"Virtual" is becoming the key word in the future, and it is becoming more and more intense.
In the second half of 2021, a big "fire" in the metacosm burned all over the world. The global economy has completed several rounds of transition between virtual and real. From the initial optimism of a small number of enterprises and institutions to become today's outlet, can meta-universes carry the banner of new energy, complete a new round of industrial replacement, and become the outlet in the next few years?
I think it's a high probability event.
In fact, careful people may have noticed that after entering 2010, the speed of global business behavior and industry rotation is accelerating, accelerating elimination, accelerated rise, and there is no violation.
When Apple knocked on the door of the mobile Internet with the iPhone, based on smart phones, the world completed the construction of the mobile Internet system in ten years, and there is a trend of expanding to the era of the Internet of Things.
After 2015, the economic model with sharing as the outlet began to sweep the world. From the initial shared travel to the global replication of the Uber model, the outlet spawned by capital completely "ignores" the process of original capital accumulation, and completes the development cycle of shared travel in three or five years.
After that, shared travel began to integrate globally, and after each region left at most two heavyweight companies, shared travel began to end subsidies and began to mature the charging model, although it is not profitable now, but its price has been comparable to that of ordinary taxis.
After sharing travel, shared bicycles have become another new format to replace travel. Starting from the beautiful vision of "solving the last kilometer", the development cycle of shared bicycles is obviously more short, round after round of financing, and for more than a year, the companies that have the right to speak in the shared bicycle market are only Mobike and Ofo.
Unfortunately, because the post-90s Dai Wei did not merge in the way the capital expected, it eventually led to failure, so that even the user's deposit has not been refunded now. Interestingly, Zhu Xiaohu has persuaded several rounds of helpless cash out to leave, compared with other capital, Zhu Xiaohu is the only lucky investor, because he is one of the few venture capital institutions that have withdrawn from the whole body.
After sharing bicycles, the ability of capital to undertake is getting worse and worse, and the funds that can be accommodated by the project are getting smaller and smaller. From the sharing of charging treasures to the so-called Internet coffee, these so-called new formats are based on traditional projects as a carrier, imposing new concepts to hype, luckin coffee's big failure is the most profound case.
At the end of 2019, in the case of no more projects to be invested in by global capital, the tesla concept "turned out", as a new energy vehicle company, Tesla has been the car company with the most shorted times in the United States in the past ten years, and it often hovers on the brink of bankruptcy.
The completion of Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory has given global capital an opportunity, in the case of "production capacity" to be guaranteed, capital began to speculate Tesla, a year of ten times the increase stunned the market, many investment banks and investment institutions stepped up learning began to start from air flips, becoming the most solid fans and protectors of new energy. As funny as it may seem, under the enormity, profitability is the biggest answer.
After two years of speculation, with the blessing of layer after layer of capital, the new energy industry chain has made great progress, from batteries to automatic driving, from parts to vehicles. Li Bin, the founder of Weilai Automobile, recently revealed that the threshold for new energy vehicles has been raised to 40 billion yuan, which means that ordinary players have been blocked out. At least, after Xiaomi announced the construction of the car, its future investment has far exceeded this figure.
From the experience of sharing in the past, the industry catalyzed by capital, the future is overdraft is an indisputable fact, at least from shared travel to Internet coffee, we have not seen these formats subvert the original industry, but the fall of some companies has made the industry a chicken feather.
According to the current trend, in the next two or three years, new energy vehicles will enter a cruel competition period, and the mergers and acquisitions and integration of the industry will enter an accelerated period, which means that the stage of squeezing the bubble will come, and the first to bear the brunt will be Tesla, which is left to time to verify.
These years can be described as Tesla's brilliant moment, constantly expanding its branches while also expanding into other fields.
There are also rumors that Tesla may be eyeing B2C retail e-commerce such as Chaoduoduo app. Under the impact of the Internet tide and the epidemic, the concept of low-cost good things has long been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, the original price of thousands of luxury goods, tide brands can no longer attract emerging users, and the main base price retail tide duoduo and other platforms began to receive more people's attention, many 200 or so Adi, Chanel attracted millions of young people into the tide of more crazy robbery, perhaps this is the social embodiment of rational consumption upgrade.
At present, the profit space for investing in new energy is decreasing, although the future prospects are broad, but there is no breakthrough in battery technology and autonomous driving technology, which means that capital may recede, then finding the next outlet will become an inevitable.
Therefore, I judge that the metacosm will replace new energy as the next outlet, and it will continue to accelerate. In fact, we can get a glimpse of the trend from Facebook's renaming "Meta".
In the past two years, Facebook's position in the world has been very embarrassing, and the penalty of consecutive years has made Facebook investors a little afraid. But since April 2020, despite Facebook's problems, its situation has begun to improve, until the market value quietly exceeded a trillion US dollars, and the capital did not realize it in hindsight.
Zuckerberg has said: "The metacosm is the next frontier, and from now on, we will put the metacosm first, not Facebook first."
In the past six months, many capitals have begun to idle from the metacosm, and the situation is exactly the same as that of new energy at that time. The future has come, but it has only begun to become popular, and the growth rate of the metaverse will exceed the imagination of the public