On the eve of the rise of a great power, there are many crises, especially for China, whether war or peace is a difficult problem, and recently, Comrade Putin expressed his views on this problem. According to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on October 13, President Putin answered a reporter's question on the possibility of China's use of force against Taiwan in his speech at the "Russian Energy Week" forum, saying that "Chinese philosophy has nothing to do with the use of force" and "there is no need to use force here." In other words, Putin believes that China is unlikely to use force against Taiwan, and there is no need to use force.
I have to say that the situation in the Taiwan Strait has been quite tense recently. In mid-September, with the support of the United States, Japan held a 100,000-person military exercise with the goal of annexing the Diaoyu Islands and "protecting Taiwan.", after which the United States gathered 17 warships from 6 countries (including 4 aircraft carriers) to hold large-scale military exercises near the coast of China. In order to deter Taiwan independence, China dispatched a total of 149 military planes to cruise Taiwan during the National Day period, and under such circumstances, the "army commander" of the Taiwan authorities also led a delegation to secretly visit the United States.
The Global Times reported on October 13 that "the Taiwan Strait is at an unprecedented high risk," that "all parties are preparing for the worst," and that "a war may be triggered suddenly." This is not alarmist, the reason is simple, the momentum of China's rise is difficult to contain, and the United States has dug a war trap in Taiwan in order to prevent China from surpassing itself and replacing its hegemony. To put it simply, it is to encourage Taiwan independence, to pressure China to make concessions, and if Beijing does not budge, Taiwan independence will become a reality and the mainland will be forced to intervene, and then the United States will be able to participate in the war against China under the banner of "safeguarding peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait."
"Fight or not fight" is a huge problem for China. There are two possibilities for "not fighting," that is, either concessions to the United States and Taiwan independence; concessions not to the United States, the establishment of Taiwan independence, the mainland endures, the former situation requires China to abandon its rise, the cost is quite large; the latter situation can not account for the people, affect the morale of the people, or lead to the outbreak of internal crisis. As for "fighting," it is naturally neither giving up the opportunity to rise nor allowing Taiwan independence, and the rhythm of tearing up the face of the United States, but this is also facing a big problem, and China still does not have the strength to break the wrist with the United States in strategic weapons.
In order to contain China, the United States is not afraid to use nuclear weapons, not long ago, the United States F-35 stealth fighter once again simulated the test firing of nuclear bombs, and the United States is also actively promoting the miniaturization of nuclear bombs in preparation for "controllable nuclear war". Nuclear war can still be controlled, isn't that a joke? Of course, the nuclear war with Russia is uncontrollable, after all, Moscow's nuclear arsenal is very large, strategic bombers and strategic nuclear submarines are no worse than the United States, and the fighting nation has not promised to "not use nuclear weapons first".
Since the gap between China and the United States and Russia in the field of nuclear weapons is obvious, to make up for this gap, according to the calculations of Russian military experts, it will take at least 10 years, but the United States will not give China this time. If the United States uses tactical nuclear bombs in the Taiwan Strait war, how can China retaliate? If the strategic nuclear bomb retaliates, although the United States will suffer a heavy blow, China will certainly be erased, more money than you, and you are not afraid of death. China can only hurt the United States, but the United States can strike a fatal blow, so the United States has played the "nuclear deterrence" to the extreme, betting on Chinese "sparing its life".
If at this time, allies with powerful strategic nuclear weapons can stand up to China, perhaps the situation will be different, but from the current putin's statement, although Lavrov said that "Taiwan is part of China", it is clear that Russia "has no intention of wading through muddy waters", and Russia's support for China is limited to principle, after all, this may trigger a nuclear war, any ally will be cautious, and the most fundamental thing between major powers is interests, not righteousness. As early as June, the Russian ambassador to China expressed his conviction that "China and the United States will not go to war." Of course, this is not difficult to understand, because Russia "does not want to express its position", but it is not true that there is "no possibility of war" between China and the United States.
So back to the issue itself, on the Taiwan issue, can we fight or not? The leader said that the Taiwan issue "arises with the country's poverty and weakness, and it will certainly be solved with the rejuvenation of the country." Grasping a key point of "rejuvenation," after the rejuvenation of the country, many problems will be solved, "small and intolerable is chaotic and big plots," and sometimes it is indeed necessary to "break the teeth and swallow blood.", and the "sharp blade" has also mentioned many times that it is necessary to learn from Liu Bang and learn from the two points of this great emperor.
First, when you are in a weak position, do not fight with a strong opponent, no matter how provocative the other party is, you must endure, even if Xiang Yu captures his wife, children, old and young, you must endure and endure, and endure a knife on the head, which is not something that ordinary people can do, Liu Bang did it, so he established the Han Dynasty, and Xiang Yu perished. Second, make friends with allies, do not be reluctant to "divide the princes", in the Marxist point of view, that is, "grasp the main contradiction", Liu Bang's main contradiction is Xiang Yu, and the main contradiction in China is the United States.
It seems that Putin also advised China to "not be strategically impulsive" and "unnecessary." China has such a good momentum of development, why should it compete for a moment? During the War of Resistance Against Japan, we exchanged space for time and finally won the final victory. As for the Taiwan issue, we may as well do the opposite, exchanging time for space, and wait until the day when the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is realized, and the great cause of reunification will naturally come to fruition.