Interface News Gas Man 2022-02-26 23:35
Reporter | Hou Ruining
"Yesterday, the purchase price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at a power plant in Hunan exceeded 10,000 yuan per ton."
On February 24, Wang Haohao, a natural gas analyst at Longzhong Information, said in an interview with Interface News that LNG prices in central and eastern China have recently risen sharply. On February 23, the transaction price of LNG in East China reached a maximum of 9600 yuan / ton, and Hunan in central China set a record high price of 10,000 yuan.
Interface News learned from the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center that on February 23, the national index of China's LNG ex-factory price was 8314 yuan / ton, up 1.4 times year-on-year; compared with 4790 yuan / ton on January 24, an increase of 67% month-on-month.
According to data from the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center, the national index of China's LNG ex-factory price fell to a low of 4545 yuan / ton on January 28, and has since begun to rise sharply. From February 18 to 23, the five-day increase reached 24%.
Chart source: Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center
The National Bureau of Statistics reported on February 24 that the domestic LNG price in mid-February this year rose by 28.7% over the previous month.
Zhuo Chuang Information natural gas analysts Guo Jianjian and Wang Haohao both told Interface News that the domestic LNG price rose sharply in this round, mainly because after the Spring Festival, the domestic large-scale area cooled down significantly, and the LNG procurement volume of urban combustion enterprises rose. Coupled with the resumption of work of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival, the amount of industrial gas consumption has increased, and there has been a tight supply situation in some areas.
On February 22, "wet snow" appeared in northern Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, northwestern Jiangxi and other places, and snowfall reached the order of blizzard in some areas. According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, the strongest period of this round of rain and snow process is from 8 o'clock on February 22 to 8 o'clock on the 23rd, and it is expected to basically end on February 24.
In Wang Haohao's view, the narrowing of the supply of some domestic LNG receiving stations is another factor supporting the rise in prices.
"A few days ago, some major suppliers have reduced the supply of LNG at receiving stations." Wang Haohao said that overall, domestic LNG resources are relatively sufficient, and they are not enough to support the current high price.
Guojian also said that this winter's domestic natural gas supply preparations are sufficient, and the supply situation is relatively optimistic. The seasonal LNG price driven up by the cooling also reminds that China's current gas storage and peak regulation capacity still needs to be improved.
According to the "China Natural Gas Development Report (2021)" jointly released by the National Energy Administration and other agencies, as of the 2020 heating season, China's gas storage capacity is about 23.4 billion cubic meters, accounting for 7.2% of total natural gas consumption, an increase of 2.9 percentage points over 2015, but still below the world average of 12%.
Guojian believes that with the rise in temperature in the future, LNG prices will show a downward trend.
Data monitored by Zhuo Chuang and Longzhong Information show that on February 24, LNG prices in the northwest region have begun to fall. Among them, the Inner Mongolia region fell by 200 yuan / ton on the day.
"Whether the decline continues remains to be seen." In Wang Haohao's view, domestic LNG has not yet formed a large-scale price reduction trend, and prices in North China and other regions are still firm.
Recently, affected by the deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the price of natural gas in Europe has also continued to rise.
On February 23, the Dutch TTF March gas futures, the weather vane of European gas prices, rose 9.6% to 87.45 euros/MWh, equivalent to $1,022/thousand cubic meters.
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