Looking forward to 2022| Cui Dongshu of the Association of Rides: The growth pressure of high-end independent brands is increasing

In the complex and changeable year of 2021, problems such as rising raw material prices and chip supply cuts have brought no small challenges to the auto market. Despite this, the mainland auto market still played a beautiful turnaround battle, achieving a double increase in the production-to-sales ratio, ending a three-year decline since 2018.

Entering 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30%, and the foreign equity ratio of passenger cars and the restriction of joint ventures will not exceed two, how will the automobile market perform in the coming year, and what new changes and challenges will be ushered in in 2022?

In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, said in an interview with the Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter that the domestic automobile market will perform well in 2021, especially the growth of new energy vehicles is obvious, and the substantial growth of women's cars is also a major driving reason. For the policy adjustment in 2022, the mainland's independent brands have sufficient ability to cope with the cancellation of the joint venture share ratio restriction because of the advantages of new energy vehicles.

Behind the growth of new energy vehicles, women's purchasing power has been greatly released

Beijing News Shell Finance: In your opinion, what are the bright performances of the domestic auto market in 2021?

Cui Dongshu: First of all, new energy vehicles have shown explosive growth under the epidemic, and secondly, independent brands are also highlights, such as Geely and other car companies have reached a more leading position, and the main independent brand position has been greatly improved.

Beijing News Shell Finance: How to view the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market?

Cui Dongshu: There are three reasons for the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, the first is that the products are extremely rich, the second is that the consumer's recognition of the products has increased significantly, and the third should be the improvement of personalized travel under the influence of the epidemic.

In addition, we think that the significant increase in women's use of cars is also a big reason. New energy vehicles are better combined with female drivers, easy to open, more fashionable appearance, and more suitable prices, so it has brought about a significant release of women's purchasing power.

At present, the proportion of female drivers has reached 1/3, which is a very high number, which can promote the explosive growth of the second car in the family. The cars pushed by mainland independent brands are mainly women's cars, whether it is Wuling Hongguang mini, Euler black cat, white cat, are all well grasped in this market.

Beijing News Shell Finance: In 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30%, and will be terminated at the end of the year. How does this policy change affect the development of the new energy automobile industry?

Cui Dongshu: There will be no obvious impact, because the market demand for new energy vehicles is relatively large now, and the subsidy time is extended to the end of the year, and the impact of subsidy decline should not be large.

As for the general development trend in the future, I think it should continue to grow and maintain a high growth rate.

Beijing News Shell Finance: What opportunities and challenges will the new energy vehicle market face in 2022?

Cui Dongshu: We remain optimistic about new energy vehicles in 2022, and new energy vehicles will reach a scale of nearly 6 million in 2022. In particular, medium and entry-level models still have a lot of room for development, and high-end Tesla will also perform stronger.

In terms of challenges, it is mainly the question of whether high-end independent brands can be sustainable. Now, the growth pressure faced by high-end independent brands is increasing, because the consumption power of high-end consumers has declined, and whether high-end cars can maintain stable growth is a problem that needs attention.

Beijing News Shell Finance: "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" mentioned that by 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicles will reach 20%. Based on the current growth trend, will this goal be achieved ahead of schedule?

Cui Dongshu: At present, the main consideration is the 2030 target, the 2025 target may be accelerated to achieve, and then there is still a process of mutual coordination, and the tax and other preferential policies for new energy vehicles will be gradually reduced.

The joint venture share ratio is "loosened", and the phenomenon of sole proprietorship will be less

Beijing News Shell Finance: Chip supply is tight, raw material price increases will not be alleviated in 2022?

Cui Dongshu: The chip crisis should improve significantly at the end of the second quarter of this year, and the raw material problem should also be alleviated as the epidemic improves. Overall, in 2022, the sales volume of the automobile market will further increase, the performance of the joint venture brand will further recover, and the growth rate may be higher than that in 2021.

In terms of industry, the lack of core last year was more serious, and the luxury car market will further resume growth.

Beijing News Shell Finance: On January 1, 2022, the restriction on the joint venture share ratio of passenger cars was officially abolished, what is the impact of this policy on the development of domestic automobiles? Do independent brands have sufficient capacity to deal with the removal of joint venture share restrictions?

Cui Dongshu: It won't have much impact. During the period of intense changes in the industry, joint ventures also face greater uncertainties, and some companies will be more cautious. Market competition is still the main body of enterprises, and the impact of equity changes to actual market competition changes is slow.

In addition, independent brands have sufficient capacity to cope with the cancellation of the joint venture share ratio restriction because of the advantages of new energy vehicles.

Beijing News Shell Finance: Will the development pattern of foreign car companies in China change, and will there be a large number of increased holdings and sole proprietorships?

Cui Dongshu: The development pattern of foreign car companies in China will change, and the reason for this is the change in product competitiveness. In the future, there will be a large increase in the holdings of individual enterprises, but the phenomenon of sole proprietorship will be less, and the competitiveness of enterprises after sole ownership of commercial vehicles will not change much.

As for the Chinese market and Chinese brands, there will be no obvious impact, and China's independent competitiveness will be greatly improved.

Beijing News shell financial reporter Song Meilu Editor Wang Jinyu Proofreader Jia Ning