Zhao Yuanyuan of Jianhong Era: In the second half of the year, the A-share mid-cap index is expected to continue its relatively strong pattern

China Securities Network News (reporter Wang Hui) a few days ago, Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong Times, said that China's economic growth rate is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, and monetary policy is likely to show a neutral and slightly positive tone. In this context, after the rapid adjustment of the A-share market at the beginning of last week, the overall adjustment space of major stock indexes is expected to be basically in place. From the perspective of medium-term time dimension, the A-share small and medium-cap index and growth style in the second half of the year are expected to continue the relatively strong operating pattern.

On July 31, the "2021 (16th) China Private Equity Fund Ranking Interim Strategy Conference" hosted by Chaoyang Yonglian was held in Shanghai. Zhao Yuanyuan said at the meeting that although affected by the base effect, the economic growth rate may decline slightly in the second half of the year, but the overall expectation is still stable. In the context of the downstream SME profits being compressed by raw material price increases, monetary policy may be slightly more neutral, and it is expected that there may be a reduction in the RRR in November when the MLF (medium-term lending facility) is concentrated. On the other hand, the current US unemployment rate is still far from the target value of 4.8%, and the Fed is expected to maintain the current QE progress in the third quarter, and whether to reduce QE in the fourth quarter is expected to be determined according to the epidemic and employment in the third quarter. Based on the above analysis, the private equity person is not pessimistic about the A-share market in the second half of the year.

As far as the long-short trend of the short-term and medium-term market is concerned, Zhao Yuanyuan believes that after a rapid correction at the beginning of last week, the A-share market as a whole has basically been in place in terms of adjustment space. Although the market may remain weak in the next one or two weeks, the small and mid-cap index is expected to continue the overall strong operating pattern in the second half of the year.

In terms of specific investment opportunities, Zhao Yuanyuan said that the management's regulatory policy on off-campus training may further spread to other industries that affect the "cost of parenting", and is expected to bring long-term benefits to industries such as on-campus education informatization and assisted reproduction. At present, in the field of consumption, Jianhong Times is mainly optimistic about the "beauty economy" such as medical beauty, skin care, hair transplantation and orthodontics, the "lazy economy" such as smart home appliances and prefabricated dishes, and investment opportunities such as consumption-related intelligent manufacturing (smart cars, Internet of Things).

In addition, for the investment system of the Jianhong era, Zhao Yuanyuan said that the institution adheres to the top-down timing strategy, and on the basis of taking into account the bottom-up selection of the track, it pays more attention to starting from the macro and industry mesoscope, and makes time-based judgments on positions and industry rotations. While striving to avoid market "beta risk", industries with excess returns can be selected at each time stage.