Recently, the market has continued to oscillate and pull back, most sectors have followed the trend downward, and the effect of making money has decreased. In the volatile market, the inflow of funds in the early strong sector is more obvious, and the industries that have benefited from the price increase of some beneficiary products have begun to gain market attention.
Some analysts pointed out that although the recent increase in energy stock volatility, in the context of increased demand to push up product prices, the performance of related industry companies is expected to exceed expectations, it is recommended that investors pay attention to oil, natural gas, coal and other sectors that benefit from price increases.
A
Petroleum Oil: Increased demand boosts performance growth
In the first half of 2020, affected by the recovery of oil prices and the gradual control of the epidemic, the petroleum and petrochemical industry achieved operating income of 3,014.3 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1% year-on-year; achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 127.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 434.9%, and the net profit attributable to the mother turned from negative to positive, and much higher than the same period in 2016-2020.
The economy is recovering steadily, the current growth of crude oil demand will continue to maintain, if there is no major change in the supply side of crude oil, the oil price center is expected to continue to move up. Shengang Securities analyst Cao Xute pointed out that in the fourth quarter, the mismatch between supply and demand in the oil market is expected to be strengthened, and the rise in upstream oil and gas prices will help promote the expansion of refining gross profits and chemical price spreads, and the stability of large refining profits will be expected to be enhanced. As the main raw material of the refinery, crude oil has a certain cost promotion effect on the downstream production of finished products. The price trend of oil-based petrochemical products is basically in line with the trend of international oil prices, and in the context of rising crude oil prices, the demand for downstream finished product replenishment will be strengthened, resulting in a continuous widening trend of chemical price spreads. The output of chemicals in new large-scale refining and chemical units in China has increased, and the stability of profitability has been enhanced.
Wu Yu, an analyst at Everbright Securities, pointed out that under the easing of the new crown epidemic, the demand side continued to rise, OPEC+ maintained the original growth plan, and the gap between supply and demand boosted international oil prices to a new high, and strongly optimistic about China's petroleum and petrochemical industry chain. And believe that in 202, the oil price center will still have a large increase year-on-year, so it is still optimistic about the overall petrochemical industry chain that benefits from the rise in oil prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to the following targets: first, the upstream plate, PetroChina, Sinopec; second, the oil service sector, CNOOC services, CNOOC Engineering, CNOOC Development, Petrochemical Oil Services, Bomaike; third, the private large refining and chemical sector, Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Oriental Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Shares.
Potential Stock Selection
Sinopec (600028) performance improved significantly
The company's net profit attributable to the mother in the first half of the year was 39.153 billion yuan, an increase of 62.154 billion yuan year-on-year, achieving a turnaround. The demand for refined oil, chemical products and natural gas market has greatly improved, and prices have rebounded year-on-year, affecting the company's sales volume and sales price increased year-on-year, which is the main reason for the sharp increase in performance. Ping An Securities pointed out that due to the rise in oil prices and chemical prices and the recovery of product demand, the company has achieved considerable year-on-year growth in various business segments, especially the upstream section of oil and gas production and refining is significantly better than the middle and lower section of chemical and sales. In the first half of the year, the capital expenditure was 57.9 billion yuan, completing 35% of the annual planned capital expenditure, and in the second half of the year, the company will continue to strengthen construction in oil and gas field construction, oil and gas storage and transportation engineering, refining and upgrading, and new chemical product development.
CNOOC Oil Service (601808) operation volume is expected to pick up
The company's revenue and attributable net profit in the first half of the year have declined, mainly due to the delay in the start of operations and the decline in equipment operation volume and utilization rate, the situation in the second quarter has eased, and it is expected that the company's overall operation volume is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year. Huatai Securities pointed out that the company's fundamentals are expected to continue to improve and the global economic recovery is expected to promote the growth of crude oil demand. Oil prices maintain high volatility, oil company upstream exploration and development capital expenditure increased the possibility of improvement, oilfield service market or will slowly recover, oilfield service equipment utilization rate will also be alleviated, while the domestic oilfield service market demand remains stable. In the second half of the year, the industry boom is expected to continue to improve, and the amount of equipment operations is expected to continue to increase, driving the steady growth of the company's revenue and profits.
The value of Hengli Petrochemical (600346) will be revalued
The company relies on large-scale refining and chemicals to enter the new material industry such as lithium battery diaphragm. The company and the global lithium battery diaphragm leader SKI has similar large refining genes and the advantages of the whole production chain, the subsidiary Kanghui New Materials is now ready to go, strong into the lithium battery diaphragm and other new materials industry, firmly optimistic about the company towards the new energy blue ocean market. Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that the company and SKIET development path is highly similar, in contrast, the company has similar large refining genes and more excellent polyester new materials the whole industry chain advantages, and the company has complete raw materials, strong financial strength, solid accumulation of technical processes, the current Kanghui new materials to enter the lithium battery diaphragm industry is prepared, optimistic that the company will usher in a value revaluation. According to estimates, in 2023, the company's new materials sector profits will contribute nearly 40%, and the company will usher in a "second take-off" driven by new materials.
Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) increment will be gradually released
The company has become a leading enterprise in the petrochemical and chemical fiber industries. With the production performance of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase I reaching a new level, the first batch of units in the second phase have been put into operation, and the remaining downstream devices have been steadily advanced, and the volume increase drive of the second phase is just around the corner. Northeast Securities pointed out that under the background of inflation, crude oil is in an upward cycle in the short term, but with the gradual return of shale oil in the future, OPEC + supply marginal easing and liquidity margin tightening, it is expected that next year's oil hub will fluctuate widely at $65-80 / barrel, while there is still room for retracement in the long term, and the profits of the refining sector in the future will be potentially elastic. PTA 6 million tons / year Yisheng new materials steadily advancing, low processing fees help to earn excess income in the industry; at the same time, the polyester end due to the low growth rate of production capacity, supply and demand improved, is conducive to enjoying the redistribution of industrial chain profits.
B
Natural weather: the industry boom continues to be high
With the tightening of international natural gas supply and the upcoming fourth quarter and the approaching of winter in the northern hemisphere, the optimistic outlook for heating demand has helped natural gas prices continue to rise. In the secondary market, with the strong expectation of product price rise, related concept stocks are expected to rise in volume and price, and it is recommended that investors pay attention.
It can be seen that since June 2021, China's natural gas industry has shown the characteristics of not being weak in the off-season. Wu Yu, an analyst at Everbright Securities, believes that the rise in overseas natural gas costs has become an important driving force for china's natural gas price increase. In the context of the difficulty of overseas natural gas prices to fall in the short term, the rise in natural gas prices is more sustained than in 2018. With the advent of the traditional peak winter season, natural gas demand will further increase, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the overseas natural gas industry may intensify, and overseas natural gas prices are expected to continue to rise.
In the past decade, the proportion of primary energy in natural gas in the world has been greatly improved, and considering the cleanliness of its energy, natural gas will play an important supplementary role in the new power system in the future, and its primary energy proportion is expected to further increase. Yang Hui, an analyst at Western Securities, pointed out that with reference to the 14th Five-Year Plan, China will add 20-30Bcm of natural gas demand every year in the future, mainly driven by industrial fuels, city gas and power generation. "Coal to gas" will also continue to push up the demand for industrial fuels and city gas, and the installed capacity of natural gas is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future.
Driven by demand, the price of NYMEX natural gas continues to rise, and it is recommended to pay attention to the new natural gas, Baofeng Energy, Guanghui Energy, ENN shares, Shenzhen Gas, etc. of the beneficiary targets.
The new natural gas (603393) coal-bed methane business is expected to continue to increase
The company is a service provider of large-scale urban gas operators in Xinjiang. Benefiting from the continuous positive rise in international energy and LNG prices, the good control of the domestic new crown epidemic, the strong and continuous demand in the natural gas market, and the continuous improvement of coal-bed methane production capacity and volume prices. After the cooperation between the company and PetroChina Kunlun Gas Assets, the resources, professional advantages and market-oriented advantages of PetroChina have been fully integrated and improved, and the operational efficiency of the city gas business has been significantly improved. The company is based on Xinjiang city gas, by holding more than 50% of the shares of AAG Energy into the coalbed methane business, AAG Energy's future coalbed methane business is expected to continue to increase, compared with similar companies with higher growth, and the scale effect and management improvement will drive further costs down, optimistic about the company's future growth.
The performance growth of Guanghui Energy (600256) is guaranteed
As a leading enterprise in the domestic energy field, the company has formed a complete and supporting multi-industry chain layout. In 2021, the company's three main businesses will welcome the overall high prosperity of the industry, and the profitability of each sector will be greatly improved. Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that the company focuses on the layout of natural gas business, and its scale grows steadily every year, and its profitability continues to increase. Benefiting from this round of natural gas price increases, the company's trade gas arbitrage space is expected to increase. In addition, the third phase of the company's Qidong LNG receiving station project will enter the stage of full release of production capacity in 2021, and the volume and price are expected to significantly improve performance. In the future, the company's Qidong LNG receiving station current turnover capacity is 3 million tons / year, which will be expanded to 5 million tons / year by 2022 and 10 million tons / year by 2025, and the long-term performance growth is guaranteed.
ENN (600803) business volume increased significantly
The company grasped the strategic opportunity period of rapid growth of domestic natural gas demand, and the upstream and downstream were simultaneously promoted, and the business volume increased significantly. In the first half of the year, the total sales volume of gas was 17.5 billion cubic meters, an increase of 26% year-on-year, accounting for 9.6% of China's natural gas consumption, of which direct sales reached 1.46 billion cubic meters. Ping An Securities pointed out that the company provides natural gas sales business for more than 24 million residential users and more than 190,000 industrial and commercial users, and also provides customers with a variety of smart products around the natural gas company, including magnetic valve alarms, heating stoves, water meters, gas meters, etc., to create smart homes for users. In addition, the company actively deploys the fields of biomass, hydrogen energy and geothermal energy. The company is positioned as an integrated energy supplier to provide customers with low-carbon and clean energy and contribute to the national dual-carbon strategy.
Shenzhen Gas (601139) vigorously promotes innovative business
In the first half of 2021, the company's urban combustion business closed at 7.346 billion yuan, an increase of 48.76%, and the fastest growth was the gas connection business, achieving revenue of 1.725 billion yuan, an increase of 121.15%, mainly benefiting from the expansion of urban villages and industrial and commercial users. Soochow Securities pointed out that the proposal of the company and Risen Energy to acquire 50% of the shares of Swick was approved by the shareholders' general meeting. Swick is the world's leading supplier of photovoltaic film, with an effective production capacity of 360 million square meters / year, and a market share of 17.81% in 2020, ranking second in the world. The company's acquisition of Swick plans to help the company accelerate the transformation into a clean energy integrated operator, while actively expanding integrated energy projects such as photovoltaics and heating, developing innovative smart businesses, and promoting the expansion of smart services such as pipeline testing, gas equipment manufacturing, smart gas meters, and gas appliance brands.
C
Coal: Open a new market for valuation improvement
The performance of coal companies in the third quarter of 2021 benefited from the continuous strengthening of coal prices, and are expected to achieve high-quarter and year-on-year growth. Huatai Securities analyst Wang Shuai also expects thermal coal prices to remain high in the fourth quarter, and at the end of the year or further higher due to supply shortages, reiterating the investment rating of "overweight" China's coal industry.
According to the coal resource network, the current production release of the production area is slower than expected, but the downstream inventory is still at a low level, the inventory of key power plants is even below the level of 50 million tons, and the demand for replenishment inventory may continue to exist, while considering that the overhaul period of the Daqin Railway is coming, the replenishment of inventory may become more urgent. Continuous replenishment will form a strong support for coal prices.
Zhang Xucheng, an analyst at Kaiyuan Securities, said that he is optimistic about the further improvement of the performance of the coal industry in the second half of the year, and the performance of the third and fourth quarters is expected to exceed expectations. Under the background of the normalization of medium- and long-term tight supply, the main line logic of the revaluation of coal enterprises remains unchanged, and after the market is gradually verified and recognized, it is expected to open a new round of valuation improvement market, and continue to be optimistic about the performance of the coal sector.
The coal price rally will continue. Industrial Securities analyst Wang Kun pointed out that on the demand side, many places across the country issued a "double control" notice on energy consumption, which is affected by this, and it is expected that energy demand will ease in the short term. However, the winter heating demand is still in place, and the inventory has further declined, and the replenishment of the warehouse still supports the price of coal. On the supply side, the situation of coal mine safety supervision is becoming stricter, the release of production capacity is limited, and the supply difficulty has increased significantly. In summary, it is expected that short-term coal prices may be adjusted, but the trend of high operation is still sustainable. Investors are advised to pay attention to Shaanxi Coal, Huaibei Mining, China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, Lu'an Huanneng, etc.
Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225) leads the industry in terms of output growth
The company is the only listed company in the coal assets of Shaanxi Coal Industry Chemical Group Co., Ltd., and has significant platform advantages. Since the A-share listing, Shaanxi Coal Group has provided favorable support for the development of listed companies, mainly in the injection of high-quality assets and the divestiture of inferior assets. After the completion of the mine under construction, if all of them are injected into the listed company, the approved production capacity of the company will increase by 22.72%. Cinda Securities pointed out that the company enjoys the dividends of supply-side reform policies, and the raw coal production in the northern Shaanxi and Binhuang mining areas where it is located continues to rise. The company gives full play to the advantages of resources and technology, gradually releases high-quality production capacity, and the output of raw coal continues to grow steadily. From 2015 to 2020, the compound growth rate of the company's raw coal production was 2.64%, of which the company's raw coal output in 2020 was 125 million tons, an increase of about 10 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.74%, ahead of the industry.
Huaibei Mining (600985) performance will continue to be released
The company's performance began to gradually improve, coking coal, Shandong Province's new and old kinetic energy conversion comprehensive pilot zone construction leading group issued the "province to implement the "three resolute" action plan (2021-2022)", will withdraw from coal production capacity of 34 million tons / year, because the withdrawal of mines are in the coking coal production area, so the coking coal supply is expected to shrink. Anxin Securities pointed out that as the company's coking coal leader in East China, the construction of Xinhu Mine is steadily advancing, and it is expected to be put into operation in 2021, which is expected to benefit from the price increase brought about by the shortage of coking coal. The coke oven gas comprehensive utilization methanol project is expected to be completed in October 2021, and chemical production is expected to increase. The coke industry continues to withdraw from capacity. At the same time, in the context of higher international oil prices, chemical prices are also expected to rise, and the company's performance is expected to continue to be released.
The long-term value of China Shenhua (601088) is optimistic
The company's performance in the second quarter exceeded expectations, mainly benefiting from the increase in volume and price of coal business, while the transportation and coal chemical businesses contributed to the performance growth. Considering that the coal price in the second half of the year or will continue to run strongly, the company's performance release is good. Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that in the first half of the year, the company's production and sales have increased significantly, mainly due to the active release of the company's production capacity under the support of supply. In addition, the non-coal business as a whole is good, and the increase in "electric transportation" is significant. Considering the limited incremental release of production areas and imports, it is expected that the supply will be tight in the second half of the year, which will form a strong support for coal prices. At the same time, the policy to ensure supply has increased the production of leading coal enterprises to form a guarantee. Optimistic about the company's annual performance supported by volume and price. Based on the stable performance expectations, the company's sustained and stable high dividends also further highlight the long-term investment value of leading coal enterprises.
Yanzhou Coal (600188) coal chemical industry contribution increased significantly
The contribution of the coal chemical sector to the company's revenue and profit increased significantly due to the increase in the price of coal chemical products, the commissioning of projects under construction and the acquisition of the Group's assets. In the first half of 2021, the coal chemical industry sector contributed 16.943 billion yuan in revenue, an increase of 109.98% year-on-year, accounting for 25.92% of the pre-merger revenue, accounting for 18.9 percentage points. Contributed operating profit of 2.664 billion yuan, a year-on-year turnaround and increase in profit, accounting for 34.04% of operating profit. Huajin Securities pointed out that due to the recovery of the global coal market, Australian coal prices accelerated in the second half of the year, the average price of the first half of the year with reference to NEWC prices was 76.67 US dollars / ton, and the average price from July to August was 160 US dollars / ton, hitting a new high since July 2008, and it is expected that the profitability of the Australian plate will recover as the main profit growth point.
This article is from the Financial Investment Newspaper