The penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries has soared, and the wet phosphoric acid process is expected to become mainstream in the future!
Guosen Securities pointed out that with the rapid release of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the "wet iron phosphate-iron phosphate" process is expected to become the mainstream in the future with lower energy consumption and carbon emissions.
1) Lithium iron phosphate cathode has high safety, outstanding cost performance, and surging penetration
Lithium iron phosphate batteries due to the energy density, low temperature resistance and other aspects of the breakthrough, in the cost performance, safety and convenience more advantages, it is expected that the global sales of new energy vehicles in 2025 more than 20 million, domestic more than 7.5 million.
It is estimated that the global demand for lithium batteries will reach 1790GWh in 2025, the demand for lithium iron phosphate will be about 710GWh, and the optimistic expectation is about 1.22 million tons for iron phosphate.
In 2021-2022, the supply and demand of lithium iron phosphate - iron phosphate are tightly balanced, and the supply and demand tension will gradually ease after 2023, and the long-term production capacity of lithium iron phosphate - iron phosphate will be excessive.
2) Cost is king: the preparation of lithium iron phosphate on the phosphoric acid railway line will become the mainstream process
There are four production routes for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials (LFP): hydrothermal process routes, ferrous oxalate processes, iron oxide processes, and iron phosphate processes. The phosphoric acid railway line has become the mainstream process for the preparation of lithium iron phosphate at a lower cost and a better cost performance.
The mainstream process of iron phosphate precursor includes two types: "iron block + phosphoric acid", "ferrous sulfate + monoammonium phosphate" route.
At present, thermal phosphoric acid dominates the domestic phosphoric acid market, but the purification of wet phosphoric acid production of 1 ton of 100% P2O5 products is 1.21 tons less than the standard coal of traditional thermal phosphoric acid, about 1/3 of the energy consumption of thermal phosphoric acid, wet purification phosphoric acid process can greatly save energy consumption and significant economic benefits, the future wet phosphoric acid in China's phosphoric acid industry production capacity is expected to continue to rise.
In addition, the advantages of wet production of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate are also very numerous. The purification of wet phosphoric acid technology is difficult, and the by-product phosphogypsum problem is difficult to solve, is a common problem faced by iron phosphate enterprises, with "ore-electric phosphorus iron integration" iron phosphate production enterprises will have a core competitive advantage, optimistic about enterprises with mature purification wet phosphoric acid technology.
3) Iron phosphate production enterprises with "ore-electric phosphate-iron integration" will have core competitive advantages
Iron phosphate production enterprises are divided into four categories: (1) lithium iron phosphate cathode production enterprises vertical layout upstream; (2) phosphorus chemical enterprises supporting phosphorus sources; (3) titanium dioxide enterprises supporting iron sources; (4) lithium battery material enterprises equipped with collaborative industries.
From the cost point of view, phosphorus source, iron source cost accounted for about 50%, 10%, a single ton of iron phosphate electricity consumption of about 6000KWh, with "ore electric phosphorus iron integration" iron phosphate production enterprises will have a core cost competitive advantage. Among them, (1) the cost advantage of raw materials is sorted: phosphorus source, iron is better than phosphorus, and iron is better than better than iron. (2) Energy power end cost ranking: self-owned power supply (with hydropower, thermal power plants) is better than low-priced provinces than high-priced provinces。 In 2021, the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode broke out, and the supply of iron phosphate precursors exceeded demand.
With the entry and expansion of various enterprises, the future pattern of iron phosphate products will move from "refinement" to "bulk".
Source: Brokerage Research Report
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