On November 28, the 2020 China Finance Society Academic Annual Conference and the China Financial Forum Annual Conference were held in Beijing. The theme of this annual meeting was "New Development Pattern of Financial Support double circulation", and Zhou Xiaochuan, president of the China Society of Finance and Finance, and leaders of one bank, two sessions and one bureau attended and delivered keynote speeches.
<h1 class= "pgc-h-arrow-right" > Zhou Xiaochuan: The indicator of inflation can be more comprehensive and richer</h1>
Just one day before the annual meeting, Zhou Xiaochuan, president of the China Society of Finance and Finance, published an article entitled "Expanding the Concept and Measurement of Inflation", which was widely disseminated on major financial websites and brushed the "circle of friends". At the annual meeting, Zhou Xiaochuan once again elaborated on the core views.
In the context of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, especially the experience and practice of major developed economies in recent years, low inflation has challenged the central bank's monetary policy operation and theoretical framework, and also shaken the theoretical foundation of inflation targeting. The challenge of low inflation to central bank monetary policy has also become a hot issue in the market and the theoretical community.
Zhou Xiaochuan believes that the traditional inflation measurement mainly faces four aspects of controversy and challenges:
First, current price index inflation contains less asset prices, which may bring some distortion, especially in long-term comparisons. For example, if the asset price becomes more expensive, the future return on investment of the pension will be reduced, and it will cost more money to enjoy the envisaged pension level in the future. Whether this is inflation or not is a matter of discussion. At present, ordinary people must consider the expenditure on pensions, medical care, education and housing in the expenditure basket.
The second is what kind of income is used as the expenditure basket for calculating inflation. Current practice is to use disposable income as a basket of expenditures for calculating inflation. Disposable income corresponds to conventional recurrent goods and services, especially food, daily necessities, etc., which have indeed not increased in price, or even reduced prices. But what is outside the basket also needs to be spent, whether it is pre-tax expenditure or what some system requires expenditure. Residents and consumers should be aware that "the wool is out of the sheep", and this part of the price change is ultimately to bear.
The third is the impact of the measurement of labor costs on inflation. The duration of labor, intensity, commuting, overtime, and vacation conditions also need to be measured, and current inflation statistics and analyses do not fully incorporate these concepts and relationships.
The fourth is the issue of comparability. In the past, the price index was a vertical ratio, which would cause certain problems. For example, the development of science and technology has led to a very severe decline in the price of electronic information, IT and other related products, which may contribute more to the lower price index or negative adjustment. How to calculate the impact of scientific and technological progress on prices is worth studying. In addition, intergenerational structural changes can be very drastic. Changes in longevity lead to pension inflation. In 2019, the life expectancy of Chinese was 77.3 years, but in 1949 it was only 35 years. As life expectancy increases, the amount of investment required to ensure an equivalent standard of living will also change dramatically.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that as a feedback variable of monetary policy, inflation indicators can also be considered from a more comprehensive and richer perspective.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > Central Bank Liu Guiping: Five aspects actively and steadily promote the independent opening up of the financial industry</h1>
The annual meeting was Liu Guiping's first public appearance since he became the new vice governor of the central bank. Liu Guiping delivered a keynote speech on the theme of "New Development Pattern of High-level Financial Open Service", and the key word was "openness".
Liu Guiping said that expanding the opening up of the financial industry will inject new vitality into China's financial industry, help improve the overall competitiveness of China's financial industry, achieve a higher level, higher level and more healthy development, and provide great momentum for building a new development pattern.
"The COVID-19 pandemic has not disrupted the pace of opening up China's financial markets." Liu Guiping said that since the beginning of this year, Fitch has become the second international rating company to enter the Chinese market after S&P, goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and other foreign financial institutions have achieved control over their joint venture securities companies in China, and The joint venture companies initiated by American Express in China have obtained bank card clearing business licenses. Among the world's three major bond indexes, Chinese bonds have been included in the Bloomberg Barclays and JPMorgan Chase Indexes, and there is a clear timetable for the inclusion of the FTSE Russell Index, and the enthusiasm of foreign investment in Chinese bonds continues to increase.
Liu Guiping said that the People's Bank of China will conscientiously implement the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, continue to work with relevant departments, follow the principles of internationalization, marketization, and rule of law, and actively and steadily promote the independent opening up of the financial industry.
The first is to promote the systematization and institutionalization of the financial industry. Fully implement the pre-establishment national treatment plus negative list management system, provide a fair and just competitive environment for foreign investment to enter the domestic market, give play to the important role of domestic and foreign financial institutions in connecting domestic and international double cycles, and provide better financial services for all kinds of market entities participating in internal and external circulation. On the basis of maintaining and advocating trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, and by promoting rule reform and optimizing institutional supply arrangements, a new financial opening system that can adapt to high-quality economic development and the new development pattern will be formed.
The second is to promote the opening up of financial markets and infrastructure interconnection. With the implementation of the Shanghai International Financial Center, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the Hainan Free Trade Port and other national development strategies as a breakthrough, in line with the needs of international investors in the allocation of RMB assets, in accordance with the principles of internationalization, marketization and rule of law, expand the high-level opening up of the financial market, further facilitate the use of RMB by foreign investors to invest in domestic bonds and stocks, optimize the interconnection and interconnection arrangements of the financial market, and improve the liquidity and pricing efficiency of the capital market.
The third is to steadily and prudently promote the internationalization of the renminbi. Adhere to the market-driven and independent choice of enterprises, take the service of the real economy as the orientation, further optimize the support policies for the cross-border use of RMB, enhance the attractiveness of RMB in foreign trade, investment and financing, financial market transactions, etc., and promote trade and investment facilitation. Improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, accelerate the construction of the foreign exchange market and open up to the outside world. Deepen monetary cooperation and create a new type of mutually beneficial cooperative relationship based on the free use of rmb. Improve the infrastructure for RMB internationalization and the arrangement of RMB clearing banks, and improve the efficiency of RMB clearing. Support the development of the offshore RMB market and promote the formation of a virtuous circle in the onshore and offshore RMB markets.
The fourth is to promote the high-quality development of the "Belt and Road". With "six corridors, six roads, multiple countries and multiple ports" as the main framework, we will vigorously promote interconnection and industrial cooperation and expand the space for financial cooperation. Follow international practices and the principle of debt sustainability, improve the open, diversified and market-oriented investment and financing system, and improve the level of financial integration of the "Belt and Road".
The fifth is to improve the risk prevention and control system that is compatible with comprehensive opening up. Coordinate to promote the opening up of the financial industry, the free use of the renminbi and the reform of the rmb exchange rate formation mechanism, build a broader financial safety net, and consolidate the institutional foundation for risk prevention and control. Establish and improve the two-in-one management framework of "macro-prudential + micro-supervision" for cross-border capital flows, strengthen behavior supervision, and prevent systemic risks of cross-border capital flows. Strengthen cross-border supervision and disposal cooperation to prevent cross-border regulatory arbitrage and risk transmission. Widely apply high and new technologies to improve regulatory efficiency and the effectiveness of risk prevention and control.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > Cao Yu of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: Building an Effective Financial Regulatory System under the New Development Pattern</h1>
The key word in Cao Yu's keynote speech was "supervision".
Cao Yu believes that in recent years, the supervision of banking and insurance has achieved remarkable results. Under the new development pattern, financial regulators shoulder new missions and tasks, and need to constantly explore regulatory concepts and methods under the new situation, persistently improve the effectiveness of supervision, and form a benign interaction and positive incentive between supervision and the market.
Cao Yu said that first of all, we must respect the laws of finance. It is necessary to adhere to the prevention of financial risks as the primary goal, adhere to the service of the real economy as the fundamental task, and adhere to the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of consumers as an important mission. Secondly, we must maintain the determination of supervision, adhere to the determination of professional focus, and adhere to the determination of supervision according to law.
"We must always maintain the transparency of regulatory rules, maintain the consistency of regulatory standards, and treat Chinese or foreign-funded institutions, state-owned or private institutions equally, and apply consistent regulatory standards." Cao Yu said.
In addition, at present, China's financial supply is unbalanced and insufficient, and the contradiction between multi-level and diversified financial demand is still relatively prominent. Cao Yu pointed out that it is equally important to stimulate the market vitality of financial institutions and promote the high-quality development of the financial industry. There are two types of relationships to be properly handled, namely: the relationship between strengthening supervision and supporting innovation; and the relationship between large institutions and small and medium-sized institutions.
To properly handle the relationship between strengthening supervision and supporting innovation, it is necessary to always take the "three advantages" principle of "whether it is conducive to supporting the real economy", "whether it is conducive to preventing financial risks" and "whether it is conducive to protecting the legitimate rights and interests of consumers" as the basic criterion for measuring the rationality of financial innovation, and resolutely crack down on "pseudo-innovation" and "chaotic innovation" behaviors that deviate from the needs of the real economy, endanger financial stability, and infringe on the rights and interests of consumers.
To deal with the relationship between large institutions and small and medium-sized institutions is to do solid classification supervision and differentiated supervision, and strive to create a benign financial symbiosis environment in which all kinds of financial institutions develop in dislocation, complement each other's advantages, refine the division of labor, and orderly competition.
For how to continuously improve the supervision method, Cao Yu said that with institutional supervision as the core, with the improvement of the corporate governance structure as the starting point, and market access, off-site supervision and on-site inspection as the axis, strengthen the capital supervision, liquidity supervision and solvency supervision of financial institutions, and realize multi-dimensional, in-depth and full-cycle supervision of legal entities. At the same time, more attention should be paid to the organic combination of functional supervision and institutional supervision, so as to achieve full coverage of institutional, business and risk supervision.
At present, the added value of China's financial industry accounts for about 8% of GDP, and the financial industry has been integrated into all aspects of social operation, and it is difficult to achieve regulatory goals solely by relying on financial management departments. Therefore, Cao Yu also said that he will also vigorously promote collaborative supervision. Under the unified command of the Financial Commission, it is necessary to strengthen the coordination of work between the regulatory departments and the macro-management departments, and between the financial departments and other departments. Pay more attention to the coordination efficiency of macro-prudential supervision, micro-prudential supervision and behavior supervision, pay more attention to the optimal combination of financial policies, industrial policies and fiscal policies, and pay more attention to the enthusiasm of the central and local governments to form a national "chess game" for financial risk prevention and control.
<h1 class= "pgc-h-arrow-right" > Securities Regulatory Commission Yan Qingmin: The reform of the registration system has made a good start To strengthen the rigidity of delisting</h1>
Yan Qingmin, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that the key word in his speech was "quality of listed companies".
Yan Qingmin said that since last year, the CSRC has conscientiously implemented the nine-character policy of the Financial Commission of the State Council on "building a system, non-intervention, and zero tolerance", led by the reform of the pilot registration system of the science and technology innovation board and the ChiNext board, improving the multi-level capital market system, strengthening the construction of the basic system, paying more attention to the balance between the investment end and the financing end, and paying more attention to expanding the strength of institutional investors. On the one hand, since the beginning of this year, there are more than 340 new listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, of which the science and technology innovation board and the reformed ChiNext board are close to more than 180, which effectively serve the real economy and scientific and technological innovation; on the other hand, more long-term funds allocate A shares, compared with the beginning of last year, the scale of equity funds increased by 69%, the proportion of professional institutional investors continued to increase, and the market structure and ecology underwent positive changes.
Yan Qingmin pointed out that it is necessary to enhance the advanced nature of the industry and consolidate the foundation for the high-quality development of listed companies. To improve the quality of listed companies in China as a whole, we must closely focus on the national industrial policy orientation, transform from factor-driven to innovation-driven, form an industrial structure of listed companies that matches the "double cycle" pattern, and promote a high-level cycle of science and technology, capital and the real economy. On the one hand, make a fuss about expanding the increment. The science and technology innovation board should adhere to the positioning of "hard technology", and the ChiNext board should effectively serve the "three innovations and four new", steadily implement the registration system in the whole market, guide high-quality enterprises with core technology, innovation and industry leadership to land in the capital market, and improve the industrial advanced nature of listed companies from the source. On the other hand, efforts should be made to optimize the stock, support listed companies to eliminate inefficient supply, clear backward production capacity, accelerate the transformation from traditional industries to emerging industries, from low-end manufacturing to high-tech manufacturing, and improve core competitiveness.
Yan Qingmin said that in the process of enterprise development, it will face many uncertainties such as market risk, compliance risk, debt risk, etc., but the most fundamental is moral hazard. Preventing moral hazard requires both external constraints such as supervision and internal checks and balances on corporate governance. Enhance the effectiveness of governance and grasp the key to the high-quality development of listed companies. Proceeding from China's actual conditions, to promote the formation of effective checks and balances of corporate governance, it is necessary to highlight the supervision of rules, highlight the promotion of classification, highlight the practice of governance, and work the three prominences.
Yan Qingmin believes that to improve the quality of listed companies, enterprises themselves bear the main responsibility. At the same time, capital market supervision should also be combined with changes in the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad to enhance adaptability.
First, improve the stock issuance and registration system with information disclosure as the core, and earnestly do a good job of "entrance gate". In the next process of fully implementing the registration system, we should firmly adhere to the core of information disclosure and continuously improve the adaptability of the registration system. It is necessary to further improve the information disclosure rule system, while ensuring truthfulness, accuracy and completeness, promote information disclosure to be more concise, clear, easy to understand, and improve the quality of information disclosure. It is necessary to further promote the electronic and online information disclosure, which not only facilitates investors to read, but also reduces the cost of corporate disclosure.
Second, improve the market-oriented mechanism for mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations, and better play the role of the main channel. To further improve the adaptability of China's M&A system under the "double cycle" pattern, it is necessary to take the implementation of the M&A and reorganization registration system as the starting point, further improve the market mechanism, enrich market tools, strengthen supervision during and after the event, and support listed companies to strengthen the scale effect and synergy effect through mergers and acquisitions and reorganization, and improve operational efficiency.
Third, improve the normalized delisting mechanism to achieve "retreat" and "retreat steadily". Listed companies have in and out, survival of the fittest, in order to "flow water is not corrupt, the household hub is not beetle"; "only in and out" will distort the market valuation system, resulting in reverse selection, bad currency to expel good money. To improve the adaptability of China's delisting mechanism, it is necessary to broaden the channels for diversified withdrawal through reorganization, reorganization, and delisting. At the same time, for the "black sheep" of serious financial fraud and the "empty shell zombies" who have lost the ability to continue to operate, the rigidity of delisting will be enhanced, and it will never be allowed to "delay for a long time". Implement the new Securities Law, promote the litigation system of representatives of insurance institutions to land as soon as possible through typical cases, and achieve the dual goals of market clearance and investor protection.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > Safe Exchange Bureau Zheng Wei: Comprehensively relax and abolish restrictions on the scale of cross-border investment and financing and the use of funds</h1>
Zheng Wei, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and the coming period, we will accelerate the construction of a foreign exchange management system that is compatible with the new development pattern.
First of all, we must steadily and orderly promote the opening up of capital accounts.
The first is to comprehensively relax the access of foreign capital in the field of direct investment, and effectively implement the pre-establishment national treatment plus negative list management model. Implement and promote the signing of bilateral and multilateral trade and investment agreements, innovate direct investment methods, and promote the reform of foreign exchange management methods for qualified foreign limited partners (QFLPs) and qualified domestic limited partners (QDLP) to better meet the cross-border investment needs of market entities.
The second is to promote the unified coordination of cross-border financing transactions and exchange links, formulate a policy framework for cross-border investment of private equity investment funds, realize the macro-prudential management of full-caliber cross-border financing plus the negative list of the industry, and improve the level of cross-border financing facilitation.
The third is to accelerate the internationalization of the financial market, promote the realization of securities investment opening policies that conform to international practices, issue QDII quotas on a regular basis, implement the pilot of "cross-border wealth management", and integrate the open channels of the financial market. In the medium and long term, under the premise of complying with the "three antis", except for a few transactions involving national security and high-risk fields, the basic freedom of two-way flow of cross-border capital will be realized, and the management system for cross-border capital transactions of individuals will be established and improved, so as to meet the reasonable needs of individual foreign investment and use of foreign exchange.
Second, it is necessary to build a new system of higher level open foreign exchange management. The first is to promote high-level trade liberalization and facilitation. Promote the comprehensive shift of foreign exchange management methods from pre-review to post-verification, and promote the realization of efficient, safe and low-cost cross-border trade settlement. Promote the improvement of the classification management of trade entities guided by risk assessment, and form a virtuous circle of "the more compliance the more autonomous" and "the more honest and convenient". The second is to achieve high-level cross-border investment and financing liberalization and facilitation. The work has been implemented by comprehensively relaxing and abolishing restrictions on the scale and use of funds for cross-border investment and financing, expanding the pilot reform of foreign debt registration and management, and carrying out the pilot business of multinational companies integrating local and foreign currencies into the capital pool. The third is to promote the high-quality development of the "Belt and Road". Support the "Belt and Road" enterprise trade settlement facilitation facilitation, optimize foreign exchange accounts, and help enterprises "go global". The fourth is to support regional development strategies such as the Hainan Free Trade Port and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, give the Pilot Free Trade Zone and the Free Trade Port greater autonomy in reform, and create a new highland for reform and opening up. The fifth is to build an open, diversified, and functional foreign exchange market, coordinate the development of the onshore market and the offshore market, and enhance the international influence of the domestic market and the global participation of financial institutions.
In addition, it is necessary to further enhance the modernization level of the national governance system and governance capacity under the conditions of opening up. The first is to continuously improve the two-in-one management framework of "macro-prudential + micro-supervision" in the foreign exchange market, focus on preventing large-scale cross-border capital flows from causing systemic financial risks, and micro-supervision focuses on maintaining the competition order of foreign exchange market competition and the legitimate rights and interests of consumers, and severely cracks down on illegal activities in the foreign exchange field with a "zero tolerance" attitude. The second is to promote the construction of "digital external management" and "safe external management" empowered by science and technology, build a cross-border capital flow monitoring system with artificial intelligence and big data technology, improve the cross-border blockchain platform to serve foreign exchange receipts and expenditures and cross-border financing capabilities, and better serve the development of the real economy. The third is to improve the legal system in the field of financial opening-up, promote the revision of foreign exchange management regulations, improve the foreign-related economic and trade law and rule system, and strengthen domestic cross-departmental and international cross-border regulatory cooperation.