Hot discussion: How are the US stocks going tonight? Can Tesla and Apple lead the rebound?

U.S. stocks continue to have a tough start to 2022, market volatility has become the new normal, and the CME Syn Fear Index VIX has surged more than 50% in the past week, once again approaching the 30 mark.

Why did the US stock market start to fluctuate after two years of sharp rise? CiCC Research Report believes that at present, the decline in US stocks is the market's knee-jump reaction to the Fed's policy sharp turn and its potential impact. Although the current valuation of US stocks is not cheap, it has been basically reasonable after the recent correction, and some technical indicators such as oversold have even been more extreme, but the more critical credit spreads have not risen significantly, and are still significantly lower than the level at the end of 2018.

It is worth noting that the US stock market has a lot to watch this week. On Tuesday, the first Fed interest rate meeting of the year will open, the news of policy path expectations may push market volatility to a new peak, can the three major stock indexes with technical critical points turn the tide this time?

In addition, with technology stocks experiencing a sell-off at the beginning of the year, this week's earnings season is more interesting. Streaming giant Netflix has been hit by poor guidelines for subscription data, and the market is waiting for Microsoft, Apple and Tesla to turn things around.

With the first Fed interest rate week of the year approaching, what will Powell say?

After last month's minutes and the latest statements by several Fed officials, the market is ready for a rate hike in March. But the recent volatility in the market comes from the speculation that the Fed may take a move that has not been done in more than two decades - to start the current tightening cycle with a direct interest rate hike of 50 basis points.

The main goal of the meeting is to pave the way for a rate hike and balance sheet cut in March, with Powell likely to provide more information after the meeting on the minutes of last December's Fed meeting, which hinted at a faster, earlier balance sheet reduction.

Some institutions believe that after the soaring 2-year US Treasury yield hit the US stock market, there are about two situations in the US stock market. Scenario 1: U.S. stocks rebounded after this week's Fed interest rate meeting. Scenario two: This week's Fed gives a more hawkish signal, which means that the US stock market may only be in the middle of the adjustment at present, and the probability of the situation is higher for the time being.

Most of the 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg between Jan. 14 and 19 expect the Fed to use its January 25-26 policy meeting to herald a 25 basis point hike on March, with only two expecting a surprise 50 basis point hike in March to counter soaring price pressures.

Can tech stocks rebound? Apple, Microsoft and Tesla put up the list this week

This week will usher in the earnings of a number of US stock technology giants, with Netflix due to unsatisfactory financial results, the stock price plunged more than 20%, Microsoft will be on Tuesday, Tesla on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday to release earnings, nasdaq trend is facing a big test.

From the intraday perspective, large technology stocks fell the most in the US stock sector last week. U.S. streaming giant Netflix took the lead in kicking off the earnings season of large technology stocks, but after announcing the results, it was "unfavorable", closing down 21.79% on Friday, while FATNG star technology stocks recorded the worst weekly performance since the epidemic.

Loup Ventures co-founder Gene Munster said the tech sector will remain in a state of tension until weighted tech stocks such as Apple and Microsoft report earnings.

Tesla's earnings report is about to be announced, and the performance has become a common expectation, and most analysts have raised their profit expectations, giving a maximum price target of $1400. The key point of interest is Musk's speech at the teleconference meeting, which is expected to lay the product line map for the next one or two years.

For Apple's earnings report, because the company's executives have given a preventive shot against the impact of "missing cores" on the company's sales, the market is more concerned about the company's forward-looking outlook: business expectations for the next fiscal quarter and the progress of the company's new business.

Recently, the voice of bearish US stock technology stocks has been one after another, and Luca Paolini, chief strategist of Pictet Asset Management, said:

At some point, the impact of the tech sector's performance on other sectors is inevitable. Once the mood is hit by losses, then everything else goes down.

However, some analysts are still optimistic about the prospects of the US stock technology sector. UBS said that the strengthening of the us dollar may be one of the reasons for the decline in the profit margins of some large technology companies, and the future earnings growth prospects of the technology sector are expected to remain more positive.