The deepest slowdown in the world economy in a decade may have passed its worst period.
A wave of interest rate cuts by central banks, including the Federal Reserve, and eagerness for the international trade situation are boosting confidence in financial markets, while major economic indicators are showing signs of stabilization after the recent decline.
David Solomon, chief executive of Goldman Sachs, said the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. in the near term was "unlikely."
While there may not be a strong rebound, a relative upturn could halt fears of a recession in the world economy a few weeks ago. Such an environment is enough for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other monetary authorities to suspend more monetary stimulus.
"We do expect multiple reasons to make global growth more stable in 2020 than in 2019," said David Mann, Standard Chartered's chief economist based in Singapore. He agreed with the International Monetary Fund's forecast that global growth is expected to accelerate next year.
Reasons for the confidence include that while the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing Index shrank for the sixth consecutive month in October, it has also rebounded for three consecutive months thanks to strong production and orders.
In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing indicators stabilized in October, while Friday's official jobs report showed job growth exceeded expectations, with the first two months' employment data being revised up a lot. ISM's service metrics are also showing signs of improvement.
In Europe, there are also initial signs of recovery after trade frictions and Brexit hits. The eurozone grew faster than expected in the third quarter; while Germany may have slipped into recession, Ifo reported manufacturers expecting a slight rise in October.
As for Asia, South Korea's semiconductor inventories fell the most in more than two years in September, marking the end of the global technology downturn.
Financial markets are becoming optimistic. U.S. stocks hit a new high on Monday, with yields on 10-year Treasuries rising. European and Asian stocks also rose.
"I looked at the fiscal/monetary mix, and it's the most stimulating mix I've ever seen," Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Paul Tudor Jones said Tuesday. "No wonder the stock market hit new highs. This is really the most favorable environment I have ever seen for economic growth and a stronger market, and of course in the short term. ”