This movie was recommended by the MBA's managerial economics teacher, and I was surprised that I missed such a good movie.
But I don't want to talk about economics and statistics, I see stories about choice.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" >billy really believe in statistics?</h1>
The baseball team's GM Billy chose to work with Peter of Yale University, did he believe the numbers, or did he "choose" to believe the numbers?
Did he not have a better choice, so he made a desperate bet?
Anyway, barefoot people are not afraid to wear shoes, how bad can it be?
I'd like to believe that he agrees with Peter's statistical theory in his heart, so he can ignore the world's opposition and ridicule, and even trade the team's only remaining star players to continue to execute his strategy.
But at that time, he had no way back. When there is no way back, there is often only a bloody road.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > really statistics helped them win</h1>?
The result of the 20-game winning streak is truly shocking, but I want to ask again, is it really statistics that helped them?
Victory can never be attributed to just one factor.
Any one result is a thousand accidental intertwined, like I'm sitting here writing this review, because I read an MBA, and I met this teacher, and this teacher happened to recommend this movie, and I just wanted to write, and I happened to have time to write.
Putting aside other factors and talking about the outcome, you will fall into the vicious circle of survivor bias.
Did Billy really just use statistics?
He had never had an emotional connection with his players before and he felt it would prevent him from firing them off in the future. He was a simple immediac.
However, in order to stick to his statistical strategy, he talked to players with leader potential, and he pointed out their weaknesses and improvement directions. Although these moves are based on numbers, the difference is that he injects emotion and confidence into the players.
So the numbers may be some steel bars and stones, emotions, running-in, cohesion these may be cement.
Together, the two are indestructible.
<h1 class= "pgc-h-arrow-right" > the strange circle of empiricism</h1>
The reason why the old pedants of baseball ridiculed and opposed their attempts was because they were empiricists.
They consider their experience in baseball to be classic and textbook.
Now broken by numbers. In the end of the film, Red Sox also uses the same tactics to win the league championship.
This method is effective, and it will surely get more popularity.
So, will statistically based sports competitions become the new empiricism?
What new tactics will come to defeat this empiricism?
The analysis of the result is always only an induction, and understanding the operation of things has the ability to follow the future.
But it's just about following.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > Peter's metaphor</h1>
Peter showed Billy the record of a player who had never run to second base. After one shot he sprinted desperately to second base, only to be told that you had hit a homer. Run slowly.
The Analects say: Take from above it, get from it, take it from it, take it from below, take it from below, and you will not get anything.
When you sprint for second base, you have a chance to hit a homer.
Thanks, there was chicken blood to.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" >Billy's choice</h1>
An interesting thing. At the end of the film, Billy's daughter says, if you stay in California, just let me know. If you're not planning on staying in California, you're really a great dad.
The daughter is hoping that her father will leave California and join the Red Sox team. She wanted her father to develop even more.
Billy's choice, however, was to stay where he was and wait for the next victory.
Probably because of his youth, due to the influence of money, he was unable to make the right choice, and his heart was always struggling and failed to reconcile with himself.
So when a choice is in front of him, Money, becomes his biggest obstacle.
My own interpretation is that he wants to go to Red Sox, he just can't get past his youth self.
And he has a good reason that I want to be able to stay with my daughter.
So he gritted his teeth and be a loser. Whatever.