As we all know, every year from New Year's Day to the Spring Festival, this time ushered in the annual peak consumption season, as the weather becomes colder, enterprises in advance stock, so the market price of meat will gradually rise, rice noodles, corn market will also improve.
However, the market that should have ushered in the peak consumption season, its market is not too good, pig prices have fallen one after another, corn can not afford to fall, which makes farmers headaches, seeing that the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, pig prices, corn and save?
01, pig prices "9 consecutive declines"
The pig market in 2021 can be described as very tragic, the pig has fallen by 10 yuan / kg, a decline of 55%, and the profits of farmers have also been greatly reduced. With the weakening of consumer demand, after the New Year's Day, pig prices have accelerated their decline again, from 16.04 yuan / kg to 13.99 yuan / kg today, creating a "9 consecutive declines", with a cumulative decline of 12.78%.
Watching the pig price continue to decline, coupled with the weakening of pork consumption, the pig market has stagnated, and now the national average price has fallen back to the 6 yuan era, which makes pig farmers sad. It is reported that at present, a standard pig is sold to lose about 200-250 yuan.
Is the pig market really not saved? In fact, it is not, although the pig price has fallen significantly today, the northeast pig price has ushered in a red and higher, which is obviously a very positive signal.
Judging from the monitoring data of 28 places, the decline in the north has decreased significantly, such as the market in north China is 13.6-14.1 yuan / kg, except for the Jinji and Hebei, other places are stable; the northwest fell 0.1-0.3 yuan, the mainstream is 12.3-13.4 yuan / kg; the northeast market rebounded 0.1-0.4 yuan, and the quotations of the three places are 13.7 yuan / kg.
In this way, as the price of pigs continues to fall, the loss of pig farmers has increased, and everyone has begun to sell at a high price, and many people are "broken cans and broken", simply no longer sell pigs, hoping to gamble on the future market. At present, this strategy of pig farmers is very successful, the decline in pigs has decreased, and the local stability has risen.
In East China, the market fell by 0.1-0.3 yuan, and the mainstream was 14-15.2 yuan / kg, which shows that the local market is still not too good, the main reason is still sluggish consumption, and the demand is sluggish. Central China fell 0.25-0.35 yuan, the mainstream is 14-14.4 yuan / kg, the region fell more.
In the southwest, the market fell by 0.15-0.35 yuan, the mainstream was 12.4-13.7 yuan / kg, and its market has moved closer to the northwest, and even the northeast pig price is not comparable, which shows how depressed the market is. South China fell by 0.2-0.3 yuan, the mainstream price was 14.5-16.6 yuan / kg, and its pig price was not satisfactory.
Overall, the price difference between the north and the south is getting smaller and smaller, and most pig farmers are in the middle of losses. The sluggish pig market is mainly due to sluggish consumer demand, not much pork, more leftovers from wholesalers, and then reluctance to receive goods, and more losses of slaughtering enterprises, and then continue to reduce prices.
However, now that the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, the pig market is not as good as expected, which makes many pig farmers have the idea of breaking the jar and breaking the bar, and begin to reduce the number of pigs, especially in the northern region, so the pig price market began to improve.
The northeast pig price has always been the barometer of the national pig market, and it is believed that with the rise of the northeast market, it will also drive the pig prices in other places to rise. At present, the pig will go higher next, and the mainstream price is 7-8 yuan / catty.
02, corn is in crisis
At the same time as pig prices fell, the corn market also began to decline, as to why, in fact, the reduction in demand for pig feed is also one of the reasons. Coupled with the lack of production capacity of corn enterprises, the operating rate is low, and the demand for corn is not high, it is difficult for the market to rise.
From today's market point of view, although the number of vehicles arriving in Shandong has been reduced to 648 cars, which is 271 cars less than the previous day, the corn market has not ushered in an upturn, and the number of companies that have fallen has increased, and 8 companies have fallen, with a cumulative decline of 0.2-0.5 points.
For example, Ensign Industrial fell by 0.5 points, the quotation was 1.43 yuan / kg; Tianli Pharmaceutical fell 0.4 points, the quotation was 1.339 yuan / jin; Fuyang Bio fell to 1.367 yuan / jin; Shengtai Pharmaceutical fell to 1.333 yuan / jin.
North China market has also fallen, such as NingJin Yufeng fell 1 point, the quotation is 1.31 yuan / jin; Da Cao Zhuang Jinyu fell 1 point, the quotation is 1.32 yuan / jin; Guangyu starch fell 0.6 points, the quotation is 1.324 yuan / jin.
The main reason for the decline in the market in Shandong and North China is that the company has gradually completed the preparation of goods, the demand for corn is not high, and the market has begun to decline. However, due to "health incidents", freight is restricted, so the decline is not too large.
In the northeast region, on the contrary, many enterprises began to rise, such as Suihua Haotian and Cargill Biochemical rose by 0.5 points, the quotation was 1.22 yuan / jin; COFCO Gongzhuling rose by 1 point, the quotation was 1.24 yuan / jin; Heilongjiang Yipin rose by 1 point, the quotation was 1.18 yuan / jin.
The northeast market is rising, first of all, the tide grain has been listed, which is now nearing the end, and the temptation of dry food to enterprises is greater, and enterprises have begun to raise prices in order to buy dry food. Secondly, the arrival of local cold air, limited transportation, farmers have a certain idea of selling, so enterprises have begun to raise prices.
At present, the demand for the construction of warehouses in Shenzhen enterprises is not large, but if the market is low, enterprises are still willing to buy more corn. For feed enterprises, the current stocking is basically completed, and the procurement of them is not large.
If the next grain sales continue to increase, the corn market is still not too good, but overall, the market is difficult to fall years ago, so the corn market is generally stable, it is recommended that you can postpone the sale of grain.
In general, the northeast pig price and corn market are higher, and the impact on the overall situation is not large. But if the consumer demand is large years ago, there are many opportunities for pig prices to rise, which in turn will also drive corn higher.