market trend, this type of model may face a more serious depreciation risk in the next year or two.
Car buyers need to be prepared to even consider that the vehicle may face halving the residual value in the first year.
The battle between the old and the new electric vehicles
In the field of electric vehicles, range has always been one of the most important indicators for consumers. However, with the rapid development of technology, yesterday's "long endurance" may become today's "short legs" in the blink of an eye. This rapid change is putting significant depreciation pressure on some electric models.
Not so long ago, a range of 500 km was an enviable number. But as new technologies continue to emerge, that number is rapidly depreciating. The advent of Xiaomi cars has directly increased the range of entry-level models to 700 kilometers, which has undoubtedly brought a heavy blow to the market.
The rate of advancement in battery technology is jaw-dropping. In 2024, the energy density of the new generation of batteries launched by CATL will exceed 500Wh/kg, and the price of lithium batteries will be cut in half. This means that in the future, electric vehicles will not only have a longer range, but the price may also drop further.
In this form, those models with a range of less than 500 km are likely to be the biggest losers. Not only do they lag behind in terms of battery life, but they also struggle to match in terms of charging efficiency. Most models with a range of less than 500 km still use the 400V platform, which dwarfs the charging speed compared to the 800V platform.
What's more worrying is that solid-state batteries are expected to achieve large-scale production in 2026, when a range of 1,000 kilometers may become a new benchmark. This will undoubtedly further accelerate the depreciation of existing short-range models.
For consumers, this trend needs to be paid special attention to when purchasing electric vehicles. If your budget allows, it may be wiser to choose a model with a longer range and more efficient charging. Otherwise, there is a risk of rapid depreciation of the vehicle.
The product dilemma of the manufacturer on the verge of bankruptcy
In this rapidly changing automobile market, the survival of some car companies is also worth paying attention to. According to Bosch China's statistics, as many as 60 new car companies emerged in 2017, but by 2024, only 23 will survive, and most of them are still struggling.
This situation represents a huge risk for consumers. Once you buy the products of these manufacturers on the verge of bankruptcy, you will not only face a huge risk of depreciation, but also may encounter a lot of troubles in subsequent use.
The first is the issue of spare parts supply. Once a car company goes out of business, it becomes extremely difficult to obtain matching spare parts. It's like using an unpopular phone that has been discontinued, and it's hard to find even a phone case. While some mechanical components may be replaced by other sources, the problem goes far beyond that for highly intelligent electric vehicles.
Even more problematic is the maintenance of software and intelligent systems. Many new energy vehicles have eliminated physical buttons and integrated most of the functions on the central control screen. Once a car company goes out of business, resulting in the in-vehicle system being unable to update or malfunctioning, the vehicle may lose many key functions, seriously affecting the user experience.
In addition, from Bluetooth keys to cross-terminal connectivity, from music playback to intelligent driving, these functions rely on real-time network connectivity and cloud computing services. Once a car company goes out of business, these services can be permanently shut down, leaving car owners in "cyber silos". This kind of experience is probably much worse than a mobile phone or computer without an internet connection.
The case of WM Motor is a vivid lesson. Therefore, consumers who are interested in buying products from niche brands or emerging car companies need to be extra cautious. Before making a purchase decision, you may wish to pay more attention to the operating conditions and market feedback of car companies to reduce potential risks.
The dilemma of high-end fuel vehicles
With the vigorous development of the new energy vehicle market, traditional fuel vehicles, especially high-end fuel vehicles, are facing unprecedented challenges. In April 2024, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles once exceeded 50%, and behind this seemingly ordinary number, there is far-reaching historical significance.
According to the innovation diffusion theory, when the penetration rate of a new technology reaches 50%, it will enter the stage of rapid adoption. This means that new energy vehicles are likely to completely dominate the market in the next few years, while traditional fuel vehicles may accelerate their decline.
Under this general trend, high-end fuel vehicles with more than 300,000 yuan may bear the brunt. Once-glamorous luxury brands are now having to cut prices dramatically to maintain sales. Taking Audi A6L and BMW 3 Series as examples, even if the price is reduced by 100,000 yuan, it is only barely squeezed into the sales list.
What's more worrying is that as the market center of gravity shifts to new energy vehicles, the after-sales service of fuel vehicles will also face challenges. According to industry forecasts, the number of auto repair shops may drop sharply from the current 900,000 to 400,000 in the next five years. This means that fuel vehicle owners may face the dilemma of difficult and expensive maintenance in the future.
Not only that, as parts suppliers have transformed or withdrawn from the market, the supply of spare parts for high-end fuel vehicles may also become a major problem. This will undoubtedly further exacerbate the rate of depreciation of such models.
For consumers who are still considering buying a high-end fuel vehicle, it needs to be thoughtful. It's important to consider not only the current experience, but also the challenges you may face in the next few years.
Perhaps, it would be a wiser choice to switch to new energy models or choose more affordable fuel models. In this ever-changing automotive market, consumers are faced with more complex choices than ever before.
The decline of second-tier luxury cars, the plight of short-range electric vehicles, the risk of bankrupt manufacturers, and the bleak prospects of high-end combustion vehicles are all reminders that car buying decisions should not only focus on the present, but also look to the future.
——[· Conclusion ·] ——"
In the face of these potential "price drop" traps, rationality and caution are particularly important. Before making a purchase decision, you may want to weigh the pros and cons.
Perhaps, it is wise to hold back the urge to buy a car for a while, wait and see what happens, and wait for a better time and choice.
After all, in this era of rapid technological development, today's top-of-the-line equipment is likely to become tomorrow's standard, and a wise wait may bring us unexpected surprises.
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