Industry dynamics| production decline + strong demand The price of raw salt in the sea is approaching a record high

Financial Associated Press (Qingdao, reporter Xiao Lianghua) news, since 2021, raw salt prices have been in an upward channel. According to the statistics of the "Salt Industry Tribe", after the National Day, the quotation of raw salt in Shandong Haiyan reached a maximum of 380 yuan / ton, approaching a historical high, and the cost of downstream production enterprises increased. Snow Salt Industry (600929. SH) in charge said that the company's edible salt and industrial salt are considering price increases.

Raw salt can be divided into industrial salt, edible salt, agricultural and animal husbandry salt and fishing salt according to the use, and the reporter of the Financial Associated Press learned that the sharp rise in raw materials has different downstream effects. According to industry insiders, the ex-factory price of edible salt has risen more than the original salt, and the profit space of related enterprises has increased. However, the retail price of edible salt is relatively stable, and the profits of intermediate wholesalers are greatly damaged; as the main raw materials of soda ash and caustic soda, the rise in the price of raw salt has also led to the rise in the price of two alkalis to a certain extent.

Weather factors led to a decline in production

In 2021, especially in the third quarter, raw salt prices ushered in a wave of crazy long market. Zhao Qixiang, head of the "Salt Industry Tribe", said that in July last year, Haiyan in Shandong once reached a low price of 125 yuan / ton, and has risen all the way since then. By July this year, the original salt quotation increased to about 250 yuan / ton, after which, the price of raw salt accelerated, after the National Day increased to 350-380 yuan / ton, "Historically, the highest price of sea salt is 380 yuan / ton." ”

Zhao Zhixiang further said that the price of raw salt rose so rapidly that many practitioners could not understand it, "The current market is a bit chaotic, enterprises quote one price a day, and the price difference between different enterprises is relatively large." ”

Recently, the reporter went to a salt field in Binhai New Area, Weifang City, to visit and found that autumn salt has begun to pick up salt, and Mr. Xu, the owner of the salt farm, said that the hundreds of tons of raw salt previously stored have not been sold because the price has been rising. "The cost of each ton of salt in the big salt farm can be controlled at 80-120 yuan, and my salt farm is only a few thousand tons in size, and the cost is higher, between 150-200 yuan."

At the same time, Mr. Xu said that with the exploitation of resources, the concentration of underground brine has been declining, and there are more rainy days this year, and the output has declined to a certain extent. "This is the case in many places along the coast."

Mr. Fan, the person in charge of a salt farm in Changyi City, Shandong Province, said that in early July, the production in Shandong fell greatly due to the impact of rainy weather; at the end of July, typhoon "fireworks" entered Shandong from Ludongnan, and most areas ushered in rainfall, and the installation of individual sea salt enterprises was seriously damaged, and the production of sea salt in the region was affected to a certain extent.

Entering August and September, Haiyan was mainly based on inventory shipments, the inventory of enterprises continued to decline, and the mentality of salt enterprises to sell increased. "Last year's production fell by a third, and this year it has to fall by another 20-30% on this basis."

In terms of lake salt and well salt, the reporter interviewed industry insiders and learned that due to the relatively sufficient production, the price of lake salt and well salt has risen by a certain extent this year, but the increase is not large. "Especially the lake salt in Qinghai, the production is larger, and the price change this year is limited." However, the cost of transporting salt is too high, so it is difficult to transport low-cost local salt to the field. ”

Strong demand is supported by prices

Downstream soda ash, caustic soda soda, including the two alkali industries, the strong demand, superimposed production is reduced, is the main reason for the soaring price of sea salt.

According to the statistics of Baichuan Fuying, in the third quarter of 2021, the evaporation of sea salt in Shandong was low, the total output fell significantly, and the reduction of individual enterprises was outstanding; the sea salt production in North China did not change much compared with the same period last year, and the sea salt production in Northeast Liaoning Province decreased slightly.

In addition, due to the poor sea transport, the amount of imported salt has dropped significantly. Comprehensive customs data analysis: As of January to August 2021, China's industrial salt imports totaled 3.4211 million tons, a decrease of 358,000 tons or 9.47% over last year.

On the demand side, the downstream market continues to support the relative stability of the two alkali enterprises, and the large industrial salt market just needs to maintain stability. Zhao Said that due to the continuous upward trend of the sea salt and mineral salt markets, the downstream willingness to turn to the lake salt market procurement and replenish inventory is expected to increase in the fourth quarter of the lake salt market demand; the sea salt, well salt market demand continues to the current level.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August 2021, the average daily output of soda ash in the country was higher than that of last year. Among them, the national soda ash output in August 2021 was 2.42 million tons, an increase of 43,000 tons over the same month of the previous year, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year. The increase in soda ash production will increase the demand for industrial salts.

Baichuan Fuying expects that in the fourth quarter, the downstream two alkali plants will resume high-load operation, some new projects will be accelerated, and the prices of the two alkalis will rise at a high level, stimulating the high-load operation of existing devices, and the demand for large industrial salt markets will increase steadily.

In terms of price, Baichuan Yingfu expects that under the role of downstream just need support, due to factors such as output and inventory, the price of haiyan market will still have a slight upward trend. There is room for further increase in well salt quotations in Henan and Shandong, and the increase rate may slow down.