Text | Talking about AI, the author | Zheng drove
If Tesla is the ceiling in the grand war of the automobile industrial revolution, there is a high probability that no one in the industry is unconvinced, if there is, then BYD can be regarded as the number one.
According to the data of the Association, in the retail sales ranking of new energy manufacturers in 2021, BYD has taken the first place with an annual sales volume of nearly 600,000, an increase of 221.3% year-on-year. On the other hand, Tesla China has just broken through half of BYD's retail sales, and it is still not easy to shake BYD's "throne" in China's new energy market sales data.
On the other side of the score is the growing circle of friends. According to the Tianyancha APP, BYD Toyota Electric Vehicle Technology Co., Ltd. was established as early as March 25, 2020. It is reported that Bydir Toyota is responsible for the design of toyota's models, and BYD is responsible for the three-electric system.
Not only that, recently, BYD and the United States autonomous driving technology company Euro jointly released a pure electric driverless delivery vehicle, in the cooperation, BYD will be responsible for vehicle development, vehicle testing and manufacturing, while providing blade batteries, motors, electronic control and human-computer interaction and other core first-level assembly components.
In this era of redefining the automobile, on the one hand, sales are far ahead, on the other hand, cooperation is thriving, BYD seems to be carrying out an unstoppable automotive industry revolution, but is the truth really so glamorous?
In the wave of new energy, BYD's "one-legged revolution"
In the era of fuel vehicles, car companies have an iron law, that is, the core power technology system must be self-developed and produced, and corporate genes are a rather metaphysical word, but perhaps it is this genetic power that makes BYD have the magic of self-production in the era of electrification.
Electrified muscular left leg
In the face of the dilemma of global "lack of core", Wang Chuanfu, known as the "technology maniac", once said, "The chip is not made by God." Wang Chuanfu did not brag, as of now, BYD's new energy vehicle business has included vehicle research and development and manufacturing, three electric systems, chips and other parts research and development and manufacturing, in addition to tires and glass, BYD is basically involved in the entire industrial chain of the car in the business.
For example, its self-developed blade battery has become a symbol of BYD's new energy vehicles, which can also provide derivative marketing value for its product strength, so as to endorse products with technology.
Looking further, this supply chain potential can also be released in two very important links.
On the one hand, as BYD's own supply chain scale cost and technology iteration advantages continue to grow competitiveness, its future will be expected to bring a new growth curve to the brand in many links of the supply chain, occupy a vertical track market position, and become a Samsung in the car manufacturing industry.
On the other hand, its supply chain advantages are also being amplified during the epidemic period, just like BMW beat its old rival Mercedes-Benz with 2.522 million vehicles last year, and once again sat in the first place of luxury brands after a gap of six years, a very important reason is that BMW has predicted the layout on the chip.
Nowadays, many car companies cannot deliver a large number of orders because of chip problems, and self-research can undoubtedly make BYD's products more balanced with supply and demand in the supply chain, so that its overall anti-risk ability is stronger.
It is not difficult to find that the instinct of self-development and self-creation seems to have been integrated into BYD's genes, and in the first half of the revolution of the automobile industry, BYD has a great foresight to forge the three-electric system into its core competitiveness, which is probably why Toyota, Nuro and other companies are willing to establish cooperation with BYD.
The rich technical reserve of electrification is undoubtedly a strong left leg when BYD rushes to the automotive industrial revolution.
But since the left leg is mentioned, there is still a butt here. After all, in this automotive industry revolution, the first half is electrified, the second half is intelligent, BYD's electrified left leg is trained to be extremely strong, how about the intelligent right leg?
If it is said that in terms of electrification, BYD, as a traditional car company, also has self-developed self-produced genes to exert residual heat, then in terms of intelligence, BYD's self-developed and self-produced progress is not so silky.
Intelligent weak right leg
In fact, BYD's self-research achievements in intelligent cockpit and assisted driving are still there, such as the DiPilot advanced intelligent driving assistance system developed by BYD Intelligent Networking Center, as well as the underlying systems such as BYD OS and e platform 3.0, but its intelligent problems are mainly reflected in two aspects, one is the lack of first-mover advantage, and the other is that the technical strength is doubtful.
First of all, taking BYD's intelligent benchmark model Han as an example, in terms of smart cockpit, according to some BYD riders, until August 2020, this model can not achieve remote OTA, and can only be upgraded through the owner to drive the car to the 4S shop queue or BYD send staff to upgrade.
You know, in the year, Tesla released 11 versions of OTA upgrades, almost once a month there is a software iteration of the vehicle, according to Tesla data, its Autopilot technology in the year can achieve an average of about 7.38 million kilometers before there will be a traffic accident.
On the other side, among the new domestic forces, as of June 2020, the independent driving range of Xiaopeng G3's automatic parking and ACC system has exceeded 25 million kilometers, and its XPILOT is also constantly upgrading and evolving.
It can be seen that BYD's intelligence has not occupied the industry opportunity like electrification.
In terms of BYD's technical strength, in fact, we can glimpse it from the secondary market. As of press time, BYD's market value is about $104 billion, and Tesla has a market value of about $922 billion. Some Wall Street analysts said that 60% of Tesla's valuation comes from software revenue, insurance, charging services and other fields, so does THIS 60% valuation by BYD have it? It's worth putting a question mark on.
Then again, in fact, from the fuel vehicle to make a fortune of car companies, intelligent transformation objectively there is a difficulty of elephant turnaround, so there are shortcomings are understandable, after all, the current embrace of cooperation in intelligence has become the choice of more and more traditional car companies, such as Ti Xiaokang, BAIC, Changan have cooperated with Huawei in new cars.
Even SAIC Motor, which proposed to take the soul of intelligence into its own hands, has also begun to invest in research, and in November last year, it led the investment in Momenta, a start-up technology company for autonomous driving, and actively embraced cooperation.
Let's look at the current circle of friends of BYD, in fact, whether it is Toyota or Nuro, these cooperation are actually eyeing BYD's electrification technology.
A noteworthy action is that at the end of last year, BYD and Momenta set up a joint venture company "Dipai Zhixing" to help BYD's intelligent driving, but it is not difficult for us to find that BYD, which started early in electrification, seems to be somewhat left behind in the action of embracing technical cooperation.
On the whole, perhaps BYD is expected to become the Samsung of the electric vehicle industry in the future, but if it wants to become Huawei, in the face of Tesla and other players who have a first-mover advantage in intelligence and are still growing and advancing, they still have a long way to catch up in intelligence.
Market: The internal and external troubles in front of the throne
Internal worries: Is the base camp market still stable?
If it is said that before Tesla entered the Chinese market, BYD is the leader of domestic electric vehicles, this is probably not ambiguous, after all, this leader identity actually has inevitability, the former low-end new energy market is not crowded, three electric technology as the core competitiveness, BYD can be said to have really grabbed the first-mover advantage of entering new energy.
Today, although BYD's sales are still growing strongly, from a long-term perspective, in the face of today's sales that are still leading, BYD is really leading, but it is not completely leading.
Specifically, in the past few years, such as Tesla, Wei Xiaoli, and more emerging new forces, have always been fighting in the high-end market, and there are not many competitors who can pose a threat to BYD in the sinking market.
However, from 2021 onwards, this bydir's taoyuan has been targeted by more and more new forces. The achievements of dark horse Nezha naturally need not be said, the lowest price of ET5 that Weilai will deliver this year has dropped to the range of 200,000, and the price of the new electric vehicles that Tesla will launch in the future will also be in the range of 100,000-200,000.
At that time, BYD, whether it is about 200,000 Han and Tang, or about 100,000-150,000 Qin and Song, the main car will usher in more and more players who confront it. At that point, will BYD be able to maintain today's sales? Judging from the current market trend, there is a fog in front of it.
External troubles: Have you grasped the opportunity of high-end?
In the years of joint ventures and imported cars, BYD has completely gained a foothold in the sinking market with the playing style of "rural encirclement of the city", but it has also taken root in the sinking market and put on the shackles of insufficient brand power for BYD.
In the era of fuel vehicles, for car companies that start from the low end, the middle and high end are often a distant dream. This is mainly because car companies in the era of fuel vehicles want to shape brand power, the standard system is solidified and the time cost is high. Mercedes-Benz is synonymous with luxury, BMW is synonymous with control, in fact, these traditional car companies have built a solid barrier for themselves with a hundred years.
However, Tan Qing said that AI believes that with the continuous re-education of Tesla, Wei Xiaoli and other players in the high-end market in recent years, today can be said to be an excellent opportunity for independent car companies to take root in the sinking market from the independent car companies.
Wei Xiaoli, the three new forces can establish their own high-end brand power in just a few years, explaining to us that the car companies in this era, with time and seniority to precipitate brand products is no longer the first meaning, the product itself, is the symbol of brand power.
So how to do a good job of the product itself? In fact, it is the two legs of intelligence and electrification. Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, said in September last year that "the second half of the automobile industry will focus on intelligent change", but at present, IT HAS risen early in electrification and caught up with the late set of intelligentization.
In the face of the excellent opportunity to impact the high-end, the future BYD undoubtedly needs to make up for its own shortcomings in intelligence, which is an indispensable element of its impact on the high-end. It will also be a key battle for its reconstruction of brand power.
For BYD, which does not have the advantage of intelligent first-mover, how to attack the mid-to-high-end city where Tesla and new forces are located? This is a question that it urgently needs to answer.
BYD's white moonlight, the cinnabar mole of traditional car companies
BYD's somewhat embarrassing intelligent transformation is actually the epitome of most traditional car companies facing the challenges of industry change, how can traditional car companies get out of the quagmire of intelligence? Maybe we can find some answers in the industry.
From the perspective of industry segmentation, the current intelligent car has two power directions, one is the intelligent cockpit, and the other is automatic driving.
How should traditional car companies grasp the soul of the smart cockpit? As another giant in the independent car company, Geely gave a somewhat open answer, that is, to enter the smart machine track.
Recently, Caijing reported that Xingji Times, a mobile phone company under Geely Group, is in contact with Meizu to negotiate an acquisition and is currently in the due diligence stage.
In the face of a huge change in the automotive industry at the moment, Geely turned into a smart machine track, at first glance it seems difficult to understand, but in tan Qing said AI, to put it bluntly, Geely does not lack vehicle manufacturing technology, just like Xiaomi does not lack software research and development technology, the real lack of both, in fact, are what the other party is good at. Geely's entry into the smart machine track from the software technology level, in fact, has a very important value for automotive intelligence.
Zeng Xuezhong, president of the mobile phone department of Xiaomi Group, also said recently, "Lei Jun has put forward requirements for the mobile phone department, that is, to become a technology middle platform at the level of Xiaomi Group, which can incubate and drive some innovative businesses, including talent and technology transportation for the automobile business."
It is not difficult to find that in the intelligent transformation of the car, Geely's layout of the mobile phone business is not an "empty cannon", and the layout of the smart machine track brings software technology reserves to the company, which may be a sharp weapon to meet the battle of the smart cockpit.
However, the layout of traditional car companies in intelligence is ultimately an open answer, after all, even if the theory is sexy, it is not enough to hang teeth in front of sales, and the current Geely, whether it is extreme krypton or geometry, sales seem to be not satisfactory. As for whether BYD, which insists on self-research in this regard, can get out of the quagmire in the future, it still needs to be tested by time.
In terms of market, the smart cockpit is more of a B-end business, and the customers are mainly OEMs. On the other hand, autonomous driving is more diverse, which can provide L2 technology for OEMs, or provide unmanned solutions for logistics, ports, mining areas and other scenarios, such as Robotaxi, which allows technology companies to directly face the C-end.
Therefore, due to the greater prospect of market size, the number of start-up players on the current autonomous driving track is considerable.
Tan Qing said that AI believes that this phenomenon for car companies, especially traditional car companies, may not be a good thing from the perspective of "body and soul theory", after all, the track is crowded, and it is difficult for traditional car companies to find their own advantages in automatic driving, but from the existing supply side of developed automatic driving technology, these start-up technology companies are also a shortcut for traditional car companies to catch up with new forces.
For traditional car companies, it may wish to take the smart cockpit as their soul and actively seek cooperation with autonomous driving technology companies, which will be a solution that can not only retain part of the soul, but also quickly catch up with new forces on the road of intelligence.
After all, for traditional car companies, the soul is important, but in the face of today's car-making army from all directions, there is undoubtedly not much time left for them to build the city wall.
Just like in the first half of electrification, when the BBA was still building the wall with oil in the yard, Teslas had quietly stepped into their homes.
In the next few years, making up for the shortcomings of intelligence will no longer be an forward task for traditional car companies, but must be put into action, and racing against time will be one of the most important keywords in front of traditional car companies.