Reporters Gao Peitong and Zhao Yi reported in Guangzhou
As of February 23, 2022, CATL New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "CATL", 300750.SZ) has evaporated its market value by about 0.40 trillion yuan in the past three months, which has made it attract much attention in public opinion.
"Its rise is also bold, and its death is also abrupt", this sentence from the "Zuo Zhuan", the first half of which applies to the Ningde era. In only about 2 years, the market value of the Ningde era climbed from less than 0.2 trillion yuan to a maximum of 1.61 trillion yuan, once rushing into the top three of the A stock market value list and was named "Ning Wang". At the top of the market value, whether the "moat" of the Ningde era is deep enough is increasingly "tortured" by the market.
"China Business Daily" reporter noted that overall, the power battery as the upstream of the new energy vehicle industry chain, its vigorous development and the domestic emphasis on the new energy automobile industry is inseparable, since 2020, with the trend of global electrification further rapid confirmation, superimposed in 2021 new energy vehicles into a period of rapid growth, the domestic power battery industry has long been developed for many years by capital optimistic.
"The definitive opportunity for the new energy industry has arrived." In December 2021, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, publicly stated that he judged that the growth of the battery market will soon move towards the TWh era.
But it is worth noting that the development pattern of the power battery industry is still facing some changes and uncertainties, with tesla's self-made battery mass production, car companies into the game to build batteries has become a trend? What are the barriers for power battery manufacturers? Is the introduction of two and three supplies by car companies an inevitable result of the maturity of the industrial chain? Many issues have been concerned by the industry, and the reporter recently wrote to the Ningde era on related issues, but the other party did not respond.
"Game" with car companies
Will the head car company definitely enter the power battery, or even self-made batteries?
Different people in the automotive industry have given different answers to this question. A record of the February 2022 institutional survey of the Ningde era obtained by the reporter shows that the Ningde era said that different customer attitudes are different, the new forces of car manufacturing will focus more on the intelligent part, batteries, motors, electronic control and other three electric systems to the supplier to do, some traditional car companies will be "chassis + battery" as their own competitiveness.
The reporter noted that before the electrification track was rapidly further established in 2020, there was no shortage of cases of car companies making batteries, including Daimler and Geely, who had spent a lot of money to cut into the track, but excluding BYD, which started with batteries in the early days, there were almost no successful cases, Nissan Motor's original power battery business company AESC (once the best-selling supplier of the electric vehicle type Leaf), and the company was sold to China's Envision Group in 2019.
However, with the further establishment of global electrified tracks since 2020, the wind direction of the market is also changing.
Do the new forces of car manufacturing really care more about intelligence and do not care about the right to speak of the battery? Tesla is giving its own answer. On February 19, 2022, Tesla announced on the official social platform that it had produced its 1 millionth 4680 battery in January, and according to Tesla's disclosed schedule, the 4680 battery will achieve mass production in 2022, and will be used for the Model Y model in the first quarter of 2022.
"From the current situation, Tesla is the world's first vehicle company to successfully cut into the production of battery cells." Zhu Yulong, who has worked in the field of new energy vehicles for more than 10 years and founder of Automotive Electronic Design, wrote an article.
Zhu Yulong believes that Tesla is borrowing the strong ability of self-developed self-supplied batteries to game suppliers, he said, "Tesla's battery strategy is to take large demand as a chip, on the one hand, through self-production of 4680, gradually reduce costs; on the other hand, mobilize external supplier resources to meet the requirements of vehicle manufacturing in terms of price and production capacity." Tesla poses as a production agent, which is a game chip. In addition, when communicating with reporters, Liu Ming, who is the technical leader of a power manufacturer and has been in the industry for more than 10 years, also expressed similar views.
Volkswagen, the head car company, is also cutting into self-made batteries. In March 2021, Volkswagen also demonstrated the planning of self-made batteries in the first "Power Day", hoping to launch a "standard battery cell" with intelligent technology by 2023. Another form of the game is the introduction of two and three offerings. From the perspective of installed capacity data, starting from October 2021, Xiaopeng Automobile has introduced China New China Aviation in addition to the existing Ningde era and EWELL lithium energy suppliers.
The "King of Ning" of the Era
Can some head car companies build batteries if they want to build batteries? In other words, what is the "moat" of power battery manufacturers?
From the perspective of the actual power battery pattern, in the face of the surging wave of new energy changes, the battery that occupies an important position in the power system is currently mainly controlled by the third-party supplier, in contrast, in the era of fuel vehicles, the head of traditional car companies often hold the core technology of the engine. The current reality seems to indicate that suppliers have more advantages than car companies.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association of Automobile Associations, looks at the problem more from the perspective of car companies, and he believes that with the entry into the era of new energy vehicles, the automobile industry has stepped into the field of electrochemistry from the mechanical field, and the power battery as a "foreign product" will inevitably occupy a dominant position by the original battery manufacturers in the short term.
Wang Xiang, who is in charge of market analysis at a foreign battery manufacturer, emphasized policy factors when communicating with reporters. Retrospectively, in March 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formulated the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Specification Conditions", and subsequently issued a list that meets the specification conditions, equipped with power batteries that enter the relevant list directory, car companies can enjoy new energy vehicle subsidies, and the relevant list policy lasts for about 4 years, during which time, domestic battery manufacturers develop rapidly.
CATL's own technology research and development capabilities, operational capabilities and market judgment also play a vital role. So, with the rapid confirmation of the electrified track in recent years, the dividend of track conversion is gradually fading, can the Ningde era maintain about 50% of the domestic market share?
Fan Yongjun, secretary general of the Chengdu New Energy Vehicle Application Promotion Association, said in communication with reporters, combined with the development of fuel vehicles, that the early development of large traditional car factories is not necessarily their own engines and gearboxes, but in the end, most of the surviving car companies use self-supply, he believes that Tesla and other car companies used the form of outsourcing in the early days, but they are bound to build a core parts supply system that they can control, but the current ability is not enough to supply themselves, or the center of gravity is not above.
However, according to Li Feng, who has long been concerned about the development of the lithium battery industry, the head car company's self-made battery is facing the problem of how to balance the risk.
The source of risk, on the one hand, is that the power battery belongs to the heavy asset industry and has a large investment; on the other hand, even if it enters the market, the battery made by itself may not have a higher cost performance. "The battery is still in the iteration period, it must be invested for a long time, and the direction (including lithium iron phosphate, ternary lithium, solid-state batteries, etc.) may be wrong." A battery industry observer said that once the car company invests in the wrong direction, it means that the investment is adrift.
Wang Zidong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, also emphasized the risk of car companies making batteries at the moment, believing that many car companies' current attitude towards power batteries is "looking at flowers in the fog", and it is impossible for cars in the era of fuel vehicles to use engines, but in the era of new energy vehicles, power batteries have been iterating, and what batteries to use in the future is not clear, and the risk of rushing into the game is too big.
Efforts to integrate upstream
CATL currently has a market share of about 50% in China, how to maintain such a high market share?
Lin Daoyong, who has been working in the battery industry chain for about 20 years, is currently the general manager of Shanghai Yiding New Material Technology Co., Ltd., and in 2021, for nearly half a year, he is stationed on the lithium mine lithium production line in Tibet and Qinghai, according to his observation of the upstream, due to the shortage of upstream raw materials, the current power battery manufacturers "to ensure supply is to ensure production capacity, to ensure production capacity is to ensure market share."
Taking the price of lithium carbonate, the raw material of the cathode of the power battery, as an example, he said that the price of lithium carbonate in early 2021 was about 50,000 to 60,000 yuan / ton, and by February 21, 2022, the price soared to about 460,000 yuan / ton. Why is the price increase so high? Lin Daoyong explained that the expansion cycle of the power battery production line is about 6 to 12 months, but the expansion cycle of the ore takes at least 2 to 3 years, and the sharp increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2021 will lead to an imbalance between supply and demand in the upstream.
At present, with "guaranteeing supply" as the main theme, the Ningde era has its own advantages.
From the perspective of the actual layout, the power battery giants represented by the Ningde era have continuously extended their capital tentacles to upstream material suppliers, and even opened the pace of buying ore. In August 2020, CATL launched a securities investment plan with a total of up to 19 billion yuan to promote the strategic layout of globalization and ensure the supply of key resources in the industry, which shocked the market for a while.
Insiders from the Ningde era agree that the company integrates and compresses the profits of upstream material suppliers with technical penetration and scale advantages, and grasps the strong bargaining power of the industrial chain, such as cathode materials, which rely on the series of companies acquired in the early stage to form independent research and development and provide some ternary precursor capabilities, and the suppliers are mainly foundry; in terms of electrolyte, Ningde times provides the core formula of electrolyte, and then the suppliers do the same.
In Li Feng's view, the first-mover advantage and technical advantage of head power battery manufacturers are being transformed into large-scale advantages and are reflected in manufacturing and supply chain integration.
A person in charge of an upstream raw material manufacturer said in the communication that in the context of the high market share of the power battery head manufacturer, the upstream material manufacturer will often give the head manufacturer the best business policy in the negotiation, the head manufacturer can press the product price to the price of the peer loss by virtue of the large-scale cost reduction ability and the amount of funds, and many power battery companies are currently not sufficient funds to expand production capacity, and the ability to penetrate into the upstream investment in the short term is far less than that of the head power battery manufacturer.
Liu Ming further said that power battery manufacturers through capital, technology, etc. to the upstream penetration, and the integration of upstream to finally achieve the cost reduction of power batteries, is the inevitable development of the industry, he agrees with the current head manufacturers have a stronger bargaining power, in fact, according to the information he got, the industry has been difficult to digest the upstream material price increase, has been delayed or abandoned some car orders.
Li Feng Wang Xiang Liu Ming is a pseudonym