Since the "balloon incident of dropping balloons" between the DPRK and Korea this year, the "war of words" between the two countries has not stopped. On October 12, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un, said that "if the drone is found again in the sky over Pyongyang, it will be a tragic tragedy."Korea Korea of course, he was exposed to such threats, but on the same day, the General Staff of the Korean People's Army suddenly ordered its front-line troops to "prepare for firing instructions," and the situation escalated abruptly......
First, Korea "defector groups" dropped balloons into North Korea, containing leaflets, USB sticks of Korea pop songs and TV dramas, US dollars and other things, aiming to incite North Korean teenagers to oppose North Korea; North Korea responded with household garbage.
Recently, North Korea said that Korea's drones entered the sky over Pyongyang, and the situation began to escalate. Because the drone has the function of reconnaissance and bomb dropping, it is far from being comparable to a balloon, and the DPRK criticizes it! As you can see from the screenshots sent by North Korea, it is indeed a drone, and it is at night.
On October 12, Kim Yo-jong denounced, "The Korea military is brazen, naïve and sophistry, eager to evade responsibility, and if the ROK military believes that as long as Tian shamelessly denies it, it can evade responsibility for a major violation of mainland sovereignty and escape the attention of the international community, it is a miscalculation." ”
Korea denied the account, saying that "it is impossible to confirm whether there are drones infiltrating Pyongyang", perhaps by civil society.
"If the South Korean military fails to identify the drones dropped by civilian groups and allows them to cross the border at will, it will be a major problem," Kim said. ”
"It would not be a problem if, according to the South Korean side, North Korean civil society groups used drones to distribute political leaflets over the presidential palace in Seoul. When this happens, the DPRK side will wait and see how the Korea government and military will react. ”
Kim Yo-jong pointed out that the South Korean side's response is tantamount to admitting that it is the mastermind of the incident or that it participated in it. "We are not concerned about the main body of this drone provocation, that is, no matter who initiated it, and we want to make it clear that if drones from Korea that cross the border and are loaded with anti-republican garbage reappear in the airspace of the republic, the DPRK will take tough retaliatory measures regardless of the reason."
Unexpectedly, on the same day, the General Staff Headquarters of the Korean People's Army suddenly issued an instruction demanding that the eight artillery brigades and regiments of the Korean People's Army on the front line and the units undertaking important firepower tasks be transferred to a "firing standby state" by 20 o'clock on 13 October to complete all operational support work. If it is confirmed that the South Korean side is provoking again, it must be attacked immediately. The reason: military tensions are on the verge of eruption due to Korea's provocative behavior against the North Korean capital, Pyongyang.
The General Staff Headquarters also instructed troops and divisions at all levels to step up surveillance and vigilance, and the capital city of Pyongyang to strengthen air defense surveillance and vigilance.
How did Korea respond?
On October 13, the Korea Ministry of National Defense sent a text message to reporters entitled "On the position of North Korea's Kim Yo-jong talks," saying that the South Korean side issued a solemn warning to the DPRK that if the DPRK violates the security of Korea citizens, that day will be the day the North Korean regime will be destroyed.
The Korea Ministry of Defense said that Kim Yo-jong's conversation not only did not reflect on the recent "garbage balloons" flying in the South Korean sky, but instead threatened the Korean people, which was completely an act of thieves shouting to catch thieves. In the conversation, Kim Yo-jong condemned the drone launch as a provocation that violates the sovereignty of other countries, but North Korea has violated Korea's airspace more than 10 times so far, including the number of times North Korea used drones to violate Korea's airspace in 2022.
The Ministry of National Defense condemned the DPRK's launching of "garbage balloons" against the ROK in order to salvage the failure of the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite, and claimed that the ROK was to blame for the anti-DPRK leaflets and shift the blame. In addition to dropping balloons, North Korea, which has no breakthrough point, is trying to use this conversation to split Korea and fuel contradictions in order to change the situation.
The Ministry of Defense stressed that North Korea's claims that it would launch an offensive posture and other words exposed the unease of its dictatorship. North Korea should not be frightened by "drone leaflets" that do not know the main subject, and should first stop dropping "garbage balloons."
Shin Won-hu, director of Korea's National Security Office, said in a guest on a current affairs program of KBS TV on the 13th, "If North Korea does not make the determination to break the net, it will not provoke a war." ”
So does North Korea dare to fire the first shot?
I don't think so. Except for its founder Kim Il-sung who provoked the Korean War, the leaders of Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un never dared to shoot at Korea. Remembering the year when Kim Chong-il was in power, when South Korea and the United States held military exercises, Kim Jong-il said in advance that as long as Korea's artillery shells fell on North Korean territory, even if it was a distance of 0.5 meters, North Korea would immediately return fire. The U.S. military did not believe it and conducted the exercise forcefully, but the DPRK was unable to do so. Therefore, North Korea's shooting instructions this time are just to make Korea nervous by straining itself.
Whether it is conventional weapons, military equipment, or economic capabilities, North Korea is far from Korea, not to mention that Korea has United States backing. North Korea's only killer weapon is nuclear weapons and the will to fight. But the Russian-Ukrainian war proves that if there is a real fight, no one will dare to drop the atomic bomb first, and it will still be a conventional war. Since it is a conventional war, North Korea's nuclear weapons have lost their deterrent effect. Therefore, if South Korea and North Korea go head-to-head, North Korea is likely not to be an opponent, because this is an era of strength.